2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 168767 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« on: December 01, 2020, 06:13:42 PM »
Quote from: #SaveTheSenate on December 01, 2020, 01:32:17 PM
Christy IN!



Just no.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2020, 11:07:27 AM »
Sean Patrick Maloney has been elected DCCC chair-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2020, 11:17:58 AM »

Hard to say. I'm not much of a fan of Maloney because of his politics, and I'm a bit dismayed that the DCCC would choose an incumbent from a swingy seat given what happened to Bustos this year (redistricting could help Maloney but it won't be a strongly D district and would still be susceptible to Republican swings given the region's trends). Regardless, the DCCC spot is going to be a tough gig this cycle since Democratic losses are basically a given, so whoever runs it should keep minimizing Democratic losses in mind.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2021, 03:34:50 PM »
Looks like Kinzinger and Meijer have already gotten primary challengers:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2021, 01:19:05 PM »
Some early DCCC ad spending-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2021, 03:16:57 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on February 16, 2021, 02:22:39 PM
Quote from: Pollster on February 16, 2021, 12:19:33 PM

Dems best possible candidate (out performed Trump by almost 30 points), but he won't win this federal race and this will almost certainly result in the flip of his state house seat.



He's probably only running as a way to get out of what will clearly be a challenging legislative seat to hold in a Biden midterm.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2021, 03:36:03 PM »
Quote from: YE on February 16, 2021, 03:29:14 PM
Quote from: Young Conservative on February 16, 2021, 02:22:39 PM
Quote from: Pollster on February 16, 2021, 12:19:33 PM

Dems best possible candidate (out performed Trump by almost 30 points), but he won't win this federal race and this will almost certainly result in the flip of his state house seat.



This feels like a Hail Mary though I’m curious why he overpreform’s so much.

My guess is it has something to do with Lumbee voters splitting their tickets because of parochial issues (Graham is Lumbee and has been representing the area since before Trump made big gains with those voters).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2021, 03:20:42 PM »
IL-16: 2020 IL-14 primary candidate Catalina Lauf (R) files to run against Kinzinger-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2021, 03:47:49 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on March 02, 2021, 03:40:21 PM
https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2021/roll053.xml

LOL. Golden voted in favor of an amendment which is giving the right to vote to inmates.

A very dumb move considering how his district is leaning.

Maine actually has a system like this where it is legal for incarcerated people to vote from prison, so his vote makes a lot of sense in that regard.

Also, not sure what your post has to do with recruitment.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2021, 10:29:11 PM »
The DCCC released its offensive target list for 2022 yesterday:



It's obviously a much more limited list of seats (mostly just close losses in 2020), though there are a few districts that seem like possible redistricting targets - as well as ignoring several seats where redistricting will take once competitive seats off the table.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2021, 03:08:33 PM »
TJ Cox is out in CA-21 after poor Q1 fundraising-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2021, 10:26:21 AM »
The NRCC is adding a ten more districts to their target list:



CA-07, CA-16, CA-36, IL-03, MI-05, NY-04, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26, PA-06

(Obviously, all of these seats are pretty big stretches in their current forms, but it's likely in anticipation of these seats being changed significantly in redistricting.)
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2021, 12:16:41 PM »
State Sen. Tony Vargas appears to be in for NE-02-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2021, 11:28:40 AM »
Yesterday was the deadline to report Q2 Fundraising. Here's a list of fundraising in races targeted by the NRCC/DCCC per Rob Pyers-



(I don't put much stock in fundraising numbers anymore, but there are some interesting numbers in here nonetheless.)
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2021, 10:34:09 AM »
Remington polled the generic congressional ballot in seven competitive US House districts:

https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/AAN-September-Polling-Memo.pdf

CA-10 (Harder) - 49% Republican/42% Democrat
FL-07 (Murphy) - 48% R/45% D
IA-03 (Axne) - 51% R/42% D
MI-08 (Slotkin) - 52% R/43% D
MI-11 (Stevens) - 51% R/45% D
VA-02 (Luria) - 49% R/46% D
WA-08 (Schrier) - 49% R/45% D
Average - 50% Republican/44% Democrat
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2021, 04:36:46 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on September 14, 2021, 04:14:02 PM
These are not R vs. D but Biden approval numbers, but given how rarely we get any CD polling, I thought I’d post them here and not in the Biden Approval thread (feel free to move).

This is Fabrizio Ward (R) for the National Taxpayers Union:

Biden Approve/Disapprove:
 
AZ-1 (O'Halleran) – 39/60
PA-8 (Cartwright) – 40/57
PA-17 (Lamb) – 38/59
KS-3 (Davids) – 43/57

2020 results in those districts:

AZ-1: Biden 50-48
PA-8: Trump 52-47
PA-17: Biden 51-48
KS-3: Biden 54-44

https://www.ntu.org/publications/detail/ntu-poll-taxpayers-oppose-35-trillion-reconciliation-plan-energy-tax-hike-provisions

Obviously a partisan source, but Biden holding up better in PA-08 than AZ-01 and PA-17 particularly seems pretty doubtful (though I suppose that's in line with pollsters consistently finding overinflated Democratic numbers in the non-big metro upper Midwest).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2021, 11:47:34 AM »
NRCC poll of 85 "battleground" congressional districts-

GCB:
Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Biden approval: 45/51 (down from 51/45 in July)

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NRCC-October-Battleground-Memo-FINAL.pdf
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2021, 11:49:33 AM »
New Cook ratings for the CA seats-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2022, 05:04:31 PM »
NC-Cygnal: Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in North Carolina 50% to 44%-

https://www.cygn.al/poll-republicans-hold-generic-ballot-as-economic-and-inflation-concerns-grow/
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2022, 09:20:02 AM »
https://punchbowl.news/archive/5-18-22-punchbowl-news-am/

A DCCC internal has the GOP winning the generic ballot 47-39.

This article also mentions that CLF polled 16 districts that Biden won "by an average of eight points" and found a tied generic ballot in those districts:

Quote
Districts polled include seats held by Reps. Abigail Spanberger (Va.), Kim Schrier (Wash.), Mike Levin (Calif.), Kurt Schrader (Ore.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Susie Lee (Nev.) and Jahana Hayes (Conn.).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2022, 10:46:46 AM »
Cook has made some rating changes due to New York redistricting:



NY-11 has also been taken off the board.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2022, 03:48:19 PM »
Cook has rated the new NH-01 and NH-02 as tossups:



This means that they now have initial ratings for every new congressional district (see chart here)-

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2022, 04:41:54 PM »
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-primaries-june-8-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes, both in favor of Republicans:

IA-03 (Axne, D): Toss-up > Leans Republican
OR-05 (Open): Leans Democratic > Toss-up
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2022, 11:54:29 AM »
https://rollcall.com/2022/06/14/dccc-designates-four-more-members-for-special-protection/

The DCCC has added the incumbents in MD-06, NH-02, NM-03, and IN-01 to their list of Frontline Democrats.

They have also added candidates in a number of seats to their Red to Blue program which identifies possible Republican-held and open seats as targets:

-Jevin Hodge (AZ-01, Schweikert)
-Annette Taddeo (FL-27, Taddeo)
-Don Davis (NC-01, OPEN)
-Wiley Nickel (NC-13, OPEN)
-Jeff Jackson (NC-14, OPEN)
-Bridget Fleming (NY-01, OPEN)
-Francis Conole (NY-22, OPEN)
-Val Hoyle (OR-04, OPEN)
-Jamie McLeod Skinner (OR-05, OPEN)
-Andrea Salinas (OR-06, New Seat)
-Chris Deluzio (PA-17, OPEN)
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2022, 10:22:52 AM »
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D
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