2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

So you little Olowakandi,
NBC is now showing Republicans with their first GCB lead since 2014 (46-44) and Bidens JA down to 40 %.

RED WAVE Incoming!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So you little Olowakandi,
NBC is now showing Republicans with their first GCB lead since 2014 (46-44) and Bidens JA down to 40 %.

RED WAVE Incoming!!!

Trump netted Seats at 43(54 Approvals, these were Gallup final Approval n 2020 who cares what they show you criticize Biden and Trump had the same APPROVALS IS IT NOVEMBER NO ITS APRIL I AM NOT WORRIED


As far as I am concerned it's a 303 Map anyways these are the same recycled 39% Approvals that we had during the Debt Ceiling fight


It's Garland fault if we lose he acts like if Biden loses it affects us no it doesn't Trump is ginning for Decertified of Biden in WI, PA and WI but that's all we need to win anyways

Garland refuses to Prosecute Trump can we lose yes, is it likely no because on Hillary lost the Blue wall on a split verdict with Gary Johnson, 50K votes in WI, MI and PA first time since 1988

[Matty]

Not only does the gop lead among *RV* in the nbc poll, but there is a massive 17 point enthusiasm gap as well.

Fwiw, the gop rarely leads among RV in midterm polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's probably a Divided House no matter whom is in control and a  D Senate nothing in these ApprovaLs changes the fact that's it's a 303/235 map it can be as high as 335 FL, NC or as low as 270 but it means 270 WI, PA and MI , with turnout of 65/60 M or higher we can overcome these low Approvals

It's gonna be the same in 24 anyways it's just a matter if we can create enough wave insurance to keep the Senate D so the Rs can't decertify Biden in 24 , thru 26, including Collins defeat the Rs are the Dogs in the Senate 22/24)26 S not H maps follow the Blue wall

There is no way Trump is gonna gain back WI, PA and MI as a reelected Insurrectionists

Not ending the Pandemic was always gonna drag down Biden Approvals, but the vaccine didn't end the virus it contained or managed it like all vaccines do we need an HIV vaccine or Herpes one ASAPt

[ElectionsGuy]

NBC's little 2 point lead for R's is historically bad for Democrats. The same 46-44 spread was the result of a late October poll in 2010. In 2014, their last poll was a tie, 48-48. This poll has a consistent pattern of underestimating Republican margins.

What's more, check this out...

Democratic Party favorability

March 2022: 33/47
Late October, 2014: 36/43
Late October, 2010: 39/42

Republican Party favorability

March, 2022: 34/40
Late October, 2014: 29/47
Late October, 2010: 34/41

Right Direction/Wrong Track

March, 2022: 22/71
November, 2014: 27/63
Late October, 2014: 31/60

The Democratic Party has the highest unfavorables they've ever had, the wrong track number is also historically high, and Democrats have both the legislative and executive branches currently. One of the reasons I think 2010 was as strong or stronger than 2014 in the PV was that despite better Obama approval and Dem Party favorability, they had majorities of both chambers of Congress, so Republicans couldn't be blamed as easily. In 2014, Democrats could yell "Republican obstruction" and it could resonate to a degree with the House. Somewhat similar dynamic here as with 2010, just with a much narrower trifecta. There's a good chance this could be worse than 2010 or 2014 in sheer popular vote margins and depth of the gains in light blue districts.

[SnowLabrador]

The future looks very grim indeed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The future looks very grim indeed.

Lol Election Guy doesnt quote Trump net gained seats in 2018/20 when Trump was at 44% we are very far from 2014 where Election turnout was 82M it's 125M big difference I keep telling you this over and Over and Snowlabrador Dooming is already getting rid

Every election isn't the same or we Ds would have gotten 413 maps in 2018/20 when Trump has the exact same Approvals instead we got 303Maos


Lol 2010/2014 aren't the same as 18)20/22 we only had same day vote 82M v 125 M that's why Trump overperformed 44 Approvals in 20 Rs got 75 M votes we still got above that 80 M Election Guy isn't an analyst on NBC news he would be there not making R nut post on Atlas , a free non for profit website

[Gracile]

NC-Cygnal: Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in North Carolina 50% to 44%-

https://www.cygn.al/poll-republicans-hold-generic-ballot-as-economic-and-inflation-concerns-grow/

[jkmillion]

NC-Cygnal: Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in North Carolina 50% to 44%-

https://www.cygn.al/poll-republicans-hold-generic-ballot-as-economic-and-inflation-concerns-grow/

Yeah... it is a lot worse than that.

Because the Cygnal poll oversampled Democrats by roughly 13%.(37-48.8 right/wrong track when the national average is 27.6-65)(Democrats wouldn't have these numbers in a Democratic wave year, let alone a GOP wave year)

So, that would translate to Republicans having roughly a 16.5% advantage in the generic ballot in North Carolina.

[Unelectable Bystander]

NC-Cygnal: Republicans lead Democrats on the generic congressional ballot in North Carolina 50% to 44%-

https://www.cygn.al/poll-republicans-hold-generic-ballot-as-economic-and-inflation-concerns-grow/

Yeah... it is a lot worse than that.

Because the Cygnal poll oversampled Democrats by roughly 13%.(37-48.8 right/wrong track when the national average is 27.6-65)(Democrats wouldn't have these numbers in a Democratic wave year, let alone a GOP wave year)

So, that would translate to Republicans having roughly a 16.5% advantage in the generic ballot in North Carolina.

Don’t forget Biden’s approvals being better than the NW average in an R +6 state

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1511666293467983872

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wilsonsarajane/status/1511534752884420613

Democrats go all in on the selfish Democrat who really hurt them in CO 3rd.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/wilsonsarajane/status/1511534752884420613

Democrats go all in on the selfish Democrat who really hurt them in CO 3rd.

This is Boebert's seat right?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/wilsonsarajane/status/1511534752884420613

Democrats go all in on the selfish Democrat who really hurt them in CO 3rd.

This is Boebert's seat right?

That's correct. Sandoval probably is a worse fit for the district than Valdez, but overall, it matters little. Boebert will win reelection by a comfortable margin regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wilsonsarajane/status/1511534752884420613

Democrats go all in on the selfish Democrat who really hurt them in CO 3rd.

This is Boebert's seat right?

Yeah she's the one that claimed it was racist to exclude Pueblo from the 3rd district as she couldn't grift otherwise.   Actually messed up the whole map and helped Boebert.

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth has the GCB in New Jersey at D+10, 52-42.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_040722.pdf/

[Matty]

In line with an R+3 environment nationally

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1512114317684060165

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1512083022597836800

[SnowLabrador]

Fundraising doesn't matter.

[Minnesota Mike]

Fundraising doesn't matter.

Sure Jan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happened to that R Generic ballot lead R plus 3 well Kelly is ahead Rs surely want him to lose, but to who Masters and Brnovich aren't that well known like Kelly, Sinema and Gallego and McCain and Ducey that's why Katie Hobbs has a chance whom is Lake she isn't Ducey

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Generic ballot polling is barely worth your time this far from a general election, but the trends in Pew's tracking poll are affirming some narratives:









The gender gap becoming more fundamental than the education gap (but somehow only for men) will be the most dramatic post-Trump development in US voting patterns if it bears out.

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

[Ferguson97]

I have predicted this for a while. Especially once Gen Z becomes a larger voter group, because the political gender gap for young people is HUGE.

Yup. Gen Z men are still by far the most liberal of all male age groups - but because Gen Z women are SUPER liberal, it's the biggest gap.

[xavier110]

Generic ballot polling is barely worth your time this far from a general election, but the trends in Pew's tracking poll are affirming some narratives:









The gender gap becoming more fundamental than the education gap (but somehow only for men) will be the most dramatic post-Trump development in US voting patterns if it bears out.

Lol, go Miss Maggie Hassan!