2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Politician]

DCCC announces its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates and adds several frontline members: https://mailchi.mp/1aa185addc72/dccc-announces-changes-to-its-2022-house-battlefield-names-first-round-of-candidates-to-coveted-red-to-blue-list?e=f7ed7e5be5

Red to Blue:
Rudy Salas (CA-22, Valadao)
Jay Chen (CA-45, Steel)
Brittany Petersen (CO-07, Open Dem-held)
Christina Bohannon (IA-01, Miller-Meeks)
Liz Mathis (IA-02, Hinson)
Nikki Budzinski (IL-13, Open)
Hillary Scholten (MI-03, Meijer)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02, Herrell)
Jackie Gordon (NY-01, Open)
Max Rose (NY-11, Malliotakis)
Greg Landsman (OH-01, Chabot)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Open)

Frontline:
CT-02 (Courtney)
NC-06 (Manning)
PA-06 (Houlahan)

Yes, Democrats should definitely pour tons of money into winning back the #populists of IA-1 and IA-2 who will totally snap back to 2012 voting patterns without Trump on the ballot.

[Politician]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/wilsonsarajane/status/1511534752884420613

Democrats go all in on the selfish Democrat who really hurt them in CO 3rd.

This is Boebert's seat right?

[Politician]

Grifters gonna grift.

[Politician]

FWIW Cook has moved 8 races rightward to either lean D or tossup, and Amy Walters said R’s have very little chance of not taking the house

Congratulations 47th President Trump in that case. I used to want to move to Canada, but the UK or Australia may be a better option, to be further from the US.

I'm pretty bullish on Trump's 2024 chances, but a bad midterm for an incumbent doesn't necessarily mean losing re-election. What it does mean is that Biden will have to completely change his approach to everything in his last two years and somehow turn the political environment around.

Except that Republicans taking the House and swing state Governorships means they can overturn the election if a Democrat wins.

I highly doubt the GOP would attempt to steal an election if Biden won the 2024 election decisively and the election is called by the next day. They would only try to steal an election if it was extremely close like 2020 was.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1521858137753542656?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

YouGov has D+6 on the generic ballot with no undecideds. Does OC run YouGov's polls?

[Politician]

I also think a lot will depend on individual GOP candidates, the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women....a lot of people haven't tuned into everything just yet.

I love how quickly you guys switched from "the increasing salience of abortion" to "the increasing salience of abortion after red state legislatures make laws punishing women" and from "after people hear about the Roe v. Wade leak" to "a lot of people haven’t tuned in to everything just yet" after post-leak polling & primary results didn’t produce your desired result and didn’t confirm your preconceived narrative. You couldn’t ask for a better (implicit) admission that the Democratic narrative about abortion dramatically changing the state of the race was always just blatant wishful thinking akin to the 'low-propensity Trump voters will stay home in 2022' (which you were also very vocal about).

Throw in the extremely predictable "candidate quality" takes...

it seems like GOP is going to win generic races and probably blow some big swing state races with horrible candidates.

and some poll 'unskewing'...

Looks like R+4 not 7

and you have your perfect recipe for some delicious coping mechanism.

You gotta be kidding if you think some candidates that take Todd Akin level stances on abortion in statewides races in PA, MI, NV won't cost the GOP some seats. I said GOP is going to take the House minus something completely unforeseen. But laws that have the support of 27% of the country will
hurt the party enacting them, not unlike the way the far left activists nearly poisoned Dems into losing both the presidency and the House in 2020.

And yes candidate quality matters, Mastriano is not Glenn Youngkin. As far as state laws go, don't rule out something completely ridiculous coming after the decision is handed down. Roe being overturned is different than previous years because it was always just a hypothetical.

The problem is that 95% of R candidates who have yet to be elected are declared ‘weak’ by democratic posters on this board. Glenn Youngkin being a recent example. I remember the day after he won the primary everyone talking about how his nomination clinched the win for McAullife. It’s hard to take candidate quality takes seriously after that.

Exactly. It made me laugh a bit that Youngkin is now the epitome of good R candidate (it’s probably true), because not only did people on here think that he was no better than a generic R but most actually thought he was an awful candidate

Rs always want to talk about how Ds narrowly lost VA by just two pts but we won the Cali recall and we won NJ


All Elder needed was to hold Newsom to 50% and he not NEWSOM would be Governor and Elder couldn't do that

We've gotten to the point where Atlas Democrats are bragging about wins in CA and NJ (the latter of which was significantly closer than expected). Sad!

[Politician]

Marist:
GCB D 47, R 42
Biden 39/56

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099844097/abortion-polling-roe-v-wade-supreme-court-draft-opinion
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-abortion-rights-may-2022/

Democrats also got a boost on which party Americans want to control Congress. By a 47%-to-42% margin, this survey showed voters would cast their ballot in favor of a Democrat in their local congressional district if the election were held today.

For Democrats, that is a net increase on the so-called congressional ballot test of 8 points from last month's survey, when 47% said they would vote for a Republican, as compared to 44% who said they would vote for a Democrat. Those numbers were within the margin of error, but it was the first time in eight years that Republicans had done that well on the question in the Marist poll.

Also from the article/relevant to previous convo:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been circulating its latest internal battleground districts poll among the party's House members. Conducted before the Supreme Court leak, it showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat by a 47%-to-39% margin in battleground districts. The survey was first reported by Punchbowl News and confirmed by NPR.

A Democratic official says their polling also shows Democratic House incumbents are averaging about 5 points better than a generic candidate, however.

Marist is literal trash lmao

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1529125971089149953

Huh, I thought Republicans were ideological purists and Democrats were the big tent party.

[Politician]

Does anybody know which races cook changed today? It’s behind the paywall and charging that much is ridiculous

Most of these are due to the national environment moving towards Republicans.
AZ-4: Likely D->Lean D
CA-40: Likely R->Lean R (Kim at risk of missing top two)
CA-49: Likely D->Lean D
CT-2: Safe D->Likely D
CT-5: Likely D->Lean D
IL-14: Lean D->Likely D
MN-1: Likely R->Safe R (Carnahan not nominated)
NV-1: Lean D->Tossup
OR-5: Lean D->Tossup (Skinner nominated)
PA-1: Likely R->Safe R
PA-7: Tossup->Lean R
PA-10: Likely R->Safe R

[Politician]

I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

[Politician]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-june-22-2022/

Sabato's Crystal Ball made three rating changes today, all in favor of Republicans:

AK-AL Special- Likely R > Safe R
CA-45 (Steel)- Toss-up > Lean R
VA-10 (Wexton)- Safe D > Likely D

The Alaska and CA-45 moves are reasonable. The VA-10 move is laughable.

Real "NJ -> Leans D" 2018 vibes

Real ironic coming from the guy who believed Democrats were winning in Trump +double digit seats in 2020!

[Politician]

Meanwhile back in reality, Trafalgar has R+9 on the generic ballot

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nat-generic-ballot-0627/

[Politician]

Meanwhile back in reality, Trafalgar has R+9 on the generic ballot

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nat-generic-ballot-0627/

What was the survey period for this? It just says ‘June’…and I believe that this wa what the generic ballot was among LV for November as of a week or two ago. Today is a completely different story, however.

To be fair, this was before the Dobbs decision.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541900609187635201

Even with Dobbs, I wonder if PA-12 could be closer than expected just because of the people who vote for Republican Mike Doyle and think they're voting for the retiring incumbent.

Not to mention the Democrat is an AOC/Omar type leftist.

[Politician]

Echelon Insights, July 15-18: D+4 among LV, D+7 among RV.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1549857224461369344

More details in other tweets in the thread.

[Politician]

Wow, this forum is truly a special level of dumb. RV polls don't mean anything.

[Politician]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

Plus, Republicans are actually doing fine on the generic ballot excluding crap RV polls.

I get Atlas is going to live in denial and thinks 2022 will be a D+1 year or something, but it's not going to happen.