PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Figueira]

Federalist just came out with a painfully silly attack on Fetterman.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/28/john-fettermans-trump-voting-republican-parents-are-card-carrying-democrats/

“We want to tell you something about John Fetterman. He was raised by two Trump-voting Republicans right here in this house in York,” Karl and Susan Fetterman claim in the 30-second video. “Us!”

The problem is that Fetterman’s parents are not Trump supporters or Republicans. According to voting records obtained by The Federalist, Susan and Karl Fetterman have been voting Democrat for at least six years—beginning when the couple registered as Democrats to vote in the 2016 primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania#Democratic_primary

Not sure why this is silly. He had his parents feature in an ad explicitly for his campaign and in that ad they blatantly lied expecting not to get called out on it.

You realize that voting records don't actually show who someone voted for, right?

[Pollster]

You realize that voting records don't actually show who someone voted for, right?

If only…do you have any idea how much easier my job would be if they did?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Huh, finally an article that is a bit critical of Oz for once!

(but InsiderAdvantage and Co/efficient told me he was winning 25-30% of the black vote )

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1586092995157409796

I've said before that Fetterman will still overwhelmingly win the black vote. The vast majority of black voters are Yellow Dog Democrats who detest the Republican Party and all that it stands for. My uncle is an example of this. Most of us will vote straight-ticket Democratic, as we have for generations, and this year is no different. Republicans have much greater potential for minority gains with Asians and Hispanics.

Republicans always had higher baseline levels of support (i.e. >10%) with Asians and Latinos. I don't expect that to change anytime soon.

This raises the question of how much support among black voters would be an overperformance for Oz. 20% sounds out of the question for the foreseeable future, but 10-15% might be realistic for PA Republicans?

Nor was Ms. Bervine swayed by attack ads aimed at Mr. Fetterman’s advocacy for clemency for long-incarcerated men. “I know enough to know that there are a lot of men that are in prison that shouldn’t be in prison,” she said.

That was a common point of view on 52nd Street, a formerly grand corridor of Black entertainment and commerce that has struggled in recent years. Some businesses were damaged during unrest in 2020 over police shootings of Black people nationally. Banners fixed to lamp posts urge, “Never Lose Hope.”

On the sidewalk outside a secondhand appliance store, Barry Williams, 67, was cleaning a stove with steel wool.

A homeowner, he was concerned about rising costs — “the food taxes, the property tax, gas — first it went down, then it went right back up again.”

But Mr. Williams, who said he was a Democrat who voted regularly, pushed back on the Republican message that inflation was tied to Democratic policies in Washington. “I think it’s everybody’s fault,” he said. “I can’t blame it on the Democrats.”

[Inmate Trump]

Federalist just came out with a painfully silly attack on Fetterman.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/28/john-fettermans-trump-voting-republican-parents-are-card-carrying-democrats/

“We want to tell you something about John Fetterman. He was raised by two Trump-voting Republicans right here in this house in York,” Karl and Susan Fetterman claim in the 30-second video. “Us!”

The problem is that Fetterman’s parents are not Trump supporters or Republicans. According to voting records obtained by The Federalist, Susan and Karl Fetterman have been voting Democrat for at least six years—beginning when the couple registered as Democrats to vote in the 2016 primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania#Democratic_primary

Not sure why this is silly. He had his parents feature in an ad explicitly for his campaign and in that ad they blatantly lied expecting not to get called out on it.

You realize that voting records don't actually show who someone voted for, right?

No joke, there's a girl at my work who continues to spread a lie that she was on some official website showing that multiple ballots were cast in her name for Joe Biden. She says that's proof of voter fraud in 2020. I told her that's not legit, and that she couldn't have pulled up a real website displaying who people voted for. She insists she's right, but when I ask her to display this mystery website she somehow can't find it anymore on google.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Federalist just came out with a painfully silly attack on Fetterman.

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/28/john-fettermans-trump-voting-republican-parents-are-card-carrying-democrats/

“We want to tell you something about John Fetterman. He was raised by two Trump-voting Republicans right here in this house in York,” Karl and Susan Fetterman claim in the 30-second video. “Us!”

The problem is that Fetterman’s parents are not Trump supporters or Republicans. According to voting records obtained by The Federalist, Susan and Karl Fetterman have been voting Democrat for at least six years—beginning when the couple registered as Democrats to vote in the 2016 primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania#Democratic_primary

Not sure why this is silly. He had his parents feature in an ad explicitly for his campaign and in that ad they blatantly lied expecting not to get called out on it.

You realize that voting records don't actually show who someone voted for, right?

No joke, there's a girl at my work who continues to spread a lie that she was on some official website showing that multiple ballots were cast in her name for Joe Biden. She says that's proof of voter fraud in 2020. I told her that's not legit, and that she couldn't have pulled up a real website displaying who people voted for. She insists she's right, but when I ask her to display this mystery website she somehow can't find it anymore on google.

It's a waste of time to try and talk reason to such people.  I had one tell me about the conspiracy theory of Pennsylvania getting more absentee ballots returned than were sent out.  This is false (it was comparing ballots sent out in the primary to returns in the general election).  I went on the PA SoS website and showed him the actual numbers; it didn't help.  See the quote in my signature.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

John sounded great today! Much better than the debate, so I imagine there were some nerves involved at the debate.

I did get to meet Malcolm as well, so that was a real highlight

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

I have to imagine that message is pretty ingrained in voters minds at this voice. We’ll see how much if at all it impacts how they vote.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

Certainly a message that has been effective throughout this campaign, oh wait.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

I have to imagine that message is pretty ingrained in voters minds at this voice. We’ll see how much if at all it impacts how they vote.

Repetition works, voters aren't political junkies and need messages hammered home to them for them to start to get it.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ColbyItkowitz/status/1585794501947408384

But in interviews with 15 voters across the state on Wednesday and Thursday, Fetterman supporters and leaners said the debate did not deter them from casting their ballots for him or from likely doing so.

J. William Reynolds, the Democratic mayor of Bethlehem, a swing area, commended Fetterman for not dodging the debate.

Umstattd sat across from his girlfriend’s brother, Carlos Reyes, at a diner in the Philadelphia suburbs and debated the issue. Both are registered Republicans who voted for President Biden. Reyes, like Umstattd, is leaning toward voting for Fetterman.

“I thought he’d do a little better than he did,” said Viola, a Democrat. “Oz talked fast so Fetterman couldn’t follow him.” Still, Viola said he plans to vote for Fetterman.

Ben, 54, who spoke on the condition he be identified by his first name only, was finishing breakfast with his wife and son, who attends Villanova University nearby. An Oz supporter, he said Fetterman’s debate performance “raised questions” about the Democrat’s “capacity to function.”

Sitting alone eating a salmon salad, Mark Cross, 61, who is also a registered Republican, said he is supporting Fetterman and did not vote for Donald Trump in the past two presidential elections. He said he can’t support Oz because of his associations with Trump. The former president endorsed Oz in the Republican primary and has campaigned for him in the general election.

“The Republican Party is a piece of trash,” Cross said.

David Stash said he had spoken to Fetterman three or four times the past two weeks and winced watching Tuesday’s debate. “It just seemed so static, so immersive, it threw him off,” said Stash, 73, a volunteer at a store that Fetterman’s wife runs in Braddock, Pa.

Stash said his support is unwavering for his friend.

It was nice of them to include two actual Republicans (one who lives in PA & is voting for Oz, and the other being the RNC Chair) and someone whose political affiliation they didn't identify - other than to say she voted for Trump twice - among all the Masonpublicans and outright Democrats in their anecdotes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oz still narrowly leads, if we lose this seat I know Malcolm Keynatta would have been the best candidate

[Roll Roons]

I know newspaper endorsements probably don't matter that much, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed Oz: https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2022/10/30/pennsylvania-senate-endorsement-mehmet-oz-john-fetterman/stories/202210210102

I think they lean slightly to the right, but FWIW, they did endorse Shapiro.

[Sestak]

I know newspaper endorsements probably don't matter that much, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed Oz: https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2022/10/30/pennsylvania-senate-endorsement-mehmet-oz-john-fetterman/stories/202210210102

I think they lean slightly to the right, but FWIW, they did endorse Shapiro.

‘Lean slightly to the right’ is an understatement - since 2018 they’ve been run by the (vehemently pro-Trump) editorial board of The Blade in Toledo; endorsed Trump in 2020 and are one of the most right-wing papers in the country.

[Eraserhead]

I know newspaper endorsements probably don't matter that much, but the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed Oz: https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2022/10/30/pennsylvania-senate-endorsement-mehmet-oz-john-fetterman/stories/202210210102

I think they lean slightly to the right, but FWIW, they did endorse Shapiro.

‘Lean slightly to the right’ is an understatement - since 2018 they’ve been run by the (vehemently pro-Trump) editorial board of The Blade in Toledo; endorsed Trump in 2020 and are one of the most right-wing papers in the country.

Really the only thing that's notable is that they endorsed Shapiro.

[South Dakota Democrat]

At this point I'm hoping that Shapiro wins by a big enough margin to pull Fetterman over the line.

[Dani Rose]

If the EV numbers get better for us or at least hold up (hoping for the former), I'm not really very concerned about this final wave of endorsements and partisan polls. Other than a medical emergency out of his control, Fetterman has done basically everything right, Oz is still disliked even by people who are voting for him, and Shapiro has respectable odds of landing a double-digit victory at the top of the ticket.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is gonna win enough if Shapiro wins 55/45 that will easily pull Fetterman across and I am expecting Evers to win 53/46 and pull Barnes over and Sisolak pulling CCM over

[wbrocks67]

If the EV numbers get better for us or at least hold up (hoping for the former), I'm not really very concerned about this final wave of endorsements and partisan polls. Other than a medical emergency out of his control, Fetterman has done basically everything right, Oz is still disliked even by people who are voting for him, and Shapiro has respectable odds of landing a double-digit victory at the top of the ticket.

I'd say the EV #s we have for PA are some of the best for any swing state at this point.

[wbrocks67]

It's wild... it's like Oz is just straight up not doing public events. I don't expect him to hold big rallies, but he's not doing anything where it's open to the public. He seems to be just doing small curated "discussions"

[Dani Rose]

It's wild... it's like Oz is just straight up not doing public events. I don't expect him to hold big rallies, but he's not doing anything where it's open to the public. He seems to be just doing small curated "discussions"

I can't exactly blame him when he generates a new soundbite every time he opens his mouth.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1586871733713256450

[Senator Incitatus]

It's wild... it's like Oz is just straight up not doing public events. I don't expect him to hold big rallies, but he's not doing anything where it's open to the public. He seems to be just doing small curated "discussions"

I can't exactly blame him when he generates a new soundbite every time he opens his mouth.

It's more a matter of not needing to do public events.

[jd7171]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

I have to imagine that message is pretty ingrained in voters minds at this voice. We’ll see how much if at all it impacts how they vote.

I know, it's why I'm not voting for him. I know a few others who are doing the same. Some of these people voted for Trump twice. I feel Fetterman's WWC appeal is overrated. I feel that Oz trying to buy a seat could be a reason why Fetterman might do better in WWC areas. The other reason I feel this way is with the race being a tossup...if Fetterman is doing better with these voters due to appeal then where is Oz making up for it? Has to be the suburbs IMO. I can't see Oz doing better than Trump in rural areas. I feel the map will be nearly identical to 2020.  I think the key could be Shapiro's margin, if he wins big enough then there might be enough Indies and moderates to pull him over the finish line.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1587031682422644736?s=46&t=9EMTBE_...

It looks like the attacks backfired