PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

One of my younger colleagues today pointed out to me that "candidates from western Pennsylvania always overperform their polls" - I didn't take a hard look but just based on 2022 polls in both party's primaries it does appear to have some footing to it. Posting here incase somebody else wants to do a more in-depth look - happy to give observations as I can if somebody compiles.

Should be interesting since you have the ultimate PA battle: Fetterman (West) and Shapiro (east) - though I don't think we usually have statewide candidates from SEPA, so that should be interesting.

[kwabbit]

One of my younger colleagues today pointed out to me that "candidates from western Pennsylvania always overperform their polls" - I didn't take a hard look but just based on 2022 polls in both party's primaries it does appear to have some footing to it. Posting here incase somebody else wants to do a more in-depth look - happy to give observations as I can if somebody compiles.

There haven't been any truly competitive PA generals recently to test this. The GOP candidate from Western PA beat their polls in 4 straight gubernatorial elections, but that might just be blowouts being a little tighter because of partisanship.

I think that's true in primaries though. The candidates are more interchangeable within the same party, so the home region effect is greater.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I'm starting to think Mastriano is playing a long con and he's actually a Dem plant. Though I suppose that was a theory about Trump too.

[Pollster]

One of my younger colleagues today pointed out to me that "candidates from western Pennsylvania always overperform their polls" - I didn't take a hard look but just based on 2022 polls in both party's primaries it does appear to have some footing to it. Posting here incase somebody else wants to do a more in-depth look - happy to give observations as I can if somebody compiles.

There haven't been any truly competitive PA generals recently to test this. The GOP candidate from Western PA beat their polls in 4 straight gubernatorial elections, but that might just be blowouts being a little tighter because of partisanship.

I think that's true in primaries though. The candidates are more interchangeable within the same party, so the home region effect is greater.

Interesting, suppose this election will be a good test case to see if it's true of all western PA candidates or just Republican ones.

[Real Texan Politics]

Probably still too early to say the race is over, but at this point I’d rather be Oz than Fetterman.
https://twitter.com/andrewhclark/status/1588217281225494529?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6D...

[Pollster]

I don't think there's a race this year perplexing me as much as this one. The trendline in polls here and nationally pretty clearly are pointing to an Oz victory, and suggesting otherwise I think would be partisan hackery.

That being said, given those same trendlines, you would expect Oz to have hit 50% somewhere by now. Even the Republican-aligned pollsters aren't getting him past 48%, and the "high quality" nonpartisan polls are even still showing him in the mid-40's. Obviously Republicans rely heavily on consolidating undecided voters, but given how rapidly the environment has deteriorated for Democrats over the course of September and especially October in addition to the heavy coverage of Fetterman's stroke and the onslaught of GOP outside group spending, I do think it is a sign of serious weakness that there hasn't been even a partisan outlet that's shown him at majority support yet.

The culprit could very well be Oz's dismal favorability rating preventing that real pull-away from happening. I maintain that Fetterman is performing exactly where one could expect a generic Dem to be and that he doesn't have any unique appeal or strength that many think he does because of the way he looks. So perhaps the question boils down to whether or not a generic Democrat beats a flawed Republican in this climate. The governor race is likely showing us what strong D vs. flawed R looks like, so it's an imperfect comparison at best. And even if Oz does struggle more than usual for a Republican with that final undecided batch, his 48% could certainly still be enough to win if they choose to sit the race out.

Make no mistake, I'd rather be Oz right now. But I'm going back and forth on how strongly I feel that way.

Also possible that I will press "post" and an Oz at 50% poll will promptly be published.

[Eraserhead]

Probably still too early to say the race is over, but at this point I’d rather be Oz than Fetterman.
https://twitter.com/andrewhclark/status/1588217281225494529?s=46&t=U9YI9Xc6D...

Two explicitly Republican polls in there and no Monmouth. Junk it!

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think there's a race this year perplexing me as much as this one. The trendline in polls here and nationally pretty clearly are pointing to an Oz victory, and suggesting otherwise I think would be partisan hackery.

That being said, given those same trendlines, you would expect Oz to have hit 50% somewhere by now. Even the Republican-aligned pollsters aren't getting him past 48%, and the "high quality" nonpartisan polls are even still showing him in the mid-40's. Obviously Republicans rely heavily on consolidating undecided voters, but given how rapidly the environment has deteriorated for Democrats over the course of September and especially October in addition to the heavy coverage of Fetterman's stroke and the onslaught of GOP outside group spending, I do think it is a sign of serious weakness that there hasn't been even a partisan outlet that's shown him at majority support yet.

The culprit could very well be Oz's dismal favorability rating preventing that real pull-away from happening. I maintain that Fetterman is performing exactly where one could expect a generic Dem to be and that he doesn't have any unique appeal or strength that many think he does because of the way he looks. So perhaps the question boils down to whether or not a generic Democrat beats a flawed Republican in this climate. The governor race is likely showing us what strong D vs. flawed R looks like, so it's an imperfect comparison at best. And even if Oz does struggle more than usual for a Republican with that final undecided batch, his 48% could certainly still be enough to win if they choose to sit the race out.

Make no mistake, I'd rather be Oz right now. But I'm going back and forth on how strongly I feel that way.

Also possible that I will press "post" and an Oz at 50% poll will promptly be published.

To me, what has baffled me the most is Fetterman's support (according to polls) has fallen from 51.2% to just 46.6% in the average. That is a very rare occurrence, and the only time that tends to happen in a well polled race is when one side has some sort of massive scandal, and the stroke alone def doesn't explain nor justify that sort of drop. I'd be curious to hear from those in PA about why they think this might be occuring.

Oz gaining was always going to happen; getting a mere 40% of the vote was unrealistic so I'm not surprised at all that he's gained. Moreso that his gains seemed to have come at Fetterman's expense.

I'd still argue between Fetterman and Oz, "candidate quality" dynamics work in Fetterman's favor at the end of the day, but perhaps not by as much as some had earlier assumed.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman definitely ramping up the national and local TV - did CNN Mornings the other day, did NBC10 (Philly station) yesterday and now CBS today/tomorrow

I don't believe Oz is doing any mainstream network interviews.

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1588261582227886082

[wbrocks67]

I don't think there's a race this year perplexing me as much as this one. The trendline in polls here and nationally pretty clearly are pointing to an Oz victory, and suggesting otherwise I think would be partisan hackery.

That being said, given those same trendlines, you would expect Oz to have hit 50% somewhere by now. Even the Republican-aligned pollsters aren't getting him past 48%, and the "high quality" nonpartisan polls are even still showing him in the mid-40's. Obviously Republicans rely heavily on consolidating undecided voters, but given how rapidly the environment has deteriorated for Democrats over the course of September and especially October in addition to the heavy coverage of Fetterman's stroke and the onslaught of GOP outside group spending, I do think it is a sign of serious weakness that there hasn't been even a partisan outlet that's shown him at majority support yet.

The culprit could very well be Oz's dismal favorability rating preventing that real pull-away from happening. I maintain that Fetterman is performing exactly where one could expect a generic Dem to be and that he doesn't have any unique appeal or strength that many think he does because of the way he looks. So perhaps the question boils down to whether or not a generic Democrat beats a flawed Republican in this climate. The governor race is likely showing us what strong D vs. flawed R looks like, so it's an imperfect comparison at best. And even if Oz does struggle more than usual for a Republican with that final undecided batch, his 48% could certainly still be enough to win if they choose to sit the race out.

Make no mistake, I'd rather be Oz right now. But I'm going back and forth on how strongly I feel that way.

Also possible that I will press "post" and an Oz at 50% poll will promptly be published.

Yeah, depending on if the pollster has pushed, Fetterman is the only one who has got close to 50 or cleared it on numerous occasions - 49/50 in Siena, 51 in Marist, 51 in CBS/YouGov (52 prev), 49 in F&M, 48 in Monmouth, etc. If there is wavering support, he just needs to lock it in.

Oz's favorables are still just so terrible, that it certainly feels like he is hitting a ceiling of support.

Doesn't help that the only time he's at 47-48 in a lot of these polls is with getting weird support like high young vote, or high Hispanic vote, or winning Independents by ~25.

The polls are also kind of all over the place with men/women. Some have Fetterman doing okay with Men, others having him losing them by 10-12. Then some have Fetterman only winning Women by 4-6 points, others have him closer to 10-15 (Fox had it at 18)

[South Dakota Democrat]

This is going to be a close race either way, but Fetterman has a lot going against him with the overall mood shifting back to the Republicans. I have a feeling the Republicans may end up doing better than we expect with inflation raging on, savings dwindling, and the stock market crashing.

None of that is Biden's fault, but he's the President, so voters will blame him.

Excuse me?  The Dow gained 14% in October -- its best month since January 1976!

Zoom out a little bit on the S&P 500

Or worse, the Nasdaq. It has been a very bad year for my portfolio.

Same for me.

[bagelman]

I don't think there's a race this year perplexing me as much as this one. The trendline in polls here and nationally pretty clearly are pointing to an Oz victory, and suggesting otherwise I think would be partisan hackery.

That being said, given those same trendlines, you would expect Oz to have hit 50% somewhere by now. Even the Republican-aligned pollsters aren't getting him past 48%, and the "high quality" nonpartisan polls are even still showing him in the mid-40's. Obviously Republicans rely heavily on consolidating undecided voters, but given how rapidly the environment has deteriorated for Democrats over the course of September and especially October in addition to the heavy coverage of Fetterman's stroke and the onslaught of GOP outside group spending, I do think it is a sign of serious weakness that there hasn't been even a partisan outlet that's shown him at majority support yet.

The culprit could very well be Oz's dismal favorability rating preventing that real pull-away from happening. I maintain that Fetterman is performing exactly where one could expect a generic Dem to be and that he doesn't have any unique appeal or strength that many think he does because of the way he looks. So perhaps the question boils down to whether or not a generic Democrat beats a flawed Republican in this climate. The governor race is likely showing us what strong D vs. flawed R looks like, so it's an imperfect comparison at best. And even if Oz does struggle more than usual for a Republican with that final undecided batch, his 48% could certainly still be enough to win if they choose to sit the race out.

Make no mistake, I'd rather be Oz right now. But I'm going back and forth on how strongly I feel that way.

Also possible that I will press "post" and an Oz at 50% poll will promptly be published.

To me, what has baffled me the most is Fetterman's support (according to polls) has fallen from 51.2% to just 46.6% in the average. That is a very rare occurrence, and the only time that tends to happen in a well polled race is when one side has some sort of massive scandal, and the stroke alone def doesn't explain nor justify that sort of drop. I'd be curious to hear from those in PA about why they think this might be occuring.

Oz gaining was always going to happen; getting a mere 40% of the vote was unrealistic so I'm not surprised at all that he's gained. Moreso that his gains seemed to have come at Fetterman's expense.

I'd still argue between Fetterman and Oz, "candidate quality" dynamics work in Fetterman's favor at the end of the day, but perhaps not by as much as some had earlier assumed.

Fetterman did suffer a "scandal" in his stroke. It's so wrong to consider that a scandal but I imagine lots of have the wrong idea of what that means for him. I also still suspect that, although based on factual events, the "Oz hates puppies" storyline may have actually hurt Fetterman more than helped possibly because of a "boy cried wolf" effect.

[H. Ross Peron]

https://twitter.com/SusquehannaPR/status/1587979072516378626
If this holds true, I was right about Fetterman massively underperforming in the Philly suburbs among "country club" republicans Romney Biden voters types.

It also means that Fetterman will hold up well or even expand his support among noncollege white voters compared to Biden.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think there's a race this year perplexing me as much as this one. The trendline in polls here and nationally pretty clearly are pointing to an Oz victory, and suggesting otherwise I think would be partisan hackery.

That being said, given those same trendlines, you would expect Oz to have hit 50% somewhere by now. Even the Republican-aligned pollsters aren't getting him past 48%, and the "high quality" nonpartisan polls are even still showing him in the mid-40's. Obviously Republicans rely heavily on consolidating undecided voters, but given how rapidly the environment has deteriorated for Democrats over the course of September and especially October in addition to the heavy coverage of Fetterman's stroke and the onslaught of GOP outside group spending, I do think it is a sign of serious weakness that there hasn't been even a partisan outlet that's shown him at majority support yet.

The culprit could very well be Oz's dismal favorability rating preventing that real pull-away from happening. I maintain that Fetterman is performing exactly where one could expect a generic Dem to be and that he doesn't have any unique appeal or strength that many think he does because of the way he looks. So perhaps the question boils down to whether or not a generic Democrat beats a flawed Republican in this climate. The governor race is likely showing us what strong D vs. flawed R looks like, so it's an imperfect comparison at best. And even if Oz does struggle more than usual for a Republican with that final undecided batch, his 48% could certainly still be enough to win if they choose to sit the race out.

Make no mistake, I'd rather be Oz right now. But I'm going back and forth on how strongly I feel that way.

Also possible that I will press "post" and an Oz at 50% poll will promptly be published.

To me, what has baffled me the most is Fetterman's support (according to polls) has fallen from 51.2% to just 46.6% in the average. That is a very rare occurrence, and the only time that tends to happen in a well polled race is when one side has some sort of massive scandal, and the stroke alone def doesn't explain nor justify that sort of drop. I'd be curious to hear from those in PA about why they think this might be occuring.

Oz gaining was always going to happen; getting a mere 40% of the vote was unrealistic so I'm not surprised at all that he's gained. Moreso that his gains seemed to have come at Fetterman's expense.

I'd still argue between Fetterman and Oz, "candidate quality" dynamics work in Fetterman's favor at the end of the day, but perhaps not by as much as some had earlier assumed.

Fetterman did suffer a "scandal" in his stroke. It's so wrong to consider that a scandal but I imagine lots of have the wrong idea of what that means for him. I also still suspect that, although based on factual events, the "Oz hates puppies" storyline may have actually hurt Fetterman more than helped possibly because of a "boy cried wolf" effect.

Unless I’m missing something, I feel like there has to be more than just that.

Also the puppies story was objectively bad for Oz, even if it didn’t hurt him. No way it hurt *Fetterman*

[wbrocks67]

There is no way Oz is winning postgraduate voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oprah endorses Fetterman. Could help him win over some undecided African American votes.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1588345538524553216?s=20&t=6XeeUUx3...

[citizenZ]

Oprah endorses Fetterman. Could help him win over some undecided African American votes.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1588345538524553216?s=20&t=6XeeUUx3...

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

We all remember (actually we don't and I'm one of the olds) what happened the last time Oprah made a surprise endorsement. She's been very quiet since then! And she's endorsing Democrats in other states too.

Wasn't Oz even brought onto the scene by Oprah or was that just Dr. Phil?

[Ferguson97]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

[DaleCooper]

Oprah is responsible for Dr. Oz, yes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oprah is responsible for Dr. Oz, yes.

Perhaps this is her way of atoning for that.

[citizenZ]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

Some white male voters could get tired of the racial politics of the Democratic Party. You're seeing ads like this:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1587645902730280961

I think this issue could also become more relevant when the Supreme Court overturns Affirmative Action.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

Some white male voters could get tired of the racial politics of the Democratic Party. You're seeing ads like this:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1587645902730280961

I think this issue could also become more relevant when the Supreme Court overturns Affirmative Action.

What does any of this have anything to do with her endorsing Fetterman?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

Some white male voters could get tired of the racial politics of the Democratic Party. You're seeing ads like this:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1587645902730280961

I think this issue could also become more relevant when the Supreme Court overturns Affirmative Action.

Affirmative Action is toxic to the Asian community, even for Asians who lean left, so the issue being brought up is not a good thing for Dems.

[citizenZ]

Could help boost white male turnout here in PA.

How?

Some white male voters could get tired of the racial politics of the Democratic Party. You're seeing ads like this:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1587645902730280961
I think this issue could also become more relevant when the Supreme Court overturns Affirmative Action.

What does any of this have anything to do with her endorsing Fetterman?

I think CNN called it a "white-lash" a few years ago.