PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[ProgressiveModerate]

PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

I think Dean in particular would've been toxic for central Pennsylvania. She is like Rs textbook definition of a liberal elitist.

[ProgressiveModerate]

PA Dems were handed a golden candidate on a silver platter, but have instead decided that it should be a two-way race between a man who refuses to wear pants and is possibly scared of Black people, and the man who is the human equivalent of corn flakes.

Honestly, the best candidates for Democrats chose not to run (Madeline Dean, Susan Wild, Mary Gay Scanlon).

I think Dean in particular would've been toxic for central Pennsylvania. She is like Rs textbook definition of a liberal elitist.

So, not really all that different from Fetterman, then.

Fetterman at least tries and has a decent amount of charisma. Dean's charisma just isn't there IMO.

[ProgressiveModerate]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

I disagree. I think he can appeal to suburbanite women who remember him as the TV guy who Oprah likes.
And it's not like Oz is running a far-right campaign, so fair his campaign seems focused on healthcare and energy.

Problem is that Oz has ruined that image, with the last year of his far-right campaign and him being attached to Trump now. Not gonna do well with suburban women at this point, and his campaign *has* been far-right. The "issues" he's been raising since he started his campaign have  not just been "healthcare" and "energy"

Lol he's spouted generic Republican talking points. Show me one thing he's said/done that is more far-right then your average Republican candidate. And being endorsed by Trump does not mean he can't do above average with suburbanites.

I think this is less a question of Oz specifically but more the national Republican Party.

The Republican's midterm strategy is unique is overall they have no even tried to give the illusion of being moderate, but as a party have continued to run on a lot of the same talking points they had in 2020. Oz himself isn't uniquely far right for a Republican but the Republican Party is unique in it's strategy of almost purely riling up the base rather than working to actually peel off unsatisfied or disappointed Dem voters who don't like the Republican's rhetoric.

Ultimatley, yes, they aren't going to be getting Romney numbers in Chester County in 2022 pretty much no matter what, but that's not the coalition their counting on to win. They're counting on massive Trump-level rural margins and turnout differentials to hand them the state, with some gains made in Dem-leaning WWC areas and minority heavy communities largely by activating previously unactive voters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like Barlette could've had so much more potential as a GE candidate if she didn't go full crazy post-2020. Her 2020 campaign for PA-04 was reasonable considering she was a sacrificial lamb anyways, but just listening to her debate she seems to be banking on the fact enough full MAGAs will come to the polls in November and outvote everyone else (Which is a real possiblity, but generally you want to expad your coalition in a swing state).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm confused as to those who say Barnette would be a particularly strong candidate for Rs. She def would've been before she went all in crazy nutjob in the primary. She may still be favored just by the nature of the year and turnout differences, but she is very isolating to any who isn't in the Trump cult and it'd be hard for her to go back and moderate at this point, she's already done a lot of damage.

Like in the R debate she was def the most "derailed" of the bunch, not being shy about her idea that the 2020 election including her own (which she lost by 20) were stolen and basically says everything a Trump loyalist wants to hear, and repeatedly attacked the others for not being 100% in on absolutely crazy stuff.

Ig she's black and such, but just by being black doesn't really much for expanding the GOP's coalition unless she seriously makes an effort to reach out to the black community. Same way that John James really didn't do much differently than Trump in heavily black Detroit, no even slightly better.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lowkey I hope Barnett’s wins. Then in the ge they either win the seat or have a real Lightning rod in the Senate

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s not hard to see why Republican voters in Pennsylvania are connecting with Barnette. There is something about this ad which strikes a nerve, particularly among the evangelical crowd. Compare that to the Dr. Oz ad which is very obvious pandering that the 2A crowd won’t buy as easily. People can see through Oz and it’s clear conservatives are looking for a more authentic candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Barnette won, even with Trumps anti-endorsement and that of other Republican Party leaders. 

The sad thing about her is that she has a nice story and a nice family. She looks like the future of America. I can see her winning. Sad thing is that the Black community won't embrace her. You think Joy Reid or a Sheryl Lee Ralph or a Tiffany Cross or a Roland Martin will embrace her? She ain't Black, she's a Uncle Tom/Aunt Tomisana, Aunt Jemima, etc.

LMAO because this ad is propaganda. Barnette can talk all about her "story" but that doesn't erase the disgusting things she's said in the last 6 years, along with the extremist things she supports.

Even though I disagree what she stands for in it, this ad is actually pretty nice and reasonable and she comes off as very tame and respectable. It's more her debate speeches, interviews on Fox, and 30 second ads that are the propaganda.

If you had shown just this ad to me and nothing else, I'd be like okay I disagree with her on abortion, but she seems like a very respectable person who has the chance to have good appeal. Unfortunately, I doubt she's gonna be airing this 4 minute ad on TVs around PA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's also important to think about what kinda of voters make up the GOP primary in PA. The educated suburbs provide a lot less primary votes than a lot of other suburbs just because they're more D.

Tilt Oz because in races where it matters the GOP has seemed to narrowly avoided electing the "crazy" canidate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta say so far the PA Senate race has been an absolute disaster for the GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the biggest nothing burger ever unless he actually is in a state where he's close to his deathbed.

Someone just look at a list of US Senators on wiki. How many you think have health problems?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like Fetterman would probably roast/destroy Oz in a debate pretty well, but again, how much that actually translates to votes is yet to be seen.

Also canidates twitters is usually only for the election nerds like us.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lmao, Fetterman's campaign is really good in trolling Oz. We'll see whether it works in the fall.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1539638332787163136

These twitter roasts are more about getting media and possibly trying to engage younger folks than any real effort to convince folks of who they should vote for or even dissing Oz.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

He very well may win, infact I think he’s favoured; but I guarantee him and Mastriano will have relatively embarrassing performances given what’s happening nationally. On the House level, most Biden + 0-3 seat seems like a sure fire GOP flip/hold

[ProgressiveModerate]

Everyone plz rmbr, this isn't Fetterman making these tweets but his campaign staff. We don't really know how connected he is to the tweeter or how involved he is in the ideas for these "roasts".

[ProgressiveModerate]

Well, he might be right.  It's entirely possible that the types of businesses visited by megamillionaires would be hurt by Fetterman's policies. 

In the video, he appears to be in a pretty large warehouse/factory facility. Def not a small buisness.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I agree with what some posters above are saying. Many of these memes will never get much further than ET, and I wish there was more discussion about what Fettermans greater campaign messaging and strategy could actually mean for a realistic path to victory. What kinds of voters may this either activate or persuade to his side? Could it help Oz with some small groups in any way?

Ultimately a Fetterman win will probably have to defy partisanship of the year a bit, so how this is achieve able should be talked about

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anybody who has moobs should not be filming ads of them running to try and appeal to people. At least he wasn’t shirtless though.

Anyways I think his campaign is focusing too much on the stroke as a line of attack since that has nothing to do with how he’ll be as a senator. Hell we’ve seen races where dead candidates win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fettermans reply. 
https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1549785219598794754

I literally just saw this on twitter and logged on here to talk about it. I genuinely LOL'd for like a minute.

Fetterman's twitter man/woman is going to earn themselves a big bonus by the time this campaign is over. So well done.

Also, why is Oz continuously linking Fetterman to Sanders? Sanders is popular. Why isn't he linking him to Biden, who is unpopular? Oz's campaign is so inept it's ridiculous.

Also there is plenty of video of Oz vibing with Sanders which just seems like it can be used against him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly I think this feels like seat 49 rather than 51 for Dems in November.

He’s been able to distinguish himself well while not really pissing off any faction of voters he needs.

Meanwhile someone like CCM is running a very establishment campaign in an anti-establishment state, or Kelly’s who’s 2020 momentum has died down a bit.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right, but the point is that Oz/GOP has been trying to "John Fetterman is a Bernie Sanders radical socialist" and it is not, and has not been, working this entire time.

It seems like while the attack CAN be effective, it generally needs to be done against Dems that aren't very well defined. Fetterman is already a pretty defined figure in PA and has his own character and stuff so attacks like this tend to be less effective. A better strategy could be to attack his current character somehow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was looking at the ads Dr. Oz was coming up with. Things like this were at or near the top of the results.
Most comments are hostile, many reference New Jersey, and some make notice of how he's handled the gun.

Notice too how they cut the clip of him shooting to look like he actually made it lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was looking at the ads Dr. Oz was coming up with. Things like this were at or near the top of the results.
Most comments are hostile, many reference New Jersey, and some make notice of how he's handled the gun.

Notice too how they cut the clip of him shooting to look like he actually made it lol.

I didn't notice that the first time. Now that you point that out...yeah...
On a sidenote...notice how the ad is very...uh, rural in how its set. No houses even, just grass and fields.
Considering who votes Republican these days...

And the truck in the background. Republicans like big manly vehicles.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also worth noting that’s a ton of undecideds, but Fetterman is already relatively close to 50%. I suspect the average will narrow as undecides mostly break Oz as partisanship works itself out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I like that Cartoon of Oz

Honestly Oz’s face is quite cartoonable and in a way not favorable to him.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weird side note, but is it just me or has Fetterman been losing quite a bit of weight? That’s a good thing for him prolly though he’s always gonna be a bigger dude