PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Aurelius]

I think Democrats have this vision every few years of a bunch of 35 year old single moms dropping their kids off at school and then electing Democrats all over the country because of abortion.

The fact is, most of those women are too busy to vote, and if they do, half of them vote like their Trump loving husbands, or their cop fathers, or their Trump-loving moms.

This is a bad take.  Women turn out at slightly higher rates than men, and most don't just vote based on how the men in their lives think. The real issue that a lot of people miss is that women aren't monolithically pro-choice. In general, if you believe issue polling, women are a bit more pro-choice in aggregate than men, although not overwhelmingly so, and women on both sides of the issue tend to feel much more strongly about it than men.

[henster]

I'm not going to be ableist, but trying to campaign in a highly competitive race while recovering from a stroke is never going to be easy its probably impossible. You can say this without attacking him for struggling for his words. Fetterman should've done the responsible thing and stepped aside given the stakes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A voice of reason:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1585082768081707008

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oz' answer kind of betrays that he is pro-choice in his heart but he needs to run as a quasi-abortion restrictionist, so he squares the circle with a moderate stance that he hopes won't offend a huge segment of voters.

[Mr. Illini]

Breakdown from the Voice of Reason

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1585077889136939008?s=20&t=a9YJyi65F...

[MT Treasurer]

The biggest gaff of the night was not Fetterman struggling to find the words it was Oz's "abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local politicians" statement.

I’ll never not admire your side's perpetual optimism, but I’d strongly suggest seasoning it with a healthy dose of realism.

[fluffypanther19]

The biggest gaff of the night was not Fetterman struggling to find the words it was Oz's "abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local politicians" statement.

I’ll never not admire your side's perpetual optimism, but I’d strongly suggest seasoning it with a healthy dose of realism.

fetterman was awful but that is a golden soundbite right there

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

However this plays out, speaking as someone who was a pretty vocal Lamb supporter in the primary, if you gave me the choice between letting the chips fall where they may with Fetterman or a guaranteed Lamb victory, at this point I’d choose the former even with the risk of Oz winning.  Fetterman is going to be a phenomenal Senator if/when he wins and needless bed-wedding and gleefully sociopathic ableism aside, he’s probably still going to win.  Both candidates did pretty badly for very different reasons and while I doubt either candidate won over any swing voters, it’ll likely be a wash when all is said and done.

[Zenobiyl]

Rough Night for Fetterman

[Person Man]

The biggest gaff of the night was not Fetterman struggling to find the words it was Oz's "abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local politicians" statement.

I’ll never not admire your side's perpetual optimism, but I’d strongly suggest seasoning it with a healthy dose of realism.

This makes this campaign about abortion again 13 days before the election? That’s pretty much hook, line, and sinker.

[KaiserDave]

However this plays out, speaking as someone who was a pretty vocal Lamb supporter in the primary, if you gave me the choice between letting the chips fall where they may with Fetterman or a guaranteed Lamb victory, at this point I’d choose the former even with the risk of Oz winning.  Fetterman is going to be a phenomenal Senator if/when he wins and needless bed-wedding and gleefully sociopathic ableism aside, he’s probably still going to win.  Both candidates did pretty badly for very different reasons and while I doubt either candidate won over any swing voters, it’ll likely be a wash when all is said and done.

I know I had arguments on Fetterman with you around mid 2021 where you'd probably take my side now, but now you're more optimistic than me! That's neat. Gosh I hope you're right.

[choclatechip45]

Fetterman sounded fine to me. My sister has had major speech issues her whole life.

[Dani Rose]

I predict this does nothing to help Oz. People don't pay attention to Senate debates anyway, but genuinely, this told the average voter nothing new. Fetterman is still disabled, an Oz still has a fathomless void where a soul should be.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Overall the debate was a wash. Oz blew this by coming off as desperate to land a hit on Fetterman and reinforcing his negative image. Big Loeffler vibes here from him.

People will come away with it with what they believed before.

[jamestroll]

Ill be civil:

Anyone care to explain to me in a civil way why they object to speech impediments? Oz supporters only.

My speech impediment is so mild that most do not even know I have one, unless I speak spanish..

[Calthrina950]

Oz' answer kind of betrays that he is pro-choice in his heart but he needs to run as a quasi-abortion restrictionist, so he squares the circle with a moderate stance that he hopes won't offend a huge segment of voters.

This is my belief as well, and this is why I believe Oz will be a Generic, Establishment R if he wins. The man was pro-choice for most of his career, and only pivoted rightwards when he ran for political office. He's not going to be an extremist on this issue, and apparently indicated that he wouldn't support a national abortion ban. He was basically stating the primary argument that Dobbs made - to leave the decision to every state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/PeetzNVidya/status/1585087224282255360

[Person Man]

Oz' answer kind of betrays that he is pro-choice in his heart but he needs to run as a quasi-abortion restrictionist, so he squares the circle with a moderate stance that he hopes won't offend a huge segment of voters.

This is my belief as well, and this is why I believe Oz will be a Generic, Establishment R if he wins. The man was pro-choice for most of his career, and only pivoted rightwards when he ran for political office. He's not going to be an extremist on this issue, and apparently indicated that he wouldn't support a national abortion ban. He was basically stating the primary argument that Dobbs made - to leave the decision to every state.

That was incredibly inarticulate.

[Ferguson97]

I think Democrats have this vision every few years of a bunch of 35 year old single moms dropping their kids off at school and then electing Democrats all over the country because of abortion.

The fact is, most of those women are too busy to vote, and if they do, half of them vote like their Trump loving husbands, or their cop fathers, or their Trump-loving moms.

How's the weather in 1950? I assume that's where you're from, since you unironically seem to believe that most women are too stupid to think for themselves and just wait for a men to tell them how to vote.

It's a wonder why there aren't more women on Atlas...

[SnowLabrador]

Whoever convinced Fetterman to debate should never be hired for anything again. Fetterman was leading, and he still might have a chance, but he unnecessarily gave Oz an opening by agreeing to debate. I don't know how many Pennsylvania voters watched the debate, but you can bet that the GOP is going to make sure as many voters as possible know just how badly Fetterman did.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Both these can be true:

1) Fetterman's performance was utterly atrocious

2) American voters are dumb, so soundbites matter more then content. Oz had more dumb soundbites.

[Person Man]

I think Democrats have this vision every few years of a bunch of 35 year old single moms dropping their kids off at school and then electing Democrats all over the country because of abortion.

The fact is, most of those women are too busy to vote, and if they do, half of them vote like their Trump loving husbands, or their cop fathers, or their Trump-loving moms.

How's the weather in 1950? I assume that's where you're from, since you unironically seem to believe that most women are too stupid to think for themselves and just wait for a men to tell them how to vote.

Not sure if this guy has a partner or has ever gotten laid with that attitude.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Democrats have this vision every few years of a bunch of 35 year old single moms dropping their kids off at school and then electing Democrats all over the country because of abortion.

The fact is, most of those women are too busy to vote, and if they do, half of them vote like their Trump loving husbands, or their cop fathers, or their Trump-loving moms.

I don't see what it has to do with single moms.  The main thing limiting abortion as a wedge issue is that about 1/2 of women are more pro-life than the Roe/Casey standard and about 1/4th believe it should be outlawed almost entirely.  It's also arguably irrelevant in federal elections now (note the Dem candidate for governor is doing significantly better).

We’ve already seen all of this proven false in every special election post Dobbs.  You absolutely cannot look at the KS referendum results and tell me that half of women oppose Roe.  And you absolutely cannot look at NY-19 and tell me that abortion doesn’t matter in federal elections post-Dobbs.

Abortion is a disaster for Republicans right now, and everything that any candidate says about will help Democrats.

[choclatechip45]

Whoever convinced Fetterman to debate should never be hired for anything again. Fetterman was leading, and he still might have a chance, but he unnecessarily gave Oz an opening by agreeing to debate. I don't know how many Pennsylvania voters watched the debate, but you can bet that the GOP is going to make sure as many voters as possible know just how badly Fetterman did.

If you are around people who have speech issues enough they sound normal. Fetterman sounded normal to me. My sister has major speech issues can't count how many times I'm around her I have to repeat something she said because someone can't understand her.

[Sestak]

Oz' answer kind of betrays that he is pro-choice in his heart but he needs to run as a quasi-abortion restrictionist, so he squares the circle with a moderate stance that he hopes won't offend a huge segment of voters.

This is my belief as well, and this is why I believe Oz will be a Generic, Establishment R if he wins. The man was pro-choice for most of his career, and only pivoted rightwards when he ran for political office. He's not going to be an extremist on this issue, and apparently indicated that he wouldn't support a national abortion ban. He was basically stating the primary argument that Dobbs made - to leave the decision to every state.

Except that in this case the comment is much dumber. Firstly, of course, Dobbs was a court decision to allow the legislature free rein on the issue. Oz is running for a legislative position; people will want him to match their values.

Pro-choice people obviously won’t like his answer - but neither will genuinely pro-life voters? Oz’s implicit admission here is that he does not believe a fetus is a person or that they should be given any stake over the decision to - from a pro-life perspective- end their life. So pretty much everyone is going to be turned off by the approach he took in some way. Even those who genuinely believe in ‘let the states decide’ generally take this view out of some idea of democracy; that the people in each state or locality should decide. And if Oz had said something along those lines, fine. But most people don’t even know who their “local politicians” are; so from that point of view Oz has just left the decision up to some faceless bureaucrats. Not exactly reassuring!

I’m not as convinced it’s guaranteed to be a slam dunk ad as some in here are. But it’s objectively a pretty terrible statement.