PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

F***

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1575885073299427328

F@ck

[SnowLabrador]

I mean, it's a pretty small sample. But I'm convinced this race is a tossup now if it wasn't already. It's reminding me of NC-SEN 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

AGAIN, focus groups are interesting but pretty ancedotal

I'm nearly certian though that Shapiro runs ahead of Fetterman no matter the result. Also, that focus group is ONLY Trump-Biden voters who are a pretty small group and the general consensus here seems to be that's not really Fetterman's base. What about Romney-Clinton-Biden voters? Obama-Trump-Trump voters? Dissafected Ds and Rs who this will be their first cycle potentially voting the other way?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean, it's a pretty small sample. But I'm convinced this race is a tossup now if it wasn't already. It's reminding me of NC-SEN 2020.

Stop concern trolling, Fetterman is still in good shape

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Not a surprise - you didn't need polls to figure this out. Fetterman and the Dem superPACs need to get their sh*t together.

[HidingCommentary]

With all due respect to Sarah Longwell, there arent that many Trump-Biden voters in the first place. In case anyone forgot, Trump got more votes in Pennsylvania in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Edit: Not to dismiss them, and they may end up being an important voting block in a close race. But Trump got 400k more vote in PA in 2020 than he did in 2016, I'm skeptical that there are that many of them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

With all due respect to Sarah Longwell, there arent that many Trump-Biden voters in the first place. In case anyone forgot, Trump got more votes in Pennsylvania in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Edit: Not to dismiss them, and they may end up being an important voting block in a close race. But Trump got 400k more vote in PA in 2020 than he did in 2016, I'm skeptical that there are that many of them.

OMG yes this is what I dislike about Sarah Longwell. She has done great research on Trump-Biden and even Romney-Clinton-Biden voters but oftentimes acts like these are the ONLY swing voter block which is a bit disingenuous. They are kinda the most obvious “swing voters” since they delivered Biden the whitehouse, the same way there was an obsession with Obama-Trump voters after Trump won that allowed him to sweep the rust belt

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Once again I think there is a non-negligible chance Fetterman gets carried over the finish line by Shapiro. The Governor's race has a greater chance of Shapiro winning by double digits than Mastriano winning, and one has to think that if there are enough swing voters who will also pull the lever for Fetterman as well. This is a documented phenomenon. Evers probably would have lost without Baldwin, for instance.

[Person Man]

Once again I think there is a non-negligible chance Fetterman gets carried over the finish line by Shapiro. The Governor's race has a greater chance of Shapiro winning by double digits than Mastriano winning, and one has to think that if there are enough swing voters who will also pull the lever for Fetterman as well. This is a documented phenomenon. Evers probably would have lost without Baldwin, for instance.

My guess is that McGinnity would have made it it were in 2018, not 2016 and Hump gave Toomey what he needed (even if he ran about 1 point ahead of Hump).

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Suddenly all of the poll movement makes sense

https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1575836312455634944

[HidingCommentary]

Suddenly all of the poll movement makes sense

Hard to argue anybody watching Fox News at any hour of the day was a serious swing vote. Could have helped firm up some of that soft support Oz has gotten in recent weeks though.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Suddenly all of the poll movement makes sense

Hard to argue anybody watching Fox News at any hour of the day was a serious swing vote. Could have helped firm up some of that soft support Oz has gotten in recent weeks though.

The GOP base in PA is like 45%. Oz going from like 40% to 45% was expected, while Fetterman hasn't really gone down much.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh. My. God.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1575905270311653381?cxt=HHwWisC8yc3f3t4...

Jesus H Christ that's a good ad.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Oh. My. God.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1575905270311653381?cxt=HHwWisC8yc3f3t4...

Jesus H Christ that's a good ad.

I just love how someone on the AV team is assigned to either finding images of a candidate at an unflattering angle or freeze-framing videos of a candidate where they're making a funny face. 

[wbrocks67]

That Oz ad is good; doubling down on him being a total phony and fraud is a good angle.

Now that Shapiro is in better standing, it seems there's also a coordinated effort from Fett's team this week to link Mastriano and Oz together now that Mastriano is sinking into oblivion. The more Oz is associated with Mastriano, the better.

[wbrocks67]

Something that is also underdiscussed is the collapse of Mastriano. Usually these statewide GOP campaigns coordinate with each other and get help, but with Mastriano running a non-existent campaign, that makes it even more harder for Oz's team to pick up the slack with voter outreach, resources, etc.

[jamestroll]

Looks like there will be a thread that exceeds my VA governor thread in pages.

Though I am more confident in Fetterman than I was with McAufflie.

[wbrocks67]

Given Mastriano's total collapse, it makes sense now that all Ds are essentially tying their opponents to him to get him to drag the other GOP candidates down with him.

Fetterman also introduced "Mozstriano" to join Oz/Mastriano together.  Smartest thing Ds can do is tie every GOP candidate to him.

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1576257676337893377

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1576293189157236736

[wbrocks67]

This is a rather good strategy too. It's obviously not hard to say that "GOP candidate and Mastriano" are an extremist combination. I saw the Oz and Mastriano signs together on the highway today, and then I see this from Deluzio. They *all* are running together, according to the GOP. So a vote for whichever GOP candidate is a vote for basically everything Mastriano represents, at least in the GOP

https://twitter.com/ChrisForPA/status/1575273736202342400

[Person Man]

Oh. My. God.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1575905270311653381?cxt=HHwWisC8yc3f3t4...

Jesus H Christ that's a good ad.

I just love how someone on the AV team is assigned to either finding images of a candidate at an unflattering angle or freeze-framing videos of a candidate where they're making a funny face. 

RBF is not your friend.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This is a rather good strategy too. It's obviously not hard to say that "GOP candidate and Mastriano" are an extremist combination. I saw the Oz and Mastriano signs together on the highway today, and then I see this from Deluzio. They *all* are running together, according to the GOP. So a vote for whichever GOP candidate is a vote for basically everything Mastriano represents, at least in the GOP

https://twitter.com/ChrisForPA/status/1575273736202342400

This strategy honestly seems a little risky to me. Youngkin and Kemp are two examples of people that the left has recently turned into rockstars with the Republican base. In both cases, they could have otherwise had trouble appealing to at least part of the base, and in both cases the left inadvertently handed them conservative bona fides by repeatedly comparing them to Trump or something similar. The problem is that swing voters are not motivated by comparisons that are clearly not true (such as saying Youngkin is more dangerous than Trump), but it does potentially endear lukewarm partisans.

If it sounds like I’m suggesting a double standard because the right loves to do the same thing, that’s kind of the point. The left bases its loyalty on specific issues (you can even see it on this forum). Nobody is going to get up off the couch and go vote for Kyrsten Sinema (or fill in a moderate Dem) just because the right accuses her of being a Bernie Sanders fan. Republicans, on the other hand, are more generally concerned with politicians “standing up for my values” regardless of personal voting record or ideology (see Donald Trump). It’s very easy to see a small number of voters saying “I don’t trust Oz very much and he seems like a phony to me, but if he’s triggering the libs this much then he must be doing something right!”

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Given Mastriano's total collapse, it makes sense now that all Ds are essentially tying their opponents to him to get him to drag the other GOP candidates down with him.

Fetterman also introduced "Mozstriano" to join Oz/Mastriano together.  Smartest thing Ds can do is tie every GOP candidate to him.

POV you’re a candidate for the city council in Olympia desperately trying to convince voters your opponent is connected to Mastriano

[wbrocks67]

This is a rather good strategy too. It's obviously not hard to say that "GOP candidate and Mastriano" are an extremist combination. I saw the Oz and Mastriano signs together on the highway today, and then I see this from Deluzio. They *all* are running together, according to the GOP. So a vote for whichever GOP candidate is a vote for basically everything Mastriano represents, at least in the GOP

https://twitter.com/ChrisForPA/status/1575273736202342400

This strategy honestly seems a little risky to me. Youngkin and Kemp are two examples of people that the left has recently turned into rockstars with the Republican base. In both cases, they could have otherwise had trouble appealing to at least part of the base, and in both cases the left inadvertently handed them conservative bona fides by repeatedly comparing them to Trump or something similar. The problem is that swing voters are not motivated by comparisons that are clearly not true (such as saying Youngkin is more dangerous than Trump), but it does potentially endear lukewarm partisans.

If it sounds like I’m suggesting a double standard because the right loves to do the same thing, that’s kind of the point. The left bases its loyalty on specific issues (you can even see it on this forum). Nobody is going to get up off the couch and go vote for Kyrsten Sinema (or fill in a moderate Dem) just because the right accuses her of being a Bernie Sanders fan. Republicans, on the other hand, are more generally concerned with politicians “standing up for my values” regardless of personal voting record or ideology (see Donald Trump). It’s very easy to see a small number of voters saying “I don’t trust Oz very much and he seems like a phony to me, but if he’s triggering the libs this much then he must be doing something right!”

I see what you're saying, but I don't think it's necessarily the same thing. This is also just aimed purely at those Shapiro/undecided voters who may be unsure in Senate. They likely don't have any love lost for Oz and probably lean Dem on many issues so it's just about showing them that if they were thinking about splitting their ticket, Oz is close to Mastriano. Which, Oz is already disliked, unlike Youngkin, and has similar views as well ("abortion is murder") so it's not as much of a stretch imo. Also, comparing Oz to the other person *on the same ticket* isn't necessarily the same as comparing them to Trump/outside GOP candidates.