PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I do like Fetterman's simple "legalize it" ad.  

He's also apparently employing a 67-county strategy, though I'm skeptical of this tactic if he's actually trying to spread his campaign out across all counties in the state.  Does this strategy work? I feel like I've only heard about it in the context of failure. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

As far as pandering campaign ads go, this *might* be one of more blatantly obvious instances I've seen.  

You can almost hear his campaign advisors:  

"Okay, so: we're still having trouble connecting with the 2nd amendment crowd.  Ideas?"

"How about we give him a shotgun and have him talk about how he loves guns?"

"Perfect.  I love it.  Let's have him talk about his dad and his son, too.  Throw the family angle in there." 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Laughing at the Owens tweet saying that Philly voters think Lamb is "better in Congress." Nice reminder for this forum that the average voter has no idea what's going on.

Was having dinner with a friend and his parents (former-Reagan-Republicans-turned-Obama-Democrats), both Ivy League educated engineers.  

When a campaign ad appeared on TV for Josh Shapiro, this friend's mother turned to me and asked, "there's elections this year, right? What party is this guy?"

Ahhhh the American electorate.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Laughing at the Owens tweet saying that Philly voters think Lamb is "better in Congress." Nice reminder for this forum that the average voter has no idea what's going on.

Was having dinner with a friend and his parents (former-Reagan-Republicans-turned-Obama-Democrats), both Ivy League educated engineers.  

When a campaign ad appeared on TV for Josh Shapiro, this friend's mother turned to me and asked, "there's elections this year, right? What party is this guy?"

Ahhhh the American electorate.  

are they from pennsylvania? you'd think if they were from/in PA, they'd at least knew *who* Shapiro was at this point, but alas...

Both have lived in PA for about...I wanna say thirty years or so.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

> Mitch McConnell is fixated on ensuring that the 2022 cycle is not a repeat of 2010 or 2012...

I understand the references to 2010 (DE, CO, etc. etc.).  But to what Senate races from 2012 is this referring?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't know about you guys, but this might be the most excited I've been for a non-prezi primary in quite some time.  

I have a pretty clear candidate picked out for when I vote tomorrow, but I genuinely have no idea who's going to be the GOP's nominee when all is said and done.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wonder if this guy changed his vote because of the stroke? /s

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1526614514468257794?s=20&t=OPKVadFB...

Maybe PQG could drop by and say hello to him.

Would be nice, but John is at Lancaster General (which is not too far from where I live) and I believe PQG is out in Philly at Penn

And if you think I'm driving all the way out to Lancaster with gas at $4.85 a pop

--

Just got back from voting.  Was in and out within around 10 minutes. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1526639434476752897?s=20&t=LV0fXJb_SK...

Ah, okay.  So if Fetterman has Afib, the clot may have resulted from blood pooling in his heart (since the atrium wasn't able to eject blood at a normal rate.  We sometimes compare to a "bag of worms": the atrium doesn't actually squeeze as it's supposed to.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Good news!

https://twitter.com/giselefetterman/status/1526691536607629312?s=21&t=RmcUjb...

Good news!

Yeah, putting in a pacemaker isn't nearly as invasive as it used to be.  Small incision in the chest, wire threaded through subclavian or cephalic vein, pacemaker installed sub-q.

Usually takes no more than an hour or two; it's not even always necessary to put the patient to sleep.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1527246409996681217?s=20&t=DNZvK1Baf...

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1527175097685098497?s=20&t=DNZvK1BafB...

Some various thoughts on the GOP side, since I couldn't find again the tweet chain I previously referenced. Basically, McCormick is winning the majority of the remaining ballots by comparatively more than he needs to in order to catch up, given that they are mainly early votes from the center or east of the state. However, there may not be enough votes out there, because of confusion over the totals. The final big question mark is the chain of custody failure in Allegheny, a place where McCormick  is winning all types of ballots and is his 'stronghold,' but the e-day side of things is much closer than he needs.

Essentially, this should be going to a very small margin no matter the victor, which means likely legal action.

I figure this is one of those scenarios like we saw in GA-2020 for President:  the final tally will be close, but you'd much rather be ahead in a footrace (even if it's by a tiny margin).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The PA DoS confirmed Oz as the winner of the GOP primary yesterday, btw. He won by 951 votes. Accolades and so forth:

Oz by less than 1000 votes

Bless you, Doctor

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1536090139172257793

You really are out here defending every single thing that every GOP member does. Must be exhausting.

No more than you defend every single thing the Democrats do.

Splendid! Sounds like you folks have reached an agreement.  Is it time for lunch yet?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The real challenge for Oz is going to be towing the fine line between distancing from Trump and embracing him as well as moderating on social issues and going to the right on economic and cultural ones.

Fetterman, on the other hand, has a unified Democratic party. I don't see him doing that well in the Philly suburbs.

Agreed. So basically Oz has to adopt a Youngkin strategy?

As for Fetterman, this is definitely an accomplishment given the fact that he's a member of the progressive wing. He has certainly managed to gain support from the moderate and establishment wing, which is not always the norm. I think it would be very beneficiary for progressives to be more like Fetterman and less like the Squad.

Some of it is definitely how Fetterman looks.  It'd be interesting to show a side-by-side to a person who had no idea who either candidate was and ask them "which one is the Republican and which one is the Democrat"?



Hell, *I* look more like a progressive than he does

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The crazy thing is, Oz could be up on the airwaves and doing stuff to blunt all of this. But he's basically MIA, with no ads up on TV and hanging out with people and filming campaign social videos in NJ.

I *am* starting to see a single Oz pre-roll Youtube ad.  It's pretty standard: Oz will cut your taxes, Oz will help bring down prices, Oz will protect small businesses, etc. etc. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Apparently Oz doesn't air any ads at this moment?

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547009168497950722

I've seen two ads from Oz and both were pretty boilerplate.  

They both lean into PA needing an outsider (political outsider, mind you) to lower taxes, lower prices, etc.  Neither mentions anything about Roe v. Wade or directly addresses Fetterman. .  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL. Fetterman for Twitter Troll in Chief.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547683652791717891

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Holy crap what an awful ad!
https://twitter.com/droz/status/1547682878565150720?s=21

Could be a bit of bias due to knowing who Oz was before he entered the political arena, but these ads come off as notably transparent.  

As I said in a previous post when Oz's campaign team put out an "interesting" pro-2A ad, you can almost hear and see his handlers rushing to get him ready right before the cameras start rolling -- plopping a hard-hat on his head and being like "okay, now shake hands with the workers, carry a clipboard, act like you're pulling factory levers..."  Now add a voiceover about how "Dr. Oz will fight for the working class" and we're golden.  

This is, of course, nothing new in the campaign ad game -- for either party.  There's LOTS of pandering and lots of blowing smoke.  

But there's some quality about these Mehmet Oz ads that just comes off as almost insulting.  I personally haven't decided on my vote in November, but they're not doing much for me personally.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This is the kind of guy who you feel a sudden urge to punch in the face every time you see/hear him talk. As someone who generally thinks "candidate quality" is a nebulous and arbitrary concept, I really do think he’s a uniquely poor candidate, even more so than, say, Walker or Masters, both of whom at least come across as people with sincere convictions. Every time Oz opens his mouth or steps in front of a camera, (a) he comes off as ridiculously fake/insincere and the embodiment of the slick snake oil salesman, (b) you can tell he’s struggling so much to relate/pander to the people he needs (just reinforces the notion that he is incredibly out of touch), (c) he struggles to deliver even the most basic talking points fed to him, and (d) he barely manages to articulate a coherent message or stay on topic. Between this and his abysmal favorability ratings as well as trends lagging a bit behind in down-ballot races, PA voting to the left of GA this year (one last time) wouldn’t really surprise me.

I also think Mastriano outperforming Oz isn’t out of the question at all. Absolutely humiliating.

Well put, MT.  

Say what you will about Fetterman, but he *looks* the part.  In his primary ad where he was driving a pickup through a lonely rural PA town at daybreak (I think it was daybreak), you didn't have to agree with his politics or what he was saying.  Hell, you can think that Fetterman is Stalin reincarnated and that he wants the rename PA to the "Socialist Republic of Pennsylvania".  

But he LOOKS the part, the sort of guy who looks at home driving a pickup thru rural PA.  And appearances can make all the difference.  

When you look at Oz standing there in a plaid button-up, shotgun in hand, shooting clay pigeons and talking about how he has always supported the 2A, he's always lived by conservative values, etc. etc., it just doesn't play (at least in my opinion).  

Oz may still win here.  Things are that bleak nationwide for the Democrats, so nobody should be writing him off.  But it's just...baffling to me that the GOP looked at Oz and said "yup, he's our guy". 

Also, the few pro-Oz ads really put an emphasis on him being an "outsider".  That "outsider" label may not be the best thing to run on when your connections to PA are questionable...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister.  

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect.  

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway.  

In any case: you're not an idiot, Politician.  I refuse to believe that you consider Oz a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister. 

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect. 

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway. 

In any case, you're not an idiot, Politician.  Oz is not a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer. 

The problem I have with this thread is how it's been beaten into the ground. We get it, Oz is a bad candidate, now can we move on and not just circlejerk about when Fetterman owns him on Twitter?

Well what else is there?

Politician, we can't have equal representation when one side is disproportionately campaigning. 

It would be different if Oz was fighting fire with fire (or doing anything at all).  If he was, for instance, using social media to reciprocate or airing quality ads that boost his campaign, I would be all for balance.  And add to that the fact that we've seen very few polls for this race. 

As I said, I'm not the biggest fan of Team Fetterman's dunk-style of campaigning -- I think it's a little juvenile and it's a big risk/reward in terms of comeuppance.  But it's SOMETHING. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

http://

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

Why are you booing her, she's right!

I refuse to recommend this post on principle, but that's one of my favorite meme-able moments from the EAS.  

Anyway, Jersey is gross

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I now do wish McCormick won the primary and he may have without polls showing Barnette in 2nd lol.

McCormick wouldn't have been any better, in fact he may have been worse. TV personality is slightly more appealing than a hedge fund manager lol.

The issue is Oz doesn’t seem to be actively campaigning

Sure he is! Just look how great he's doing:
https://twitter.com/PatsSteaks/status/1548064449797312515

I was drinking a glass of milk and almost choked.  

For the cheesesteak unaware, Pat's and Geno's are two famous rival cheesesteak businesses right across the street from each other in South Philly.  Pat's opened first -- I believe in the thirties.  Geno's opened....I wanna say in the 60's.  They've been warring ever since.  

Geno's late owner got himself into hot water about seventeen years ago for featuring a sticker at the ordering window that read "THIS IS AMERICA.  WHEN ORDERING, SPEAK ENGLISH", which led to a big debate about whether it was xenophobic or not.  Joe Vento (the owner) claimed it was simply for the customer's benefit -- that if they don't speak English, they may not get what they want.

(But anyway, both places are overrated according to my Philly peeps.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hey, have we seen any recent polls from this race?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Meanwhile, "He's in Pennsylvania" is trending in PA because Oz is being dunked on again by putting out this "LOST" tweet. Not only are people ratio'ing him saying that Fetterman is in PA (whereas Oz is not), but Oz continues to make Fetterman look even cooler with his graphics, so Fetterman stole it and put it as his own header on Twitter-

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1550294388319948800

.

Okay, that's ...that's pretty good on two fronts.  Whoever did the graphical work for Oz deserves a pat on the back and Team Fetterman is pretty brilliant for making it their header.