PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Lol you guys are arguing about which guy will lose by 2% to the Republican candidate.

2% is a pretty generous estimate at this point.

Not sure why people are acting as if PA is going to be decided by like 5%. It's a red year but given the GOP's terrible bench and PA usually being close either way, it's likely going to be <2% in either direction.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This from the guy who is always calling the Democratic establishment “Blue MAGA” and claiming it would rather let Republicans win than back someone from another wing of the party

yes.jpg

That wing of the party is losing influence, but it's still there (see: Buffalo mayor). There's still a part of the party that views people like me as equal threats to the party. And in some cases, outright prefer corporatism to populism.

So yes. I feel pretty comfortable calling the party machine that looks at a candidate who is teaming up with the pharmaceutical lobby and says "Damn, I want me some of that" Blue MAGA. I don't want any sellouts, Democrat or Republican, in power.

If that makes me a purist or a zealot, I welcome it.

Truly amazing stuff folks. The Democrat establishment does a full court press to stop Fetterman, and instead of getting behind the hard-working, gay black progressive grinder, they try to coronate the whitest, most unseasoned chicken ass politician since Kasich.

This is why the Democrat Party establishment is out of touch with its voters.

This could just as easily be spun the other way:

Truly amazing stuff folks.  The Berniecrat wing does a full court press to stop Lamb, and instead of getting behind the young, hard-working, gay black progressive, they try to coronate a completely untested white guy who chased around an unarmed African-American with a shotgun and has been running one of the laziest campaigns in recent memory.

This is why the Berniecrat establishment is out of touch Democratic voters.

The difference here is that your candidate is struggling to break away from that young, hard-working gay black progressive.

“Your candidate”   I’ve been extremely consistent about the fact that I’d far prefer Kenyatta to Lamb.  However, Lamb has a better chance of saving us from the dumpster fire that is Fetterman’s candidacy.  And I would’ve far preferred Cartwright to any of the three. 

Also, Lamb has had far better fundraising, institutional support, etc than Kenyatta.  IIRC most polling has shown Lamb well ahead of Kenyatta who remains stuck in mid-to-low single digits.  You’re objectively wrong about this.

Finally, even if your deflection were true, my point would still stand.  You can stick your head in the sand if you want, but your initial post wasn’t the winning line of attack you seem to think it is and is just as easy to apply to Fetterman supporters. 

I would argue that Lamb has largely ridden his coattails from the 2018 campaign. He underperformed Biden in 2020 in a district that was tailor-made for him. Ceteris paribus, he would barely be treading water.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This thread is almost as entertaining as VA-2021

[Unelectable Bystander]

Lol you guys are arguing about which guy will lose by 2% to the Republican candidate.

2% is a pretty generous estimate at this point.

Not sure why people are acting as if PA is going to be decided by like 5%. It's a red year but given the GOP's terrible bench and PA usually being close either way, it's likely going to be <2% in either direction.

I’m curious what kind of candidate does the GOP need for Dems in this forum to not think it’s a terrible bench? There’s no way that those two are much worse than the benches in Arizona, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Georgia. Maybe they’re slightly worse than Laxalt (but people think he’s a terrible candidate too). They’re absolutely better than Perdue/Loeffler/Tillis/McSally.

Also I believe Dems won both senate and governor races by blowout in 2018. I’m not disagreeing that the  GOP candidate likely wins by a couple points but it seems very plausible that they win by 5-7 especially if the popular vote is that lopsided and there’s low black turnout

[Calthrina950]

Lol you guys are arguing about which guy will lose by 2% to the Republican candidate.

2% is a pretty generous estimate at this point.

Not sure why people are acting as if PA is going to be decided by like 5%. It's a red year but given the GOP's terrible bench and PA usually being close either way, it's likely going to be <2% in either direction.

I’m curious what kind of candidate does the GOP need for Dems in this forum to not think it’s a terrible bench? There’s no way that those two are much worse than the benches in Arizona, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Georgia. Maybe they’re slightly worse than Laxalt (but people think he’s a terrible candidate too). They’re absolutely better than Perdue/Loeffler/Tillis/McSally.

Also I believe Dems won both senate and governor races by blowout in 2018. I’m not disagreeing that the  GOP candidate likely wins by a couple points but it seems very plausible that they win by 5-7 especially if the popular vote is that lopsided and there’s low black turnout

My assumption is that the good Republican candidate which Atlas Democrats such as wbrocks67 have in mind would be an establishment or moderate Republican. Perhaps someone like John Katko, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Brian Fitzpatrick, or Adam Kinzinger, to give an example. But even such a Republican would be denounced extensively on here (like Glenn Youngkin was, even though he comes closest to fitting this "mold"), and they would be despised or at best only tolerated by the Republican base.

Given that swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin currently have, and in the past have had, elected Republicans who are much more conservative than the ones who would fit this "ideal" mold, and given that voters care less about voting records and more about how candidates present themselves, I'm not sure that their argument would hold water.

[wbrocks67]

The GOP tried the "farther right" thing in 2018 and that's why they lost so badly. The environment was already terrible for them of course, but for either party to lose by 13 and 17 in Pennsylvania of all places it means that not only the environment is bad, but the candidates are bad, and Barletta and Wagner are kind of a perfect encapsulation of how bad this years is - in that the GOV is even worse than the Senate side. But none of these candidates - or frontrunners, that is - are really exciting the base. After a ton of advertising, no one can even hit 30%, let alone 20-25% in most polls, and their fundraising is all horrific.

At least with Fetterman you can say he's a prolific fundraiser and is clearly energizing his base. No one on the GOP side - on either GOV or SEN - is exciting the base in really any way, it seems, so that's why I think their particularly worse than usual.

I don't think a moderate would be doing any better - if anything, they'd be exciting the base even less. The fact that kooks like Mastriano, Barnette, even Oz at this point, are not exciting the base, is telling.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The GOP tried the "farther right" thing in 2018 and that's why they lost so badly. The environment was already terrible for them of course, but for either party to lose by 13 and 17 in Pennsylvania of all places it means that not only the environment is bad, but the candidates are bad, and Barletta and Wagner are kind of a perfect encapsulation of how bad this years is - in that the GOV is even worse than the Senate side. But none of these candidates - or frontrunners, that is - are really exciting the base. After a ton of advertising, no one can even hit 30%, let alone 20-25% in most polls, and their fundraising is all horrific.

At least with Fetterman you can say he's a prolific fundraiser and is clearly energizing his base. No one on the GOP side - on either GOV or SEN - is exciting the base in really any way, it seems, so that's why I think their particularly worse than usual.

I don't think a moderate would be doing any better - if anything, they'd be exciting the base even less. The fact that kooks like Mastriano, Barnette, even Oz at this point, are not exciting the base, is telling.

So the GOP running a far right senate candidate in their midterm is counterproductive but Dems running a far left candidate in their midterm energizes the base? Keep in mind that polls show a plurality of the country currently thinks the democrats are too far left as a party.

I’m pretty sure this was once said about Youngkin also. He was a compromise candidate who never polled super poll in primaries and his red sweater/billionaire stigma was supposed to be a turnoff to muh them hillbillies with their lunch pails and MAGA hats. If voters are angry enough they’ll turn out for anybody that they don’t have a total lack of trust in

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

You have a choice between a sigma male and a Cigna male. Choose wisely.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

This is purely anecdotal, but I've been doing some texting for Malcolm and seeing a lot of support for him, but many people have expressed that they're behind Fetterman because they believe he can win the general. Also seeing some people saying that they're behind Fetterman because he endorsed Bernie.

[Not Me, Us]

This is purely anecdotal, but I've been doing some texting for Malcolm and seeing a lot of support for him, but many people have expressed that they're behind Fetterman because they believe he can win the general. Also seeing some people saying that they're behind Fetterman because he endorsed Bernie.

Any support for Lamb?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

This is purely anecdotal, but I've been doing some texting for Malcolm and seeing a lot of support for him, but many people have expressed that they're behind Fetterman because they believe he can win the general. Also seeing some people saying that they're behind Fetterman because he endorsed Bernie.

Any support for Lamb?

Couple of people have said they support Lamb, are between Lamb and Fetterman, or have not mentioned him specifically but said they want to vote for a candidate who will win the general.

[Chips]

Neither party should be overly confident about this race whatsoever. If I had to tilt the race to one side, it would be the Republicans due to incumbency and the national environment but I do think it is possible that Fetterman ekes this one out even as Republicans are flipping the trio of GA, NV and AZ at the same time. I'd be quite surprised if the race was decided by more than 2-3 points in either direction.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1512933528933076996

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL, I am beginning to think Trump is a Democratic Plant.

[Ferguson97]

Congratulations to Senator-elect Mehmet Oz

[Roll Roons]

Congratulations to Senator-elect Mehmet Oz

Yes, Trump's endorsement really is the only thing that matters. Tell me about how Mo Brooks and David Perdue are totally dominating their primaries.

Not saying Dr. Oz can't win the primary or general, but Trump's endorsement is far from a guarantee.

[kwabbit]

Oz is certainly a unique candidate, but I don't think he'll be a bad one.

Despite his show advertising snake oil products and him engaging in some low-brow pandering to the GOP base, Oz is a very smart guy. He didn't become such a successful surgeon by being dumb or lazy. A lot of celebrity politicians are not intelligent, and this can lead to them being caught with their pants down in interviews or debates. I expect Herschel Walker to make a few gaffes just from a lack of knowledge about government and politics, but Oz should be more prepared and thoughtful when he needs to be. I can't see him as more as that much worse than a generic R.

McCormick probably would've been better, but Fetterman vs. McCormick does recreate the working man Dem vs. rich Republican that did not serve Republicans well in most of the country, including PA. Trump is smart to give an endorsement and try to settle the primary now.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1512933528933076996

Yeah, I predicted this the day he got in the race. There's no way Trump would endorse never-Trumper McCormick over Hollywood friend Oz.

[BigSerg]

I'm glad Trump is endorsing Oz. Oz is a really smart and nice guy for middle class suburbanites.

[Minnesota Mike]

McCormick probably would've been better, but Fetterman vs. McCormick does recreate the working man Dem vs. rich Republican that did not serve Republicans well in most of the country, including PA. Trump is smart to give an endorsement and try to settle the primary now.

OZ is estimated to be worth over $100 mill.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

McCormick probably would've been better, but Fetterman vs. McCormick does recreate the working man Dem vs. rich Republican that did not serve Republicans well in most of the country, including PA. Trump is smart to give an endorsement and try to settle the primary now.

OZ is estimated to be worth over $100 mill.

But a rich TV star is better optics than a rich banker, as Trump/Romney can tell you

[kwabbit]

McCormick probably would've been better, but Fetterman vs. McCormick does recreate the working man Dem vs. rich Republican that did not serve Republicans well in most of the country, including PA. Trump is smart to give an endorsement and try to settle the primary now.

OZ is estimated to be worth over $100 mill.

Oz is rich as hell, but he's not an investment banker. Trump vs. Romney is the obvious analogy. Trump isn't snooty, he made his wealth partially through casinos and TV, something that working class people understand. Romney made his money through vulture capitalism, something that no working person understands, and he carries an aristocratic air. You can be wealthy and appeal to the middle class, you just have to make your money a certain way.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Malcolm confronted Lt. Governor Fetterman directly over the shotgun incident:

[wbrocks67]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

I disagree. I think he can appeal to suburbanite women who remember him as the TV guy who Oprah likes.
And it's not like Oz is running a far-right campaign, so fair his campaign seems focused on healthcare and energy.