PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Morning in Atlas]

I am currently backing Conor Lamb, but I've watched Kenyatta effectively articulate himself and make his case. I could honestly see Lamb come in third. I agree that he really needs to switch this up and differentiate himself in the field. He's giving off too many "generic Dem" vibes and not enough energy brought to the table. I like his calm demeanor and blue-collar sentiment.

However, I could end up voting for Kenyatta if this keeps up. Fetterman, on the other hand, is unapologetic and comes off as callous. He's a terrible debater and can't throw together coherent points. Even still, he's the front-runner and doubt he wins the general. The man is too far left.

Then why is he winning easily? He can't be that bad of a candidate if he is crushing the field.

Purely name recognition and more funds. Nothing more.

Seethe and cope

This is the truth, though. Whether people want to admit it or not, I live in PA, and no one that I know is paying attention to these primaries, on either side tbh. We're less than a month out and it does not feel like there is an election coming out. So I do believe that a lot of Fettermans lead is coming from name rec objectively. I really don't think anything has to do with who is running a good or bad campaign at this point.

Same reason Kenyatta is so low. No one outside of Philly (and even many in the city) don't know who he is.

At the same time, did anyone really know who Mike Stack or Jim Cawley were when they were LG? You or the other PA posters here probably know more but from what I remember from my time in PA I heard almost nothing about them outside of this forum. 

If Fetterman has that high of name recog as lieutenant governor, it would indicate from me that he must be doing something right.

[Not Me, Us]

I am currently backing Conor Lamb, but I've watched Kenyatta effectively articulate himself and make his case. I could honestly see Lamb come in third. I agree that he really needs to switch this up and differentiate himself in the field. He's giving off too many "generic Dem" vibes and not enough energy brought to the table. I like his calm demeanor and blue-collar sentiment.

However, I could end up voting for Kenyatta if this keeps up. Fetterman, on the other hand, is unapologetic and comes off as callous. He's a terrible debater and can't throw together coherent points. Even still, he's the front-runner and doubt he wins the general. The man is too far left.

Then why is he winning easily? He can't be that bad of a candidate if he is crushing the field.

Purely name recognition and more funds. Nothing more.

Seethe and cope

This is the truth, though. Whether people want to admit it or not, I live in PA, and no one that I know is paying attention to these primaries, on either side tbh. We're less than a month out and it does not feel like there is an election coming out. So I do believe that a lot of Fettermans lead is coming from name rec objectively. I really don't think anything has to do with who is running a good or bad campaign at this point.

Same reason Kenyatta is so low. No one outside of Philly (and even many in the city) don't know who he is.

At the same time, did anyone really know who Mike Stack or Jim Cawley were when they were LG? You or the other PA posters here probably know more but from what I remember from my time in PA I heard almost nothing about them outside of this forum.  

If Fetterman has that high of name recog as lieutenant governor, it would indicate from me that he must be doing something right.

Stack was basically unknown until his and his wife's abuse of their security detail came to light. After that he pretty much became a pariah and came in 5th in the LG Democratic primary as an incumbent. Not sure about Cawley, but the fact that I had to look him up should say something about his notoriety.

Fetterman may be the most well-known LG in the country, his weed tour and post-election beef with Dan Patrick did a lot for his name recognition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a Good feeling D's are gonna do alot better than the Approvals indicate, Midterms aren't Prez Election the GCB is normally in the Mid 30s just like in 2018 and D's still won

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

There is another Democratic debate going on right now featuring all 4 candidates running:

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Malcolm is absolutely KILLING this debate.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Meanwhile, the Republicans are debating and talking over each other about how which degree of authoritarianism they would implement to prevent future imaginary election fraud

[Morning in Atlas]

How hard is the OzHive coping, seething, and malding?

[SnowLabrador]

Meanwhile, the Republicans are debating and talking over each other about how which degree of authoritarianism they would implement to prevent future imaginary election fraud

I watched part of David Pakman's livestream of that debate. Even by GOP standards, it was unhinged.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1518401462153400320

https://twitter.com/phillyward5dems/status/1518527427756048384

Conor Lamb privilege is faking endorsements from random city wards thinking it will win him votes outside of the terminally Atlas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Malcolm is absolutely KILLING this debate.

Fetterman is gonna win this primary is over, he Fetterman has 44% already in the primary in order for Lamb or Keynetta to win one of them had to drop out but neither did, they're going to split the Philly vote and Fetterman is gonna win the rest of the state like he did as LT Governor

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Meanwhile, the Republicans are debating and talking over each other about how which degree of authoritarianism they would implement to prevent future imaginary election fraud

I watched part of David Pakman's livestream of that debate. Even by GOP standards, it was unhinged.

I was also watching his livestream. I don't consume much of his content, but he was very funny. The bit where Oz said Fauci should be fired and he said "Fired?! He should be killed!" made me laugh very hard.

[wbrocks67]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

[Not Me, Us]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

I think they just invited any Dem that made the ballot. I do have to wonder why Khalil is bothering to continue this campaign though, it'd be a miracle if she gets more than 1% of the vote.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

I think they just invited any Dem that made the ballot. I do have to wonder why Khalil is bothering to continue this campaign though, it'd be a miracle if she gets more than 1% of the vote.

Oof I just looked up her website and it looks like a small town therapists blog

[Not Me, Us]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

I think they just invited any Dem that made the ballot. I do have to wonder why Khalil is bothering to continue this campaign though, it'd be a miracle if she gets more than 1% of the vote.

Oof I just looked up her website and it looks like a small town therapists blog

She gives me serious Marianne Williamson vibes. She seems like a nice lady, but I can't imagine why anyone would vote for her when there are two actually serious progressive candidates in the race.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Alex repeatedly demonstrated a failure to understand specific policy or demonstrate what sets her apart from the field other than being a Muslim woman. She def gives big Marianne Williamson vibes, but her coming out against defunding the police while also taking a HUGE pause before coming out in favor of a voluntary assault weapons buyback was bizarre. She doesn’t know if she wants to be to Kenyatta/Fetterman’s left or between them or what.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

For better or worse, Lamb’s clearly doing something wrong if he’s still getting crushed by Fetterman.  At this point, all my concerns still stand and I think Fetterman underperform in the GE.  However, I hope Fetterman proves me wrong and kicks some a** this November!  Congrats, Sawx and hopefully the party does the right the thing and does everything it can to elect Fetterman when he (presumably) gets nominated in a few weeks.

[wbrocks67]

For better or worse, Lamb’s clearly doing something wrong if he’s still getting crushed by Fetterman.  At this point, all my concerns still stand and I think Fetterman underperform in the GE.  However, I hope Fetterman proves me wrong and kicks some a** this November!  Congrats, Sawx and hopefully the party does the right the thing and does everything it can to elect Fetterman when he (presumably) gets nominated in a few weeks.

I think it will. The jogger incident doesn't seem to be resonating (yet) with voters at large.

Like I've said though, being on the ground here in PA, it doesn't feel like a primary is happening. Few yard signs, people not tuned in. The latter really is the most detrimental to Lamb and Kenyatta since they are less known.

[Morning in Atlas]

For better or worse, Lamb’s clearly doing something wrong if he’s still getting crushed by Fetterman.  At this point, all my concerns still stand and I think Fetterman underperform in the GE.  However, I hope Fetterman proves me wrong and kicks some a** this November!  Congrats, Sawx and hopefully the party does the right the thing and does everything it can to elect Fetterman when he (presumably) gets nominated in a few weeks.

Glad to have you come to our side, friend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For better or worse, Lamb’s clearly doing something wrong if he’s still getting crushed by Fetterman.  At this point, all my concerns still stand and I think Fetterman underperform in the GE.  However, I hope Fetterman proves me wrong and kicks some a** this November!  Congrats, Sawx and hopefully the party does the right the thing and does everything it can to elect Fetterman when he (presumably) gets nominated in a few weeks.

What exactly is so wrong with Fetterman? The only points I've heard is the jogger thing (which at this point I think it's obvious it has as much sticking power as whatever was the deal with Hunter Biden's laptop) and...that he's been photographed wearing shorts in public?

[Morning in Atlas]

Big shoutouts to OC who had this right from the getgo.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I do like Fetterman's simple "legalize it" ad.  

He's also apparently employing a 67-county strategy, though I'm skeptical of this tactic if he's actually trying to spread his campaign out across all counties in the state.  Does this strategy work? I feel like I've only heard about it in the context of failure. 

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I do like Fetterman's simple "legalize it" ad.  

He's also apparently employing a 67-county strategy, though I'm skeptical of this tactic if he's actually trying to spread his campaign out across all counties in the state.  Does this strategy work? I feel like I've only heard about it in the context of failure. 

Chuck Grassley does it every time he's up for election IIRC

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

For better or worse, Lamb’s clearly doing something wrong if he’s still getting crushed by Fetterman.  At this point, all my concerns still stand and I think Fetterman underperform in the GE.  However, I hope Fetterman proves me wrong and kicks some a** this November!  Congrats, Sawx and hopefully the party does the right the thing and does everything it can to elect Fetterman when he (presumably) gets nominated in a few weeks.

What exactly is so wrong with Fetterman? The only points I've heard is the jogger thing (which at this point I think it's obvious it has as much sticking power as whatever was the deal with Hunter Biden's laptop) and...that he's been photographed wearing shorts in public?

Republicans will pounce on it in the general and it will turn off white lincoln project Trump-Biden voters

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_042722/

Sort of a weird poll, here's the breakdown and some highlights:

For each candidate, please tell me how likely it is that you will support them in the [Democratic/Republican] primary election for U.S. Senate – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely.  [Note: respondents who already voted were asked for whom they cast their ballot. The candidate chosen was assigned as “very likely” and all others as “not at all likely.”]  [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Very likely|Somewhat likely|Not too likely|Not at all likely|(VOL) Don’t know|(n)

DEMOCRAT                       
John Fetterman   44%   30%   5%   8%   13%   (406)
Malcolm Kenyatta   14%   26%   17%   28%   15%   (406)
Alexandria Khalil   8%   21%   17%   34%   19%   (406)
Conor Lamb   23%   36%   10%   14%   17%   (406)
                        
REPUBLICAN                       
Kathy Barnette   18%   33%   13%   20%   16%   (407)
Jeff Bartos   7%   38%   18%   21%   16%   (407)
George Bochetto   4%   24%   20%   31%   20%   (407)
Sean Gale   5%   25%   23%   28%   19%   (407)
David McCormick   19%   42%   12%   17%   11%   (407)
Dr. Mehmet Oz   22%   29%   11%   31%   8%   (407)
Carla Sands   9%   33%   21%   21%   17%   (407)                       

3/4.
I am going to read you a list of [Democratic/Republican] candidates running for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania this year. For each one, please tell me if you have definitely heard of them, not sure if you’ve heard of them, or if you’ve definitely not heard of them?
[If DEFINITELY HEARD OF:] For each of the following, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of them. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
   
Very favorable|Somewhat favorable|Somewhat unfavorable|Very unfavorable|Heard of, no opinion (VOL)|Not sure if heard of|Definitely not heard of|(n)

DEMOCRAT                               
John Fetterman   42%   26%   3%   2%   8%   7%   13%   (406)
Malcolm Kenyatta   12%   20%   3%   1%   6%   12%   45%   (406)
Alexandria Khalil   1%   10%   1%   0%   5%   18%   65%   (406)
Conor Lamb   19%   32%   4%   2%   7%   11%   24%   (406)
                                
REPUBLICAN                               
Kathy Barnette   15%   22%   3%   2%   10%   16%   34%   (407)
Jeff Bartos   5%   23%   5%   1%   15%   14%   36%   (407)
George Bochetto   1%   6%   3%   0%   2%   19%   68%   (407)
Sean Gale   1%   6%   2%   2%   3%   15%   70%   (407)
David McCormick   14%   37%   9%   6%   14%   8%   12%   (407)
Dr. Mehmet Oz   18%   30%   16%   21%   8%   2%   6%   (407)
Carla Sands   7%   18%   3%   1%   8%   12%   52%   (407)

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from April 20 to 25, 2022 with a probability-based random sample of Pennsylvania voters drawn from a list of registered voters who participated in at least one primary election since 2016. Interviews were conducted by a live telephone interviewer, in English, with 406 registered Democrats (113 landline and 293 cell phone) and 407 registered Republicans (133 landline and 274 cell phone). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for party registration, age, gender, race, education, and region based on state voter registration list information and U.S. Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on each party’s sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
DEMOCRAT   REPUBLICAN
    
40% Male   51% Male
60% Female   49% Female
    
16% 18-34   10% 18-34
21% 35-49   17% 35-49
27% 50-64   36% 50-64
36% 65+   37% 65+
    
74% White   97% White
20% Black     1% Black
4% Hispanic     2% Hispanic
2% Asian/Other     0% Asian/Other
    
58% No degree   69% No degree
42% 4 year degree   31% 4 year degree