Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Person Man]

Still pretty consistent with now over 100K+

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1709598544636633452

 I'm guessing we are heading for another 2022 style result maybe?

[Duke of York]

Still pretty consistent with now over 100K+

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1709598544636633452

 I'm guessing we are heading for another 2022 style result maybe?

what do you mean.? Are you saying Democrats win both chambers?

[Aurelius2]

Virginia doesn't have party registration. Where are the numbers by party coming from?

[CityofSinners]

Virginia doesn't have party registration. Where are the numbers by party coming from?

L2 is a data vendor. Partisanship is modeled from their data. They are widely used by political campaigns.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty rich of VA GOP to complain about RNC not helping when Youngkin's PAC is basically sending them like $1M a day at this point

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1709894988576833871

[Person Man]

Pretty rich of VA GOP to complain about RNC not helping when Youngkin's PAC is basically sending them like $1M a day at this point

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1709894988576833871

Maybe they aren’t too good with money?

[Atlas Force]

Btw, when the last time a single state legislative race received as much national attention as the Gibson one?

There was a special election for the Delaware Senate early in the Trump presidency that got enough attention to get its own Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Delaware%27s_10th_state_senate_district_special_election

[beaver2.0]

Anyone else get the Youtube ad with the creepy whispering saying that if you have any problems at the polling station to call some number? The whispering was bizarre.

[Skill and Chance]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

I could be wrong but I feel like I saw something about some areas not reporting any VBM yet.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

I could be wrong but I feel like I saw something about some areas not reporting any VBM yet.

I know this caused some head scratching in SD24. Newport News updated its numbers once every several days, but all the other counties did it daily, leading to a initially confusing picture.

But it also shouldn't be discounted that these are legislative contests. High-information inner Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria, will know their seats are uber-safe D.

[Duke of York]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

I think a number of those seats are unopposed so that could be a factor.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

NoVA voters are on average more tuned-in to federal politics (it's a local industry in the same way that film is in Hollywood), but I imagine to most of these people the speaker ordeal is old news. If they've been tuned in to federal politics for more than six months, this shouldn't be surprising behavior at all.

[Person Man]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

And it is somewhat heartening that the partisan turnout is where it is even with DC not turning out yet.

[Duke of York]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

And it is somewhat heartening that the partisan turnout is where it is even with DC not turning out yet.

That will probably happen later in the month.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Iirc early vote in 2021 was D +21 and E-day was R +13. 42% of the vote was early.

[Person Man]

Iirc early vote in 2021 was D +21 and E-day was R +13. 42% of the vote was early.

I thought it was D+15-16. And the turnout trends were reversed with those numbers.

[Skill and Chance]

Iirc early vote in 2021 was D +21 and E-day was R +13. 42% of the vote was early.

That was the last election that was still significantly COVID-influenced, so we need to be careful drawing comparisons.  In 2022, the early vote was smaller and more R than expected based on 2020-21, but more Dems turned out day-of than expected based on 2020-21, enough that the overall result was more Dem than 2021.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.  Republicans can reasonably hope to hold the HoD and the probability of a tie (which cannot be broken without a party switch) is meaningful.  I don't think Republicans can reasonably hope to flip the state senate anymore.  They can get to 19 by winning tossups, but the final seat is just too hard.

[Spectator]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

Even almost a year after 2022, I’m still in shock at just how well Democrats did. Arguably did better than in 2018 in several metrics (governorships, Senate, legislatures)

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.

Additional reminder that the high-water mark for Dems in VA will never never be equivalent to presidential or other GE numbers without a complete landslide.  Rural African American turnout in the Southside has so far never matched the levels seen in federal contests. So some seats become harder lifts or just not viable targets. In recent years this has been counterbalanced somewhat by the most likely off cycle voters - politically connected NOVA suburbanites - becoming reliable Dems. But obviously in a year like 2021 when irregular voters surge that matters little.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.

Additional reminder that the high-water mark for Dems in VA will never never be equivalent to presidential or other GE numbers without a complete landslide.  Rural African American turnout in the Southside has so far never matched the levels seen in federal contests. So some seats become harder lifts or just not viable targets. In recent years this has been counterbalanced somewhat by the most likely off cycle voters - politically connected NOVA suburbanites - becoming reliable Dems. But obviously in a year like 2021 when irregular voters surge that matters little.

Yes, for this reason, the Biden +7 Southside seat is being treated as Lean R while the Biden +6 outer NOVA seat is being treated as a tossup in the state senate.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Iirc early vote in 2021 was D +21 and E-day was R +13. 42% of the vote was early.

That was the last election that was still significantly COVID-influenced, so we need to be careful drawing comparisons.  In 2022, the early vote was smaller and more R than expected based on 2020-21, but more Dems turned out day-of than expected based on 2020-21, enough that the overall result was more Dem than 2021.

I thought in 2022, Republicans had really good turnout, but they did worse on persuasion.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if we’re underestimating the possibility that results mostly converge with federal partisanship, and Dems win decent majorities (like 58-42 and 23-17). It seems like in 2022, Dems really didn’t run much behind Biden numbers in state leg races even in suburbs that saw downballot lag in 2020. Infact in places like Johnson County KS Dems won Trump seats in the state leg.

That would put Dems just a seat or 2 short of winning everything Biden won in both chambers, which would be an astounding result relative to recent history.  Biden's performance was the all-time Dem peak in VA in a close national election.  Biden won VA by 10%, then Youngkin won by 2%, then House Dems cumulatively won by 3% statewide in 2022.

I'm coming around toward a halfway scenario where they win everything Biden won by at least 7%, which would be something like 22D/18R in the senate and 52D/48R in the HoD.  The polls we have seen so far all look like 2022.

Additional reminder that the high-water mark for Dems in VA will never never be equivalent to presidential or other GE numbers without a complete landslide.  Rural African American turnout in the Southside has so far never matched the levels seen in federal contests. So some seats become harder lifts or just not viable targets. In recent years this has been counterbalanced somewhat by the most likely off cycle voters - politically connected NOVA suburbanites - becoming reliable Dems. But obviously in a year like 2021 when irregular voters surge that matters little.

Yes, for this reason, the Biden +7 Southside seat is being treated as Lean R while the Biden +6 outer NOVA seat is being treated as a tossup in the state senate.

Are you talking about the Stafford seat? I thought Durant was actually seen as a slight favorite there.