CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326309067007033344
Man we really need a bigger lead.

Garcia !!!

[n1240]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

It's not necessarily against conventional wisdom - this is a different election and states that conduct their elections mostly through VBM have consistently shown GOP doing better in late mail counts (AZ, CA, WA, NJ), whereas states that are predominately in-person voting show Dems consistently doing very strong among mail-in voters (PA, WI, MI, soon to be NY). It's a bit of a factor of Dems being quicker to send in their ballots, while Republicans generally sent them in at a steady rate.

CA seems pretty weird, in that regard. Steel and Kim have pulled away with the late ballots but Valadao and Garcia seem to have stalled. Is there something different between the two pairs of races?

I'd consider CA-25 of more of an outlier than CA-21. CA-21 is weird because Kern was significantly lagging behind on their ballot count compared to other counties in the district, which is why it made Valadao appear a bit safer than he actually was, and now at this point Kern is the only county with a substantial amount of votes in the district. CA-25 is odd because LA county as a whole dropped a solid pro-Dem batch yesterday, could just be a matter of LA County having more of the type of voter that's likely to mail in their ballot late, if that makes sense (younger, higher minority pop). Regardless, most counties in California show a trend towards Trump relative to their election day count - just some examples

Alameda - Biden+66% at end of election night, Biden+58 on yesterday's batch
Kern - Trump+1 at end of election night, Trump+28 in recent batch
Riverside - Biden+12 at end of election night, Biden+4 in recent batch
San Francisco - Biden+66 at end of election night, Biden+48 in recent batch

The recent LA dump was basically the only large batch where I've seen Biden doing better than election night (+47 on new, +45 at end of enight).

[BudgieForce]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

Good to know you support QAnon

Hilarious! Burgess Owens does not support QAnon Theory! What the hell are u smoking here?

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/28/burgess-owens-suggests/

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

No, you're right, I don't have any info from where in Simi these votes are from, or what areas are still left from LA county

[Matty]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

Not sure. I imagine the race is in recount territory

It is insane to me that Garcia isn’t running away with this, despite the repubs doing very well nationally in house races.

What happened here?

[2016]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

Good to know you support QAnon

Hilarious! Burgess Owens does not support QAnon Theory! What the hell are u smoking here?

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/10/28/burgess-owens-suggests/

I don't take it seriously what he said there! I just want one more GOP House Member. That's all what counts here to see Pelosi sweating her pants out!

[Bootes Void]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

you know which batches are left?

[Tekken_Guy]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

Not sure. I imagine the race is in recount territory

It is insane to me that Garcia isn’t running away with this, despite the repubs doing very well nationally in house races.

What happened here?

"Why isn't Don Cazayoux running away with this? Obama's coattails are supposed to create a Blue Tsunami!"

[Young Conservative]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

Not sure. I imagine the race is in recount territory

It is insane to me that Garcia isn’t running away with this, despite the repubs doing very well nationally in house races.

What happened here?

North LA suburbs are very different from Orange county.

[LimoLiberal]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Will Utah's new moderate FF RINO governor make sure there's a central SLC seat? It's a terrible indictment on the state (and gerrymandering) that they're sending Burgess Owens to Congress over Ben McAdams.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Garcia still wins with the LA later dumps (maybe provisionals?) breaking R, but it will definitely be close.

Not sure about #CA21, but my instinct is that the race ends up bouncing between 51-52-48-49 Valadao-Cox with continuously less Democratic Kerns updates balanced by everything else. But I don't have a really good handle on the vote count there.

Biden won the first batch of Onandaga (Syracuse) mail-ins 80-17 (he had been winning the county 53-44) which makes me really curious about NY-22. Brindisi needs like 76% of the mail-ins assuming no ballots are disqualified and I think he'll get close.

For NJ-07, the reason I'm so sure that Kean will win is that everything out seems to be provisional and he'll net more from them in every county. It's just basic partisan vote disparity stuff, Joe Biden didn't even win the in-person votes in Mecklenburg County.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326314825056595970?s=19

[LimoLiberal]

God, the late vote dumps have really wrecked California democrats. Such a dramatic shift from 2018.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326314825056595970?s=19

Yeah, I think Kim got this now! There isn't enough for Cisneros in LA County to close a 4K Gap + Kim still has Orange County to boot with.

[lfromnj]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Will Utah's new moderate FF RINO governor make sure there's a central SLC seat? It's a terrible indictment on the state (and gerrymandering) that they're sending Burgess Owens to Congress over Ben McAdams.

Unlikely, screwing over  your own party incumbent's almost never happens. Austria got screwed in Ohio in 2012 but that's because the GOP realized they had to place a Cbus sink and they were losing 2 seats to begin with.

[n1240]

Smith nets like 54 votes off about 3k votes in LA county, still down 159

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326316793229578240?s=19

Mike is still in this..

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326316793229578240?s=19

Mike is still in this..

Disappointing Ballot drop for Smith here no doubt about it! I was getting nervous that Mike's lead would be taken away again.

[Roll Roons]

When can we expect the first absentee dumps from NY?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326317338736562176?s=19

[n1240]

Ventura County seems to be effectively done with their count, LA might have around 140k left countywide which translates to around 8000 in CA-25, unless they prioritized counting CA-25 ballots and there aren't any left.

[n1240]

When can we expect the first absentee dumps from NY?

Most counties won't post totals until they finish counting and then bundle it together with their official results. Onondaga is posting daily updates and Biden is currently up 62, running 53 points ahead of his final election day margin. (Katko is also running 57 points behind election day).

[LimoLiberal]

When can we expect the first absentee dumps from NY?

This is all I've seen so far.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyDabbundo/status/1326285688229294081

[Matty]

Why aren’t they calling CA39 for young Kim?

She is barely losing the LA county ballot dumps, and her lead is over 4K

There just isn’t enough vote out there for Gil