CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Frenchrepublican]

Minnesota looks beautiful, ^ also, why do you think Hart will win?

Yeah, that's a error, I guess that Miller Meeks is probably favoured but it's so tight that Hart could still win.

[VAR]

Oh also LOL at Gross underperforming Galvin by nearly 4 points.

[2016]

I think CNN has the most accurate House Map right now so I'll go with them from now on until everything is decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

DEMOCRATS 218
REPUBLICANS 203
14 Races Uncalled

For the purpose of this Exercise I'll give CA-25 (Garcia vs Smith; Too many LA County Ballots left),
IL-14 (Underwood vs Oberweis), NY-3 (Suozzi vs Santos), NY-18 (Maloney vs Farley); NY-19 (Delgado vs Van de Water) to the Democrats bringing them to 223.

I'll also give CA-39 (Cisneros vs Kim), CA-21 (Cox vs Valadao; Since Kings won't restart counting until Nov. 21 and is Valadao's stronghold Cox would need a lead heading into that count), IA-2 (Miller-Meeks vs Hart), LA-5 (Runoff between two Republicans), NY-24 (Katko vs Balter) and UT-4 (McAdams vs Owens) to the Republicans bringing them to 209.

Three Races I see as totally Jump Balls: NY-2 (Open; Garbarino vs Gordon); NY-11 (Rose vs Malliotakis) and NY-22 (Brindisi vs Tenney).

Best Case Scenario: Republicans win all 3 bringing them to 212-223 in the House.
Worst Case Scenatio: Republicans lose all 3 bringing them to 209-226 in the House.

Republicans would need to flip only 9 Seats to win House Control back in 2022 in a worst-case scenario.

Those “jump balls” should all go GOP.

Speaking of NY, you don't think the Dem candidate will win about 50% of the absentee ballots of registered Pubs and 100% of everything else? The total absentees might by as much as about 10% higher than the totals here, but that is about the max increase.

Acting like every single Congressional Race left in New York State will go Democratic is very bad on your behalf!

[Pollster]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

What mistakes?

Perhaps running too much on the attack, and not defining your own candidate as anything beyond Generic D/R.

Mostly this - Gideon never really crafted a narrative or message for her campaign. Both her positive messaging and negative attacks were jumbled, neither creating a clear identity/brand for herself nor prosecuting a consistent and persuasive case against Collins. Collins' campaign wasn't much better, but she was able to rely on being a known institution in a way that Gideon obviously couldn't.

[VAR]

In 2018, Will Hurd won the Bexar County (suburban) portion of TX-23 by 4 points. Gonzales, despite not being a moderate, did only slightly worse this year - won it by 2 points.

[VAR]

Abigail Spanberger actually improved in suburban Chesterfield and Henrico counties. Due to increased rural turnout, though, she did slightly worse districtwide.

[n1240]

Having reviewed NY-11 I think the race ends up close but Rose still loses (2-3% Malliotakis win). 58% of ballots are D and 19% of ballots are Rep/Con. If Brooklyn is lagging behind on processing their mail counts, which they have done in the past and are currently doing now, (mail processed from Nov 3 -> Nov 6 -> Nov 9 has gone from 10312 -> 14764 -> 17191) and actually has 6k+ more than they're currently reporting to count, then Rose might have a legitimate shot at winning. Can explain my math further if anyone is interested.

Despite having the same margin (percentage wise), I expect Garbarino to win easily in NY-02 because the proportion of Republican ballots is so much higher in this district and there is a larger gap in votes between the two compared to NY-11 (45k vs 36k)

[Roll Roons]

Having reviewed NY-11 I think the race ends up close but Rose still loses (2-3% Malliotakis win). 58% of ballots are D and 19% of ballots are Rep/Con. If Brooklyn is lagging behind on processing their mail counts, which they have done in the past and are currently doing now, (mail processed from Nov 3 -> Nov 6 -> Nov 9 has gone from 10312 -> 14764 -> 17191) and actually has 6k+ more than they're currently reporting to count, then Rose might have a legitimate shot at winning. Can explain my math further if anyone is interested.

Despite having the same margin (percentage wise), I expect Garbarino to win easily in NY-02 because the proportion of Republican ballots is so much higher in this district and there is a larger gap in votes between the two compared to NY-11 (45k vs 36k)

I feel like Staten Island has a lot of registered Dems who still vote R for presidential and downballot. Malliotakis almost certainly has this. Does Brindisi have a chance? That race is actually closer than NY-02 or NY-11.

[Torie]

"Acting like every single Congressional Race left in New York State will go Democratic is very bad on your behalf!"

I revel in being a bad ass, and look forward as my health improves, to continuing my streak. Thanks for the compliment.

[n1240]

Having reviewed NY-11 I think the race ends up close but Rose still loses (2-3% Malliotakis win). 58% of ballots are D and 19% of ballots are Rep/Con. If Brooklyn is lagging behind on processing their mail counts, which they have done in the past and are currently doing now, (mail processed from Nov 3 -> Nov 6 -> Nov 9 has gone from 10312 -> 14764 -> 17191) and actually has 6k+ more than they're currently reporting to count, then Rose might have a legitimate shot at winning. Can explain my math further if anyone is interested.

Despite having the same margin (percentage wise), I expect Garbarino to win easily in NY-02 because the proportion of Republican ballots is so much higher in this district and there is a larger gap in votes between the two compared to NY-11 (45k vs 36k)

I feel like Staten Island has a lot of registered Dems who still vote R at the presidential and downballot results. Malliotakis almost certainly has this. Does Brindisi have a chance? That race is actually closer than NY-02 or NY-11.

Yeah, considering the registration stats within the district I may have spoken hastily, although mail-in voters tend to have a strong Dem lean relative to their registration as well, so it's a matter of how much these factors are able to cancel each other out.

I think Brindisi probably ends up losing by around 2% at this rate based on Cortland County absentee results, since Brindisi is doing about 4% worse than 2018 overall. He basically needs to run up the score in Broome and win Oneida, but I'm not sure if either is likely at this time.

Also as a reference point to show how strong absentee ballots can lean Dem despite returns by party registration - Cortland County had about 29% of their returned ballots as Rep/Con, but Tenney only received 23% of the absentee vote in Cortland.

[Torie]

The math above corresponds with mine.

[VAR]

Miller-Meeks ahead by 47 votes.

[n1240]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

[Roll Roons]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

Yeah, this is really coming down to the wire. Especially since Millburn (the only Essex town in NJ-07) and Union are the bluest parts of the district.

Additionally, AP officially called Tillis as the winner in NC, leaving all Senate races settled aside from the GA runoffs.

[2016]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

Yeah, this is really coming down to the wire. Especially since Millburn (the only Essex town in NJ-07) and Union are the bluest parts of the district.

Additionally, AP officially called Tillis as the winner in NC, leaving all Senate races settled aside from the GA runoffs.

Even if Kean loses he should try again in 2022. Probably has a better shot then given that there will be no Statewide Race to juice up Democratic Turnout.

[BudgieForce]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

[VAR]

Kean will win

[cg41386]

Malinowski isn't losing.

[BudgieForce]

Kean will win

Malinowski isn't losing.

Now I'm more confused.

[Torie]

Kean will win

Kean will win

Now im more confused.  

Some make an effort to post something of value, and some do not. Who knew?

And unless you just made the numbers up, you are in the former category,  in the opinion of this old brain.

[cg41386]

Kean will win

Malinowski isn't losing.

Now I'm more confused.

The race has been called for Malinowski, so I don't see how Kean would suddenly be able to come from behind and win. It would have to be a monumental miscalculation or something.

[BudgieForce]

Kean will win

Kean will win

Now im more confused.  

Some make an effort to post something of value, and some do not. Who knew?

And unless you just made the numbers up, you are in the former category,  in the opinion of this old brain.

I don't think I made the numbers up. The NJ globe estimates there are 40,000 ballots to be counted in NJ-7. I did some math to see how much Kean needed to take the lead.

[Roll Roons]

Kean will win

Malinowski isn't losing.

Now I'm more confused.

The race has been called for Malinowski, so I don't see how Kean would suddenly be able to come from behind and win. It would have to be a monumental miscalculation or something.

Sometimes the AP calls races incorrectly. Look at what happened in CA-21 in 2018. FWIW, DDHQ hasn't called this race.

[lfromnj]

Kean will win

Malinowski isn't losing.

Now I'm more confused.

The race has been called for Malinowski, so I don't see how Kean would suddenly be able to come from behind and win. It would have to be a monumental miscalculation or something.

TJ Cox won last time after the race was called, networks won't uncall a race till the lead is switched because it looks bad. AZ was pretty close and should not have been called by Fox this year really. They didn't know the remaining ballots fully.

[n1240]

SLC is now likely finished counting, McAdams nets 83 votes on this batch, seems like UT-04 is over.