CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[2016]

Alaska just dumped 50,000 ballots

Sullivan's E-Night Margin + 57,616
Sullivan's Margin + 52.995

That's it! This Race should be called NOW. There isn't enough Vote left for Gross.

Alaska only had 175K Absentee/Early Ballots to count. Assuming these margins hold Sullivan will prevail with about 40K.

[GALeftist]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

I think CA-34 is already in the Democrats' total of 218, because there are 16 races out there not counting it:

CA- 21, 25, 39
NY- 1, 2, 3, 11, 18, 19, 22, 24
UT-4
AK-1
IA-2
IL-14
LA-5

You are correct, I am a dumb dumb and forgot about Alaska. I shall edit the post posthaste.

[Tiger08]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

Not sure. I imagine the race is in recount territory

It is insane to me that Garcia isn’t running away with this, despite the repubs doing very well nationally in house races.

What happened here?

North LA suburbs are very different from Orange county.

Legitimate question: what are the North LA suburbs like?

[SevenEleven]

I genuinely don't know what I'm talking about, but since this recent drop was from Ventura county, isnt this semi-good news for Smith? There's plenty out from Los Angeles that could help her retake the lead.

Not sure. I imagine the race is in recount territory

It is insane to me that Garcia isn’t running away with this, despite the repubs doing very well nationally in house races.

What happened here?

North LA suburbs are very different from Orange county.

Legitimate question: what are the North LA suburbs like?

Less wealthy, less Asian, less White.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

Revenge. Served. Cold. They don't call it the place where good Republicans go to die for nothing.

Also, has anyone else noticed that Mike Levin is up by less than 7 in CA-49? That seat was thought to be gone forever.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

It seems like Young Kim will have her revenge! I still remember how she participated in the freshman group that was photographed on the steps of the U.S. Capitol soon after the midterms in 2018, only to lose the seat once all of the ballots had been counted. This time, she will be there as a legitimate Representative-Elect.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326370009506078722

Riots in major cities -> Weak condemnation by some democrats -> Korean-Americans in LA County shift right

Diamond Bar, CA is where many Korean-American Kpop idols are from.

[BudgieForce]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

[LimoLiberal]

California Democrats need to run Asian-American women in these districts in 2022. They risk allowing Kim and Steel to get entrenched by solidifying the Vietnamese, Chinese, and Korean bloc votes without Trump as an anchor.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

California Democrats need to run Asian-American women in these districts in 2022. They risk allowing Kim and Steel to get entrenched by solidifying the Vietnamese, Chinese, and Korean bloc votes without Trump as an anchor.

That's....really not how those groups vote in that area (aside from Vietnamese-Americans).

[Matty]

the california democratic party should be absolutely embarrassed at some of these results.

trump running 5 points ahead in LA than in 2016?

OC trending R?

Losing a bunch of districts won in 2018?

[lfromnj]

In LA it was just like 2 to 1 gains for Biden vs Trump which swings it to the right but still moves the country as a whole to the left.

[BudgieForce]

the california democratic party should be absolutely embarrassed at some of these results.

trump running 5 points ahead in LA than in 2016?

OC trending R?

Losing a bunch of districts won in 2018?

At the very least, it saved democrats the trouble of losing these districts in 2022. 

[Matty]

California Democrats need to run Asian-American women in these districts in 2022. They risk allowing Kim and Steel to get entrenched by solidifying the Vietnamese, Chinese, and Korean bloc votes without Trump as an anchor.

That's....really not how those groups vote in that area (aside from Vietnamese-Americans).

honestly not so sure anymore.

The gop surge with the asian vote was absolutely real. probably across all groups of asians, too.

now the question is: was this 2020 specific or are we seeing real trends?

the riots didn't help, nor did the covid restrictions.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Could someone explain why NY-3 hasn't reported anything new for a week now? What's taking them so long to count?

Besides that, my guess is that when all is said and done the Dems win 222 seats. The Squad might actually have some bargaining power with a majority that narrow.

[n1240]

Could someone explain why NY-3 hasn't reported anything new for a week now? What's taking them so long to count?

Besides that, my guess is that when all is said and done the Dems win 222 seats. The Squad might actually have some bargaining power with a majority that narrow.

NY counties don't start counting mail until at least a week after election day, and a lot of counties don't report these results until they finish counting (although some media outlets might get a hold of them in advance).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

u know marianette miller meeks was a perennial candidate
she ran for iowa 2nd 3 times and lost
this is her fourth time
and now she gets to prolly be a congresswoman
after losing to loebsack 3 times

[kwabbit]

u know marianette miller meeks was a perennial candidate
she ran for iowa 2nd 3 times and lost
this is her fourth time
and now she gets to prolly be a congresswoman
after losing to loebsack 3 times

Good to see a perennial candidate make it into congress. Jim Oberweis got so close in IL-14. Maybe Rocky de la Fuente can make it as well. He sets his aim too high. Maybe if he went for a congressional race he could get a nomination.

[GALeftist]

the california democratic party should be absolutely embarrassed at some of these results.

trump running 5 points ahead in LA than in 2016?

OC trending R?

Losing a bunch of districts won in 2018?

At the very least, it saved democrats the trouble of losing these districts in 2022. 

Probably at least one of the Cali districts is coming back in 2022 due to redistricting. I do feel this way about some other districts, though, especially IA-02 (come back daddy Loebsack)

[Arkansas Yankee]

u know marianette miller meeks was a perennial candidate
she ran for iowa 2nd 3 times and lost
this is her fourth time
and now she gets to prolly be a congresswoman
after losing to loebsack 3 times

If at first you do not succeed, try, try again.  Admire her determination.

[kwabbit]

the california democratic party should be absolutely embarrassed at some of these results.

trump running 5 points ahead in LA than in 2016?

OC trending R?

Losing a bunch of districts won in 2018?

At the very least, it saved democrats the trouble of losing these districts in 2022. 

Probably at least one of the Cali districts is coming back in 2022 due to redistricting. I do feel this way about some other districts, though, especially IA-02 (come back daddy Loebsack)

Iowa has a non-partisan redistricting system, where they're not allowed to see election data. Assuming the drawers go with the 4 corners style map they have now, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get 3 of the 4 seats when the statewide congressional vote is likely to be R+10 in a Biden midterm.

[GALeftist]

the california democratic party should be absolutely embarrassed at some of these results.

trump running 5 points ahead in LA than in 2016?

OC trending R?

Losing a bunch of districts won in 2018?

At the very least, it saved democrats the trouble of losing these districts in 2022. 

Probably at least one of the Cali districts is coming back in 2022 due to redistricting. I do feel this way about some other districts, though, especially IA-02 (come back daddy Loebsack)

Iowa has a non-partisan redistricting system, where they're not allowed to see election data. Assuming the drawers go with the 4 corners style map they have now, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get 3 of the 4 seats when the statewide congressional vote is likely to be R+10 in a Biden midterm.

That was my point. Even if Hart squeaks it out this cycle IA-02 is probably gone in 22.

[kwabbit]

the california democratic party should be absolutely embarrassed at some of these results.

trump running 5 points ahead in LA than in 2016?

OC trending R?

Losing a bunch of districts won in 2018?

At the very least, it saved democrats the trouble of losing these districts in 2022. 

Probably at least one of the Cali districts is coming back in 2022 due to redistricting. I do feel this way about some other districts, though, especially IA-02 (come back daddy Loebsack)

Iowa has a non-partisan redistricting system, where they're not allowed to see election data. Assuming the drawers go with the 4 corners style map they have now, I don't see how the GOP doesn't get 3 of the 4 seats when the statewide congressional vote is likely to be R+10 in a Biden midterm.

That was my point. Even if Hart squeaks it out this cycle IA-02 is probably gone in 22.

My bad I thought you meant that Miller-Meeks will be defeated in 2022. I thought your first point was that the CA redistricting would box out of one of the OC Republicans.

[VAR]

It's embarrassing the NRCC spent in Arkansas of all places while triaging ME-02.

[Pericles]

It's embarrassing the NRCC spent in Arkansas of all places while triaging ME-02.

AR-02 was polling as a close race and looked like the kind of seat with suburban trends that could flip in a big blue wave. However the NRCC should have had accurate internal district polls, it seems the district polling was off too and we don't know why.