CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Frenchrepublican]

Spartz is leading Hale by 4 points with 98% in.

The race has been called.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1324769025533116417

LOL. So for all the talk about how awful Amy McGrath was, she actually outperformed Biden by the most out of them all. Not saying all that money should've been thrown her way but her campaign must've been a helluva lot better than people were giving credit for.

Meanwhile WTF Sara Gideon? "Concerned" Collins was a practical meme among liberals and they've been vowing to get rid of her after 2018 since before the Dems even had a challenger but it was all just one gigantic bubble lol.

It's just that KY is more D friendly in senate races than in presidential races ; still despite spending
 + 100 millions dollars McGrath is underperforming Jim Gray, not sure that's very impressive.

[Frenchrepublican]

We wouldn't have flipped this one with a better recruit since Biden won here as well.

By how much did he won it ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

I'm pretty certain that if the NRSC in 2018 had put in WV the ressources that democrats have poured in ME Manchin would have lost by a not that tight margin.

[Frenchrepublican]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

I'm pretty certain that if the NRSC in 2018 had put in WV the ressources that democrats have poured in ME Manchin would have lost by a not that tight margin.

What do you mean by “resources?” You can dump all the money you want into a race, you’ll still lose if you’re using a flimsy message against a politician who overwhelming majorities have a long history of voting for. A bad message doesn’t work just because you shout it louder.

If you run during eight months non stop negative ads worth +90 millions $ against a democrat who is running in the most pro Trump state in the country, which happen by the way to be a pretty cheap state, it is pretty assured that the democrat in question would lose, just look at what happened in MN-7 where '' unbeatable titan / strong incumbent / farmer hero Collin Peterson '' lost by a double digit margin.

[Frenchrepublican]

What do you mean by “resources?” You can dump all the money you want into a race, you’ll still lose if you’re using a flimsy message against a politician who overwhelming majorities have a long history of voting for. A bad message doesn’t work just because you shout it louder.

I mean, there was a lot of stuff they could have attacked him on (flip-flop on Planned Parenthood funding, only voting for Kavanaugh after Collins had already decided, his support for Clinton, his lobbying/pharma ties, etc.). I do think ‘liberal puppet gone Washington and beholden to Chuck Schumer’ actually would have been a winning message, but obviously condensing and effectively disseminating said message is an entirely different story. They also allowed Manchin to nuke Morrisey early with negative ads when he had the airwaves to himself, his favorability rating on election day was abysmal.

I can’t wrap my head around the fact that they didn’t even push for Jenkins -- Morrisey was just an atrocious candidate. Losing that race was absolutely inexcusable.

This

I couldn't say it better ; losing this race (and the MT one) is pathetic. What a missed opportunity.

[Frenchrepublican]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

I'm pretty certain that if the NRSC in 2018 had put in WV the ressources that democrats have poured in ME Manchin would have lost by a not that tight margin.

What do you mean by “resources?” You can dump all the money you want into a race, you’ll still lose if you’re using a flimsy message against a politician who overwhelming majorities have a long history of voting for. A bad message doesn’t work just because you shout it louder.

If you run during eight months non stop negative ads worth +90 millions $ against a democrat who is running in the most pro Trump state in the country it is pretty assured that he would lose.

You don’t win a race against an institution by spending $90 million insulting them. The proper message against Manchin is to say “a vote for Manchin is a vote against Trump” and force him to talk about issues that Democrats lose on and every time he has gone against Trump/GOP priorities (which is often). Instead all of their ads were about opioids and coal, which allowed Manchin to highlight all the pork he’s secured on both issues and tie himself to Trump, and to go on offense on healthcare (the fact that Manchin was ever on offense was a monumental failure on the GOP’s part). What’s odd is that the campaign against Manchin started very strong but collapsed when the Republicans stepped on the healthcare landmine.

Yeah, that what I mean by negative ads ; you highlight the fact that he votes most of the time with the left wing of his party rather than with Trump, you have this picture where he stands with pro abortion activists so you put that in ad, he also endorsed Clinton in 2008 and 2016 so you put an emphasis on this fact (especially considering that there are many photos where he stands with her) ; in other words you try to nationalize the race.

[Frenchrepublican]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

I'm pretty certain that if the NRSC in 2018 had put in WV the ressources that democrats have poured in ME Manchin would have lost by a not that tight margin.

Manchin voted for Kavanaugh so I think you're wrong here.

Collins and Manchin played their States pretty well. Manchin knew if he had voted against Brett M. Kavanaugh he would have lost. Same with Collins this year. Had she voted to confirm ACB she would have been a GONER.

I don't think though Manchin will survive 2024.

Manchin voted to confirm Kavanaugh only when it was clear that would be confirmed anyway, GOP should have branded Manchin as a hypocrit for waiting so long.

[Frenchrepublican]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

I'm pretty certain that if the NRSC in 2018 had put in WV the ressources that democrats have poured in ME Manchin would have lost by a not that tight margin.

What do you mean by “resources?” You can dump all the money you want into a race, you’ll still lose if you’re using a flimsy message against a politician who overwhelming majorities have a long history of voting for. A bad message doesn’t work just because you shout it louder.

If you run during eight months non stop negative ads worth +90 millions $ against a democrat who is running in the most pro Trump state in the country it is pretty assured that he would lose.

You don’t win a race against an institution by spending $90 million insulting them. The proper message against Manchin is to say “a vote for Manchin is a vote against Trump” and force him to talk about issues that Democrats lose on and every time he has gone against Trump/GOP priorities (which is often). Instead all of their ads were about opioids and coal, which allowed Manchin to highlight all the pork he’s secured on both issues and tie himself to Trump, and to go on offense on healthcare (the fact that Manchin was ever on offense was a monumental failure on the GOP’s part). What’s odd is that the campaign against Manchin started very strong but collapsed when the Republicans stepped on the healthcare landmine.

Yeah, that what I mean by negative ads ; you highlight the fact that he votes most of the time with the left wing of his party, you have this picture where he stands with pro abortion activists so you put that in ad, he endorsed Clinton in 2008 and 2016 so you put an emphasis on this fact.....

This entire approach to campaigns is exactly why Manchin is still a Senator.

"Manchin took a picture with abortion activists" -> Manchin responds by highlighting all of the anti-abortion judges he's voted for (Kavanaugh), says something stupid but effective like "I've got my personal opinions, but we should leave it to the states."

"He votes most of the time with the left wing of his party" -> Manchin responds by highlighting all of the times he's inconsequentially voted against his party on high profile votes that he wasn't needed for (which is exactly why he does this).

"He endorsed Clinton in 2008 and 2016" -> Manchin dodges the question by saying that he's "grateful that Donald Trump is a President who cares so much about our state, and I've been able to work with him to secure important funding for [this] and [that]. I'm proud of my ability to work with anybody to get things done for West Virginia. It's all about West Virginia."

If you're going to run attack ads against a well-known and well-defined candidate, you need a message that can't be easily demolished by a deeply skilled politician/candidate like Manchin. You need to force him into a conversation he can't win or dodge, on issues that animate partisan voters.

Well give some examples


Because by definition any conversation, any attack can in theory be dodged. For example if you attack Manchin on the gun control bill he cosponsored in 2013, he could very well respond that he is a longtime gun owner, that never he would threaten the 2nd amendment, he could obviously highlight the fact he was endorsed numerous times by the NRA.... if I follow you logic, a logic which was probably shared by republican strategists, Manchin is a unbeatable titan and no attack can stick to him.

[Frenchrepublican]

Well give some examples


Because by definition any conversation, any attack can in theory be dodged. For example if you attack Manchin on the gun control bill he cosponsored in 2013, he could very well respond that he is a longtime gun owner, that never he would threaten the 2nd amendment, he could obviously highlight the fact he was endorsed numerous times by the NRA.... if I follow you logic, a logic which was probably shared by republican strategists, Manchin is a unbeatable titan and no attack can stick to him.

Frankly, if I were running a campaign against Manchin I'd use the same playbook Cramer used against Heitkamp.

"We all like Joe, but we don't like the way Joe votes in Washington."
"It's not about him, it's about the way he chooses to lead."
"President Trump needs somebody who's with him through thick and thin, not when it's convenient."
"When he votes against [something to do with a Trump priority that wasn't accomplished, like the wall], it shows what being in Washington all this time has done to him."

This nationalizes the race and evokes partisan identity. The only possible response to attacks like this is explanative defensiveness that tacitly confirms the accusation. The voter (most of whom have supported this candidate before) is not made to feel blamed or stupid for their previous vote, but rather sympathized with and given a way out. The incumbent is trapped responding with something like "I'll work with the President when it's in [state]'s interest, and oppose him when it's not" which only further evokes partisan identity and reinforces that the incumbent is not aligned with the voter in a partisan way as much as the voter probably wants them to be. It's really easy to get buried in this trap, especially when running in a state that voted 42 points against your party.

Spend $90 million on making this the narrative and you win.

For the record, I'm not a Republican strategist, I'm a Democratic one, and it is paradoxically a lot easier to strategize against members of your own party rather than the other (typically because you are more likely to believe your own bullsh**t to a fault when assessing the vulnerabilities of the opposition party and the wherewithal of their voters).

Yeah I agree with you, that's a good strategy. Now TBH if you want to defeat an incumbent politician you have to air some substantial attacks too, Heitkamp for example was also targeted on her political positions and votes in Congress.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/heitkamps-embrace-of-illegal-immigrants-hit-by-trump-aligned-group

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0gAnemsfqI&feature=youtu.be

[Frenchrepublican]

So is this an accurate summary of all the flips/uncertain races?

Confirmed D to R flips:
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
MN-07
NM-02
OK-05
SC-01

Confirmed R to D flips:
GA-07
NC-02
NC-06

Uncalled but likely staying R:
AK-AL
CA-08
NY-01
NY-02
NY-24
TX-24 (Called by DDHQ but not AP/NYT)

Uncalled but likely flipping from D to R:
CA-39
CA-48
NY-11
NY-22

Unclear:
CA-21 I'd move this to the next level.
CA-25
IA-02
NJ-07 (AP call was likely premature)
UT-04

Uncalled but likely staying D:
AZ-01
IL-14
NY-03
NY-18
NY-19
WA-08

All the late California votes appear to be more favorable to the Republican than the Democrat, than they were on election night.

CA-8 went from +16,680 to +24,925 based on Monday's results.

CA-21 closed a tiny bit, but it appears that votes were released from only one county.

CA-25 Smith took the lead, but only votes from Los Angeles county were updated.

California is really horrible about letting counties count at their own pace.

CA-39 Kim's lead expanded from +2940 to +3550.

CA-48 Steele's lead increased from +6191 to +7346.

CA and NY officials should be ashamed of their voting system. What a mess.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems losing two House seats in Iowa while expecting to defeat Ernst would be hilarious.

And Axne may be on borrowed time, and could easily go down to defeat in 2022. Moreover, what happened in the race between Feenstra and Scholten? I'm assuming that Feenstra won by double digits, since he's not Steve King?

They might just gerrymander iowa 3 1.

Yeah and it would even be a pretty clean one.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems losing two House seats in Iowa while expecting to defeat Ernst would be hilarious.

And Axne may be on borrowed time, and could easily go down to defeat in 2022. Moreover, what happened in the race between Feenstra and Scholten? I'm assuming that Feenstra won by double digits, since he's not Steve King?

Feenstra won by 24%, slightly underperforming Trump who carried the district by 27%.

Dems losing two House seats in Iowa while expecting to defeat Ernst would be hilarious.

And Axne may be on borrowed time, and could easily go down to defeat in 2022. Moreover, what happened in the race between Feenstra and Scholten? I'm assuming that Feenstra won by double digits, since he's not Steve King?

Axne was really, really lucky to get David Young again.

This seat was always a heavy lift tbh. Trump barely carried IA-03 this year, by less than a thousand votes IIRC. Axne is a strong-ish incumbent, so I think she would've survived even if she had a stronger opponent.

It makes sense, this is the most '' urban '' district of the state.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

Yup gotta take into account the bias of the commisions(generally who controls it from the begining)

AZ will be a lean R commision, AZ01 is gonna be a northern district that will be Likely R and AZ02will recede a bit from inner Tucson.

CA will def be Dem heavy too,

Michigan will probably be D favorable considering they are borderline teaching the commission members critical race theory.

It looks pretty hard to draw 4 safe or likely D seats in Orange, no ?

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

This looks like a CONCESSION by Rep. Harley Rouda!

Well, congratulations to Michelle Park Steel then as the 1st Korean American elected to Congress

Already filed to run against Steel in 2022. lol.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326226014922420224?s=19

Good, enjoy your two year rental while you can

You expect 2022 to be a blue wave or what ?

Just you wait for OC redistricting.

Yup gotta take into account the bias of the commisions(generally who controls it from the begining)

AZ will be a lean R commision, AZ01 is gonna be a northern district that will be Likely R and AZ02will recede a bit from inner Tucson.

CA will def be Dem heavy too,

Michigan will probably be D favorable considering they are borderline teaching the commission members critical race theory.

It looks pretty hard to draw 4 safe or likely D seats in Orange, no ?

Not at all if you group Huntington Beach with Long Beach and South County with Oceanside/Encinitas. Either way, you can make the coastal seat quite Democratic with a nice dose of Irvine.

Can they do a such thing ? I thought that they had to respect as much as possible counties borders and not splitting communities of interests.

[Frenchrepublican]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

Very unsure about CA-21 / CA-25 / UT-4 / IA-2

[Frenchrepublican]

So what do you guys think will be the final makes up come January?

Does 224 D, 211 R sound about right?

Edit: Although that might be a smidge optimistic on my part.

Very unsure about CA-21 / CA-25 / UT-4

MN looks so much more red w/o Peterson

That's the thing when your party is mostly a urban / suburban party.

[Frenchrepublican]

AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R), AK-SEN for Dan Sullivan (R).

Results:
Trump +17.8
Sullivan +20.0
Young +16.3

Has Alaska completely finished counting its ballots? If so, these are disastrous results for the Democrats, who actually thought they could upset Sullivan and Young. It's a significant improvement for Young in particular, since he "only" beat Alyse Galvin by 6% in 2018. I'm assuming Young carried most of bush Alaska again, like he has done throughout his career.

Nah, there are still around 1/4 of the ballots which remain to be counted. In the end Biden will probably lose by around 9 points and Gross by around 11 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Minnesota looks beautiful, ^ also, why do you think Hart will win?

Yeah, that's a error, I guess that Miller Meeks is probably favoured but it's so tight that Hart could still win.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wasserman thinks Brindisi may actually be slightly favored:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327645312236871682

If that's true Tenney should be prohibited of running for any office again.

[Frenchrepublican]

So if Brindisi wins, would NY-22 be the most Republican-leaning district held by a Dem?

By far

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

A fair map gives him Syracuse anyway. Onondonga+Madison+Oneida is about 1 district in 2022.

Yeah but a such district would not be more D leaning than the current NY-24 so Kakto would be okay

[Frenchrepublican]

Source for Running House Tally

http://www.thegreenpapers.com

They have it at:

219 Democrats
205 Republicans
11 Race TBD (2 are Runoffs; GA-5 & LA-5)

The other 9 are as followed
California CD 21. Margin between top two vote getters: 1.4%, 2.2K votes.
California CD 25. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.031%, 104 votes.
Iowa CD 2. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.012%, 47 votes.
New York CD 1. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 2. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 3. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 18. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 19. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 22. Awaiting additional results.

They also have UT-4 has undecided.  The GA-5 is the Special Election for the remaining few weeks of Lewis's term, not the General Election race.

They do not have UT-4 as Undecided on their Frontpage and it isn't "undecided" from my Point of view. Owens has a 2,095 Vote-lead with only 3,000 Ballots left to count in Salt Lake County and also some in Utah County.

Republicans have flipped 12 Democratic-held House Seats:

https://twitter.com/RealKyleMorris/status/1327460473512611840

Barring a Vote Counting Error in IA-2 and a late Ballot Surge in CA-21 (both unlikely) we'll also pick up those two bringing it up to 14 Seats. We may lose CA-25 which would Result in a Net Gain of 13 Seats in the House.

My Final House Projection is 226-209.

You are forgetting the NY seats.