2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing I am curious about is all these big surveys like the CCES, nationscape etc showed all these obama trump voters unhappy with Trump and liking Biden, mainly non-college whites in the midwest yet there was no swing, in the driftless region there was no swing, Trump did better in many counties in north-eastern Iowa and south-western WI than the did in 2016.

So were all these surveys trash, 2 years of survey data about non-college whites who had voted Obama than Trump  but were disillusioned with Trump going back to Biden, all this data just seems fake now, none of it materialised.

There are some specific parts of the rural/small-town Midwest that swung R, but based on what we're seeing right now, most of Middle America did swing to Biden (and a good part of it even trended D). Of course, it's not the 6-8 points polls were showing, and that will have to be seriously examined, but let's not act like the swing didn't even exist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1328814379203227649

This is why I actually think these audits should be the norm in every state and every election. It's not about whether or not they change the ultimate winner (they don't) but ensuring a fully accurate count is important in and of itself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So before anybody panics, all this does is delays Michigan's state certification.

The county has to get certified. If the County Board won't do it, than the State Board and the Secretary of State does it.

If the GOP manages to deadlock the State Board too, does the SoS have the final word?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep, you got it exactly correct. Also, a position like the GSA Administrator should NOT be held by a partisan, political appointee. The GSA and the GSA Administrator should be non-politically appointed and non-partisan.

This is a perfect illustration of why the Unitary Executive Theory is so dangerous. Parts of the state bureaucracy must imperatively be insulated from the presidency to preserve the basic workings of democracy. I know conservative hypocrisy is nothing new, but it still baffles me that "small-government" conservatives are such fans of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/18/nyregion/absentee-ballot-counting.html

Article on how s****y NY is at counting votes. It's really eye-opening.

The Bush v. Gore debacle forced Florida to do a massive overhaul, and now their election administration is one of the best in the country. Hopefully New York takes heed for 2022 and beyond.

Mr. Gianaris’s bill would address that by amending state law to count only the first ballot cast by a voter, not the last. That would allow boards to begin processing, but not opening, absentee ballots before Election Day, as other states do. Under the bill, election officials could begin opening ballots three hours before polls close on election night.

Why the hell just 3 hours before? States like FL and NC start weeks in advance, and that makes sure they're ready to start counting mail ballots immediately as polls close. Hell, even Michigan gave it 24 hours. This is such a no-brainer, is there even an argument against it?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

So these are late mail in ballots and provisional? Surprising, but I guess it makes sense.

Yep, that's right.

I'm surprised the late mail-ins are skewing that GOP.

I mean, they aren't. Since Biden lost the state by 8 points or so, almost tying with the mail-ins does mean he's overperforming somewhat. Not as much as I'd expected/hoped though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

Friendly reminder that when the Bolivian right made the exact same claims about Morales' reelection, the NYT and other mainstream outlets took them at face value and enabled a coup against him. Just sayin'.

(Not whatabouting obviously. This is just as ludicrous and pathetic)

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107

The spike in Wisconsin is when the City of Milwaukee reported it's absentee votes,  the spike in Michigan is when Wayne County reported a big chunk of it's mail in votes.   Both states didn't allow early processing of mail ballots so they had to do everything on election day (signature validation, check lists, etc) so it took a lot longer in those heavily populated areas.

Also both the City of Milwaukee and Wayne County used a central processing area for mail in ballots so they were reported all in large dumps rather than gradually.

Friendly reminder that when the Bolivian right made the exact same claims about Morales' reelection, the NYT and other mainstream outlets took them at face value and enabled a coup against him. Just sayin'.

(Not whatabouting obviously. This is just as ludicrous and pathetic)

1. No, it was not “exactly the same.” Not even close. This election took place during a pandemic during which one side told its voters to vote by mail and the other didn’t. We knew going in exactly how this would go down.

2. I wasn’t aware The New York Times had the authority to “enable a coup.”

It was literally the exact same counting logic as you see in the tweet. MAS-supporting areas reported their results later, so the results got better for Morales as the night went on. Then the OAS alleged with no evidence that those late votes were fraudulent.

Anyway let's not derail this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seriously, what's wrong with New York? They haven't updated their numbers for quite a while.

They're incompetent at running an election, that's about all there is to it.

Cuomo should fire the whole BOE and do significant reforms, this is embarassing

Cuomo is part of the machine that benefits from NY elections being such a sh*tshow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is a bit disconcerting that they are throwing out a significant number of ballots in Dane county that were originally counted. It won't change the outcome, obviously, but it still makes me suspect that the GOP is being successful in challenging ballots and setting a bad precedent for future elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

done (including Erie results from Wasserman)

Standard:



Swings:

Thanks!!!

Beautiful map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's wrong with using the Atlas map with proper Atlas colors? The "official" color scheme is stupid anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:



swings:

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781359852127649852/unknown.png

swings:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781361217067024394/unknown.png

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

Do you plan on updating your Redrawn States Project to include the 2020 election, when all of the results have been certified? I'd be interested to see how Biden fared on your map.

Of course! It will probably be sometime next year though, given how long it takes for all these results to come out.

I think I can already eyeball what the map looks like, anyway. Biden has definitely won Adirondack. Clinton only lost it by 2 points, and it looks like the statewide swing will be around 4-5 points. Not sure if Biden flips any other redrawn state, though of course he does flip AZ and GA. Upper Peninsula votes might be just enough to sink him in Wisconsin. South Florida and Rio Grande also definitely swung GOP, though Biden still probably carries them. California was probably pretty stable, meaning Biden wins it by 2-3 points. All in all, that should probably add up to 315 EVs for Biden, with an off-chance of 297 or 325 (depending on SF and WI, probably the closest states).

I'll follow up on the 100 States project as well, which at this point I think is more interesting since it has a lot more detail.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any word on when NYC is gonna finish?

[Antonio the Sixth]

People who lean left really didn't mess around this election. Howie Hawkins only got .25%. That's the worst performance for the Green Party I've ever seen. Howie Hawkins doesn't even seem that bad, he's not a clown like Stein but still, rather impressive how united the left was this election.

That's true but there were some votes for Jorgensen and other third parties. Overall the third party vote is smaller this year because the bases were more supportive of their candidiates compared to 2016

Still higher third-party vote than 2012, 2008 and 2004. Kinda disappointing honestly, but I guess it makes sense.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

South Florida could very well be one. I think that one goes down to the wire. Clinton won it by 7, so with a 22-point swing in Miami-Dade and a 5-point swing in Broward you can see how things get very close. Democratic swings in the Tampa Bay area and the Southwestern coast might ease things a bit, but I still think that one is within 1 point either way.

Rio Grande and California are off-chances too, but I doubt it. Clinton won RG by 10, and the Democratic swings in the Austin-San Antonio area should seriously tamp down whatever happened near the river itself. California was only a 2-point win in 2016, but it most likely swung to Biden given that Kern, Fresno and Sacramento did (though it definitely trended R). So I'd say maybe one, maybe none.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

South Florida could very well be one. I think that one goes down to the wire. Clinton won it by 7, so with a 22-point swing in Miami-Dade and a 5-point swing in Broward you can see how things get very close. Democratic swings in the Tampa Bay area and the Southwestern coast might ease things a bit, but I still think that one is within 1 point either way.

Rio Grande and California are off-chances too, but I doubt it. Clinton won RG by 10, and the Democratic swings in the Austin-San Antonio area should seriously tamp down whatever happened near the river itself. California was only a 2-point win in 2016, but it most likely swung to Biden given that Kern, Fresno and Sacramento did (though it definitely trended R). So I'd say maybe one, maybe none.

I'm not familiar with the actual borders of your maps, but I can tell you that Biden outright won the Texas Triangle and adding the Rio Grande Valley moves it further to the left (although by less than it historically would.) If the state of Rio Grande drops Houston and Dallas, it should be a pretty comfortable Biden win.

As for Florida, Biden wins everything below the Alachua-Volusia Line, Trump wins if the state includes anything further north.

Rio Grande (2012 election):


South Florida (2000-2012 swing, funny how things change...):

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

Do we at least know how many votes will be added from the city? Knowing that, it should be fairly straightforward to make some inferences about the popular vote total.

https://twitter.com/boenyc/status/1326235826578214912?s=21

So that should mean NYC in total will have 2.95 to 3 million votes cast. In 2016, it was 2.74M and Clinton netted 1.67M (a 60.9-point margin). If NYC behaves similarly to other inner cities, Biden should net a similar margin or a slightly lower one - let's say 60 points out of 3 million to make this nice and round.

Assuming 2% third-party votes, that means Biden gets 2.37M and the other guy 570k. Currently, they stand at 1.64M and... 587k, so, huh, even my conservative assumptions were wrong. It seems NYC is already guaranteed to swing right and will probably do so by a significant amount. So let's revise those estimates to maybe 2.3M and 650K. That would mean Biden gains 660k votes from the NYC absentees and his rival 63K.

Applying that to the current Cook totals, that would put the national popular vote at 80.9M (51.26%) to 74M (46.9%), ie a popular vote margin of 4.36 points. It would also put NY State at 60.5% to 38.1%, a 22.4-point margin almost identical to the 2016 one. Of course, there are also more votes to come from a number of Upstate counties which also look very favorable for Democrats, so when all is said and done NY probably swung Democratic (but trended R unless there are a LOT of Upstate votes).

It also means that PA, NJ, AL, and possibly NC and ND were all Republican trends. NC would be a tough blow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Given the recounts cost the campaign 3 million, that's $34k per added Biden vote. What a generous gift!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good God, NYC sucks at elections.

Jason Ravnsborg(R)

lmao. Only the best people!

(tbf I'm sure there plenty of mega-HPs on Democratic slates too, just lower-profile ones.)

Eh, the ones on Democratic slates don't share the dubious distinction of being the first Atlas poster to kill someone (hopefully they don't share the distinction of having killed someone in general lmao).

...this guy was an Atlas poster?? Who?

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333168088007774224

Freedom Result!

[Antonio the Sixth]

So right now we are at

Biden 80.26 million (51.1%)
Trump 73.97 million (47.1%)

How much is still realistically out? NYC is still completely out in terms of mail ballots, so that is adding at least another ~750K right?

Are any other states still adding anything? It feels like CA still has a tiny bit out, while IL is right around 0% movement since 2016, which doesn't feel right - are they done counting too?

The NYC dump should go like 80-20 to Biden, right? Feels like he should be able to top 81 million with that batch.

If you look above I've already made the calculations for NYC.

Now, if someone has the number on how many votes remain in Westchester, Suffolk, Albany and Onondaga, I'd be happy to add those numbers in and see how much they move the needle.