2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326664520845103107

[GeorgiaModerate]

The website has updated with the new numbers from Pima and Yavapai Counties. Yavapai is done, while Pima estimates it still has about 10,000 left.

Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline has passed in most counties): 2927
Provisional ballots: 22292
Ballots ready for tabulation: 15260

Total: 40479

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 34557 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 4942 from them.  He currently trails by 12828, so would finish behind by 7886.

Of the estimated remaining 40K ballots, 22.5K are in Maricopa County.  They're doing a drop later tonight and then a supposedly final one tomorrow.  Based on present trends (without the Trump-friendly assumptions) I'm estimating the final margin will be about 15K for Biden.

Another way to look at this: if ALL of the remaining ~40K ballots were accepted (which is not realistic), Trump would need to win about 2/3 of them to overtake Biden.  Stick a fork in it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1326617386041155587

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326665741433647104

The estimated ballots left website just updated with the numbers from Pima and Yavapai.  I'll post an update in a couple minutes.

87% turnout in these rural counties and Trump still couldn’t win.  The GOP is in trouble.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1326617386041155587

So much whining.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes out of Allegheny now have Biden at 52K lead in PA per Fox News.

NYT is a few votes behind, but they have Trump dropping below 49%, now at 48.99%. Would love for Biden to still crack 50.

Also given the fact that the 10K received after Election Day won't have a real effect, I expect them to be ultimately counted in the end as well.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

Wow. Arguably the sanest Republican in Oklahoma, with the possible exception of the OKC mayor whom I've heard is reasonably not crazy

[wbrocks67]

Does NV still have a pretty big chunk out of Clark? Have they just stopped counting?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does NV still have a pretty big chunk out of Clark? Have they just stopped counting?

Yes, most of the NV votes outstanding are from Clark.  ISTR a post from Ralston that they're supposed to be mostly done by tomorrow, but won't swear to it.

[brucejoel99]

It makes complete sense, if you don't really think about it:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326679385966047236

[wbrocks67]

If Maricopa is a wash tonight, they need to call it. However, it appears after tonight there is only one more Maricopa update, so if not a call by tonight, then tomorrow night.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1326673143449198594

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

Wow. Arguably the sanest Republican in Oklahoma, with the possible exception of the OKC mayor whom I've heard is reasonably not crazy

Supposedly Stephanie Bice is relatively OK as in preferable to all of her primary opponents, although she'll probably have a generic R indistinguishable backbencher voting record.

[Alben Barkley]

It seems like the Selzer poll and the Military Times poll -- two of the polls people expressed the most skepticism about (including myself admittedly for the Selzer poll) -- were among the most accurate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It seems like the Selzer poll and the Military Times poll -- two of the polls people expressed the most skepticism about (including myself admittedly for the Selzer poll) -- were among the most accurate.

Same with me when it comes to the Selzer poll. However, I was still right that it didn't suggest as much as people thought when it came to Minnesota. That's the part I took the biggest issue with.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326665741433647104

The estimated ballots left website just updated with the numbers from Pima and Yavapai.  I'll post an update in a couple minutes.

87% turnout in these rural counties and Trump still couldn’t win.  The GOP is in trouble.

Yep... this should not get lost in all of this. Trump brought out insane GOP turnout and he... still lost to Biden by 5-7 million votes. The GOP can't rely on that record turnout again, since (unfortunately) it seems all Trump.

Which is why we're seeing house results the way they are. All of those Trump voters that he brought out probably voted straight ticket. While it's possible that many of the low propensity new voters that Biden turned out voted for him, but R downballot... which overcame all of the 2018 voters who came back out

[emailking]

Yep... this should not get lost in all of this. Trump brought out insane GOP turnout and he... still lost to Biden by 5-7 million votes. The GOP can't rely on that record turnout again, since (unfortunately) it seems all Trump.

Dems can't necessarily rely on their turnout either. It was stoked by Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1326684667915939840

[GeorgiaModerate]

Really good thread on the upcoming Georgia recount from a local reporter.  Click to read the whole thing.

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1326619284324442112

[jimrtex]

I'm starting to think our fears of post-election violence were overblown.

(Not saying there won't be small pockets of unrest, but so far, thousands of Trump supporters haven't taken to the streets.)

*fingers crossed*

There were 600 arrested in Minneapolis.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep... this should not get lost in all of this. Trump brought out insane GOP turnout and he... still lost to Biden by 5-7 million votes. The GOP can't rely on that record turnout again, since (unfortunately) it seems all Trump.

Dems can't necessarily rely on their turnout either. It was stoked by Trump.

This is one of many reasons why the future of our politics without Trump looks so interesting yet also so uncertain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

I met him at Will Rogers Airport last year. He’s not bad.

Got to love how Oklahoma named their airport after a guy who died in a plane crash.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/rtmradio/status/1326660188968022016

I met him at Will Rogers Airport last year. He’s not bad.

Got to love how Oklahoma named their airport after a guy who died in a plane crash.

Technically, the Denver International Airport is too.

[FrancoAgo]

Good evening,
there are count update scheduled this evening?

[Mike88]

Good evening,
there are count update scheduled this evening?

Maricopa is expected to update their count in an 1 hour or so.