2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BaldEagle1991]

This is just getting sad

https://mobile.twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1326298952774381575

First they're denying science and now they're denying math...

[wbrocks67]

Something that should be noted about PA, too, that likely helped Dems take the statewide races in 2016, was the straight ticket option. After 2016, that was taken away, which explains (a portion) of the underperformance of some candidates, especially given the Lib/GRN parties getting more votes, quite a bit, in some of the statewide races.

[wbrocks67]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

[MillennialModerate]

I did the VA breakdown by metro area:

                         Trump      Biden            Total        Biden%    D Margin
NOVA                  382,025    903,227    1,285,252  70.3%     521,202
Richmond Metro   243,170    364,708      607,878   60.0%     121,538
Hampton Roads   315,426     457,306      772,732   59.2%     141,880
Total Metro          940,621    1,725,241  2,665,862  64.7%     784,620
Rest of VA           1,021,664    687,687  1,709,351  40.2%     (333,978)
Total VA              1,962,285  2,412,928  4,375,213 55.1%      450,643

Biden ran up a 521K margin in NoVA (not all votes have been counted yet so this will expand), and netted another 263K votes from the Richmond metro and Hampton Roads. The combined 785k margin across metro VA easily offset Trumps 334k margin in the rest of the state.

It’s insane how quickly WVA went from Likely Dem to Tossup (2000) to Likely R (2008) to Safe R (2016) to Titanium R (2020). And at the same time Virginia went from Safe R (1996) to Likely R (2004) to Tossup (2008) to Likely D (2012) to Safe D (2020)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1326880122272616448

[Kalimantan]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

94k provisionals and only from 20k from Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawanna/Monroe/Lehigh?

That just doesn't seem likely at all. Over 50% of the total state vote has come from those counties (~3.5m)

[wbrocks67]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

94k provisionals and only from 20k from Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawanna/Monroe/Lehigh?

That just doesn't seem likely at all. Over 50% of the total state vote has come from those counties (~3.5m)

I'm sorry if I was not clear - I meant there are 20K in right now and they are NOT from those areas. i.e, the remaining 75K (if they are all counted) come from those areas - Allegheny/Erie/SEPA/Philly/Lackawanna etc

[wbrocks67]

It would also help if counties were more transparent with the remaining votes.

Montgomery County has a sizeable batch of mail-ins left (about 4,000) but those have been sitting at the same # since they finished counting at the end of last week. No idea if these are regular mail-ins that needed to be cured or not, or also include provisionals. They do not include Overseas/Military, however.

[Kalimantan]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

94k provisionals and only from 20k from Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawanna/Monroe/Lehigh?

That just doesn't seem likely at all. Over 50% of the total state vote has come from those counties (~3.5m)

I'm sorry if I was not clear - I meant there are 20K in right now and they are NOT from those areas. i.e, the remaining 75K (if they are all counted) come from those areas - Allegheny/Erie/SEPA/Philly/Lackawanna etc

Ah

[Beet]

Atlas citation alert

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1326905094663712768

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1326880122272616448

Weird times that Republican politicians are asked to state the perfectly obvious.

[Sir Mohamed]

Another morning, another day I wake up with AZ not called. Despite being very close, it seems like Fox News is vindicated for this. Why not calling it and put more pressure on Trump?

[Tender Branson]

I think the NH results, except for write-in votes, are also official (but I’m not completely sure):

https://sos.nh.gov/elections/elections/election-results/2020/general-election/

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Another morning, another day I wake up with AZ not called. Despite being very close, it seems like Fox News is vindicated for this. Why not calling it and put more pressure on Trump?

Trump won't drop these silly lawsuits until the EC meets and declares Biden the victor. It doesn't matter what the media says. After all, "the media does not declare the winner."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another morning, another day I wake up with AZ not called. Despite being very close, it seems like Fox News is vindicated for this. Why not calling it and put more pressure on Trump?

Trump won't drop these silly lawsuits until the EC meets and declares Biden the victor. It doesn't matter what the media says. After all, "the media does not declare the winner."

As soon as Biden is elected by the EC, Trump will probably call on Twitter for the EC to be abolished, because it doesn't reflect the will of the people.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's lead grows to 5.3 million. This is still without nearly 2 million New York absentees out (and many others)

Joe Biden 77,739,744 (50.8%)
Donald Trump 72,448,094 (47.4%)

[Tender Branson]

Unknown dates

Hawaii
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Tennessee

Hawaii:

Results for the 2020 General Election will be certified following the Election Objection Deadline on November 23, 2020.

[MillennialModerate]

What will the final margin be for popular vote in percentage and total votes

[wbrocks67]

What will the final margin be for popular vote in percentage and total votes

It still looks like there is a decent chunk of D votes out in MD and OH, and NY too. CA looks to be about the same margin for the rest of the votes. IL also appears to have a decent chunk out too, so Biden should seemingly cross 7 million+ PV lead I think, while maybe getting 51.5-52.0% of the overall vote?

New York alone should probably net him at least nearly a million votes I think, if they break like 1.3mil-400k. And that may be conservative.

[KaiserDave]

I think NY is going to net Biden one million more. Perhaps more.

[Tender Branson]

What will the final margin be for popular vote in percentage and total votes

51.6%
46.6%
  1.8% Others/Write-in

Turnout: 160 million

Biden’s final margin could be around 8 million votes, or 5%, and he’ll end up well over 80 million.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

[wbrocks67]

What will the final margin be for popular vote in percentage and total votes

51.6%
46.6%
  1.8% Others/Write-in

Turnout: 160 million

Biden’s final margin could be around 8 million votes and he’ll end up well over 80 million.

Interesting that Biden will likely end up close to the middle of Obama 2012 (3.9%) and Obama 2008 (7.2%)

[wbrocks67]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

This is what keeps me sane - while Trump ultimately got way more votes than 2016 too, the fact that with record breaking turnout, Biden will still ultimately be about 7-8 million and ~5% ahead of Trump, an incumbent, which is hard to do - means this really was a repudiation of Trumpism any way you slice it.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

This is what keeps me sane - while Trump ultimately got way more votes than 2016 too, the fact that with record breaking turnout, Biden will still ultimately be about 7-8 million and ~5% ahead of Trump, an incumbent, which is hard to do - means this really was a repudiation of Trumpism any way you slice it.

What keeps me hopeful is the idea that the Dem gains are more permanent than the Rep gains.  We dramatically expanded our outreach this year with registration, fundraising and volunteerism.  That feels more permanent than Trump's magical ability to get Facebook voters to the polls.  We already saw in 2018 that those people don't show up when Trump isn't on the ballot.  If Trump and the GOP have a schism, they won't turn up in 2022 either, while the Dems can maintain the organizational edge they built this cycle.