2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

So what's the primary driver behind media not calling the race?

Political reasons? Trying to navigate coverage around a hostile incumbent?

Media reasons? Ratings? Timing?

Genuine uncertainty about the result? What? They're not sure Biden has won yet? "Come on, man!" They think Trump can still win this?

[Bacon King]

Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Pretty sure isn’t kosher either.

Yeah, as if the FEC would care if I transfer 20€ to the US and some US citizen then donates (in his/her name !) to the GA campaigns ...

...

Yes. The FEC cares about illegal campaign contributions. That's literally their job.

I’m not familiar with campaign finance laws in the US.

Is there a section somewhere that explicitly bans foreigners to transfer small amounts of money to a US citizen, who then donates it to a campaign ?

As long as it’s not large sums or a concentrated large amount of foreigners doing so, it could be ok.

For example, there could be a US exchange student in Austria who’s a fan of the Warnock campaign and I’d like to contribute because the student is a friend of mine.

I give the friend 20€ and back in the US he donates it.

yes.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

Great! Now try Dacula, Dahlonega, Lithonia, and Martinez. 

don't forget Taliaferro!

Grrrrrrr that county is hateful. It should be f!cking tah-lyah-FEH-rroh in Italian and instead it gets pronounced like "Tolliver". Damn it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So when will this thing be called?

[Kuumo]

Also giving pronunciation lessons: DeKalb (second syllable like taxi cab) County; House-ton County; Al-Bane-y.

I found out from watching CNN that DeKalb and Gwinnett are actually pronounced duh-KAB and gwin-ETT, not duh-KAHLB and GWIN-it. Good thing no one on Atlas could hear me mentally mispronouncing DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Albany counties! I already knew about House-ton from someone on Atlas though.

So many counties I've learned to pronounce this election!

I can contribute a couple from my neck of the woods:

Pend Oreille = pawn doe-RAY
Okanogan = oke-uh-NAWG-in
Spokane = spow-CAN

In my former home states of Idaho and Texas,

Kootenai = KOO-teh-nee
Bexar = BEAR or bay-HAR.

[charcuterie]

So when will this thing be called?

[Dr. Arch]

So when will this thing be called?

I imagine that, once Biden nets another 10-20k in PA, then the networks will feel comfortable in calling PA and the election.

DDHQ has already called the election.

Nevada might be called later on today, and Arizona, probably tomorrow.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So when will this thing be called?

Nobody knows.  It's all up to the states and networks at this point. 

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324769516153409536?s=21
YUP.

What the HELL are the networks waiting on?

I suspect they're waiting for the evening to get more views. They shouldn't be,  though.

The 2016 race was called in the wee hours of the morning, so I don't think that's it.

I suspect that from their perspective,  that was a continuation of election night,  and that this is different because it's 3 days later.

[Hammy]

So when will this thing be called?

I don't think they'll call it before the electoral votes are cast. Media's going to milk this as much as they can because Trump and this election in general have been a ratings boon.

[Crumpets]

Nick Corasaniti: Important amid lawsuits in Pa.: Ballots arriving after Election Day are segregated. They are then processed and counted separately, and, for now, not added to the current totals.

[wbrocks67]

Someone tell me why PA is so close when it was supposed to be a comfortable Biden win...

 Because we're still waiting on a ton of f**king ballets. Oh my f**king god. You are insufferable.

[DaleCooper]

Clearly they're not comfortable calling anything until Biden's lead is big enough that Trump can't win even if he gets 100% of the remaining votes.

It feels like the "Here's how Bernie can still win . . ." takes except all the networks are pushing it.

[Rand]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Phil Mattingly.
I actually think he's quite good.

I'm sure he is.

Settle down.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm starting to be torn between "CALL IT ALREADY" and "I want the networks to do Trump slowly", tbh. Although for the sake of the country I'm still leaning towards the former.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Phil Mattingly.
I actually think he's quite good.

I'm sure he is.

Settle down.

Shhh...

[Beet]

Trump only needs 54% according to Phil Mattingly and he's been getting at least 59% in the last three dumps. His overall averge is about 58%. He's on track in AZ.

In Georgia the military ballots if they go heavily to him can easily overcome the margin of 1,600.

It all comes down to PA and what Kornacki was saying about the 100,000 provisionals continuing to be heavily Republican, as they have so far. If they are, Trump can pull it out.

The Democrats celebrated too early.

[Baki]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1324810864562630656
This is a red county. By my napkin math, I don't believe Trump won this by enough to close the gap meaningfully.

The guy on CNN not named John King seems to think Trump needs to win the remaining vote by 54% to take the lead, but I think his math is wrong.

Phil Mattingly.
I actually think he's quite good.

I'm sure he is.

Settle down.

No.

[emailking]

To clarify, I believe employees of a firm that is a federal contractor can contribute. But if say, the individual had a contract with the government himself or herself, they could not.

[HillGoose]

Clearly they're not comfortable calling anything until Biden's lead is big enough that Trump can't win even if he gets 100% of the remaining votes.

It feels like the "Here's how Bernie can still win . . ." takes except all the networks are pushing it.

Big media has always been bias towards trump

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1324769516153409536?s=21

YUP.

What the HELL are the networks waiting on?

IIRC, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is a subsidiary of ABC News. Maybe he should pick up the phone and give his bosses a call.

[wbrocks67]

Trump only needs 54% according to Phil Mattingly and he's been getting at least 59% in the last three dumps. His overall averge is about 58%. He's on track in AZ.

In Georgia the military ballots if they go heavily to him can easily overcome the margin of 1,600.

It all comes down to PA and what Kornacki was saying about the 100,000 provisionals continuing to be heavily Republican, as they have so far. If they are, Trump can pull it out.

The Democrats celebrated too early.

He's wrong. Trump needed 57-59% *before* the batches today, and those have been worse for him. Maricopa was only 53% and Pinal was not good enough either.

[Hammy]

Trump only needs 54% according to Phil Mattingly and he's been getting at least 59% in the last three dumps. His overall averge is about 58%. He's on track in AZ.

In Georgia the military ballots if they go heavily to him can easily overcome the margin of 1,600.

It all comes down to PA and what Kornacki was saying about the 100,000 provisionals continuing to be heavily Republican, as they have so far. If they are, Trump can pull it out.

The Democrats celebrated too early.

Your entire post ignores reality.

Most of the remaining Arizona ballots are from Maricopa County--he's not going to win a majority of those

Georgia's military ballots--as several have pointed out, are largely black, so at the most it'll be a tie

Most provisional ballots don't get counted (and may very well be Republicans attempting to vote twice) and stop listening to random idiots on twitter who think they're special because they have a blue checkmark.

While I agree Dems are celebrating too early (more because I don't trust the courts) your post reeks of Trumpian desperation--just admit you support Trump and want him to win and get it over with

[GALeftist]

Looking through the county level swings from NYT. A couple areas stand out (Latinos4Trump, Mormons coming home, trendz in southern Midwest and non-deep south, Blue Wall reforming, angry New England women, D.C. hates orange man)

Geez, though, the bottom really fell out in Colorado and the Atlanta metro for the GOP; I think it's safe to say that Colorado is blue for the foreseeable future, and the Republicans are clearly in freefall in Georgia. Well done, Stacey Abrams; really hope ATL isn't maxed out for Democrats quite yet. This should also be setting off alarm bells for the GOP, because if something like this were to happen in North Carolina the state is instantly light blue, although I'm not sure if the Democrats have as much room to grow there.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

How did Nevada go from having 100,001 votes left to 140,001 votes in a couple of hours?