2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[sguberman]

I just checked and Starr County Texas's 55 point swing to Trump was the biggest swing to a party in a county since Tyler County WV in 2000 compared to 1996.

[Holmes]

Just really annoyed by the “I almost lost and I blame everyone but me!” Girl... aren’t you an adult?

[CookieDamage]

When will PA give an update?

Nytimes is reporting they could finish tonight. But at the rate it’s been going, it’ll be sometime in the next two weeks.

Doubt it'll take that long.

[Hope For A New Era]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Yeah. Hawley might do well in a Republican primary, but a certain amount of Trump's success did come from the fact that he was already a household name, and that name was synonymous (whether rightfully or not) with opulence, glamor, and fame.

He will flop, Kamala-in-2019 style.

[Alben Barkley]

Arizona kinda reminds me of 1992 Georgia. They called GA for Clinton almost instantly and were right even though it ended up being one of the closest states of the election.

[MplsDem]

85-90k ballots left in Philadelphia, per CNN.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

If you want to talk about crappy results, talk about how much Omar is lagging Biden in her district. Spanberger is doing comparatively much better. Her district is just so much closer to start with (but she's winning it anyway.)

[Kalimantan]

This whole thread is just incredible...

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1324445099430940673?s=20

DMP was in tears during the call.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1324445867663908870?s=20

I'm not sure about generally blaming the "liberal wing" of the party, but you have to admit their branding is God-awful. Progressives talk about how popular their ideas are, but progressives are often the ones that come up with these awful catchphrases. "Defund the police" is a guaranteed vote-loser, even if police reform is popular. Calling themselves "Democratic socialists" is a vote-loser, even if progressivism can be popular. I don't even understand that one, seeing as how they are social democrats at their leftmost.

Conservatives know how to dress up an unpopular idea and make it sound good. For some reason, Liberals and Leftists seem to want to take popular ideas and make them sound bad.

I heard Trump, GOP saying the Dems want to 'defund the police' a lot, can't say I recall an elected dem saying it. It was a phrase used to beat them with and they struggled to get that messaging back.

Is not why the Dems did less well than 2018 though. The 2018 wave was on the back of a protest vote against Trump. In 2020 people could protest Trump by voting against him directly, so down ballot they could be kinder to the GOP.

Anyway there is a saying, all politics is local. In tough seats you've got to get the faith of your electorate.

[It’s so Joever]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Also Harley is a transparent douche bag with an unbelievably easy to attack record

Hey, don’t insult Harley Rouda like that!

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know what's happening in Georgia?  The margin hasn't tightened much but now it looks like a lot of blue counties have fully reported?  Doesn't seem right on NYT.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Rubio/Hawley would be a pretty good ticket for the GOP in 2024

[lfromnj]

Btw that Detroit post showing Trump only getting 12.7k votes in Detroit was actually nearly a double of what he got in 2016.(7.5k)

 Does anyone know how much Biden got? He probably netted more votes although Detroit did have to swing R.

James actually got 9k votes in Detroit in 2018, so it seems both James did have appeal to black voters in 2018 compared to Trump 2016 but in 2020 they did the same .

[pppolitics]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Yeah. Hawley might do well in a Republican primary, but a certain amount of Trump's success did come from the fact that he was already a household name, and that name was synonymous (whether rightfully or not) with opulence, glamor, and fame.

He will flop, Kamala-in-2019 style.

It always amuses me how Hawley is constantly vetted by national people but Missourians’ reactions range from decidedly meh to embarrassment about the man.

[American2020]

Philadephia: 85,000-90,000 left

[Hindsight was 2020]

2024 pls!!!!
https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1324448622658965505?s=20

he sounds like a sore loser. Anyway does anyone think Hawley can reach trump's appeal? or is trump a unique character in reaching out to the working class voters. Im not sure if other republicans can replicate trump's success but im not sure

Also Harley is a transparent douche bag with an unbelievably easy to attack record

Hey, don’t insult Harley Rouda like that!

Lol thanks for catching that. Damn autocorrect

[Dr. Arch]

Some votes came in for PA. Trump is now under 98K ahead. Delaware County still missing over 15% of its votes.

[Crucial Waukesha]

Even though the trends are good, Pennsylvania will still give me heartburn until Biden is much closer than 100,000 votes

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So there's about 550,000 left in Pennsylvania which should seal the deal for Biden if they continue to favour him by the huge margins they have so far. Just one snag though:

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1324423231210721282

If Biden wins 80% of the remaining urban and suburban votes he'll be statistically tied (by my estimate down by just under 10k votes), but it appears the vast remainder of those votes are in rural counties. If the count estimates are right then these include Greene County (79% reporting, currently 80% for Trump, went 68% for Trump in 2016), Tioga County (79% reporting, 81% for Trump, 74% Trump in 2016) and Crawford County (72% reporting, 79% for Trump, 66% Trump in 2016).

So if Biden gets it close and the rural late counts go like Erie did (1-3/1-4 margins for Biden) then Biden has it in the bag. The only snag is that Erie was extremely narrow in both elections, whereas most of these counties went massively for Trump even in 2016. If Biden can at least tie or win on the back of his mail in overperformance then he's safe, but if they come in any worse than 50-50 then Trump could actually narrowly win Pennsylvania. It all comes down to whether mail/late votes in heavily red counties went for Biden or not, again assuming the tweet's numbers are accurate.

[Badger]

GA - Biden down by 12,764 (98% counted)

Of the remaining ~100,512 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 56,638 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 108,367 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~560,502 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 334,500 of them - (59.7%)

That "needs to win" percentage looks like it's dropping a good amount from yesterday.

That's because Biden's been running ahead of his needed pace consistently.  The more he does that, the lower the threshold goes for the remaining votes.

It's almost like the more votes Biden gets, the better he does.

[riceowl]

Philadephia: 85,000-90,000 left

I really don't understand these numbers with what is being uploaded to, say the NYT results. Or is that everyone's confusion. Are they just not loading results but saying that they've counted them?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324456564183453698

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, I don't think it's too much to ask house Democrats to blacklist the words "socialism", "defund", and "abolish." It isn't helping anyone.

[forsythvoter]

We pretty know the exact count of what's out in GA. It's about 50K ballots, with Fulton, Chatham, Clayton, Gwinnett and Forsyth making up the bulk of the ballots. Biden needs 65%.

The percentages he's getting right now with the absentee ballots that have already been counted:
Chatham (75%)
Clayton (85%)
Gwinnett (67%)
Forsyth (52%)
Fulton (80%)

Does anyone know what's happening in Georgia?  The margin hasn't tightened much but now it looks like a lot of blue counties have fully reported?  Doesn't seem right on NYT.

[Bojack Horseman]

Arizona kinda reminds me of 1992 Georgia. They called GA for Clinton almost instantly and were right even though it ended up being one of the closest states of the election.

Wasn’t that back when they used a few “key precincts” to call the race as soon as the polls closed and ended up being wrong fairly often?