2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1323664834706186240?s=21

Reaganite Texas will stay Republican

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Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

[OSR stands with Israel]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

Bush wasn’t that toxic yet though and nowhere near as toxic as Trump is now so I wouldn’t make the comparison

Yah I know, just saying increased turnout goes against the incumbent isnt really true

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Imagine this forum if existed in 1992, with Clinton losing Florida to Bush...

Bush Sr won FL by 23 points in 1988 so FL being so close would be a shock then

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Question when will we get the outstanding results in GA

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https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1323896983313018880?s=21

Is this true

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How is the counting bias in CA this year: Can we still win CA-21, CA-25, CA-39 and CA-48

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When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

Has to be back in the 19th century I think.

Didnt Republicans win the Senate in 1914

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When was the last time there was Democratic President, Republican Senate and Democratic House?

Has to be back in the 19th century I think.

Didnt Republicans win the Senate in 1914

I don't think they're talking about midterms.

Well if that is the case you would have had a Dem President GOP Senate and Dem House from 1915-1917

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This election in many ways feels very similar to KY 2019, where despite Trump and Bevin going down the GOP seemingly did pretty well across the board.

Also it seems like McConnell is treating Trump now the same way the KY GOP Legislature treated Bevin after his defeat

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This election in many ways feels very similar to KY 2019, where despite Trump and Bevin going down the GOP seemingly did pretty well across the board.

Also it seems like McConnell is treating Trump now the same way the KY GOP Legislature treated Bevin after his defeat

Can you explain, not familiar with what happened afterwards when Bevin lost.

Bevin wanted to challenge the results and the GOP legislature I believe said no

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ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

[OSR stands with Israel]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

This was Bush 04 right?

Yup

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I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

WI/MI/PA are still going to be completely winnable for Democrats going forward. Not only that, we need these states for their Senate seats in addition to electoral paths. It would be dumb for Democrats to look past them when... they literally just won them (minus PA at this hour)

I said "the path to victory", that is, the path to 270 EV.

I didn't say that Democrats are not going to try to win them, but that they won't be needed for 270 EV.

The more options the better.


Dems really need to try to get TX to vote to the left of the nation, or at least even with the nation, since that would do a great deal of harm to the Rs edge in the EC

If Biden wins by 4ish that means Texas will have still voted 10 points to the right of the nation which doesn't mark much of a trend from 2016 and now they have the White House where trends favoring you tend to slow down(Look at Virginia from 2008 to 2015)

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I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

John Kerry did not do well in Miami-Dade, he won it by 6.2 Points while Biden won it by 7.3. Bush also won FL by more than 5 points

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Rubio/Hawley would be a pretty good ticket for the GOP in 2024

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Trump will win imo.

Can you briefly stop posting or something? It is really annoying. Saying Trump is going to win 10 times in slightly different forms gets tedious.

Trump will win GA AZ. SC rules on PA.

Funny thing, when CA and NY are finally all in, Biden will have a larger share of the vote then Reagan in 80.
And that was allegedly a mandate that hasn’t ended 40 years later.

Biden didn’t win the PV by 10 points

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump will win imo.

Can you briefly stop posting or something? It is really annoying. Saying Trump is going to win 10 times in slightly different forms gets tedious.

Trump will win GA AZ. SC rules on PA.

Funny thing, when CA and NY are finally all in, Biden will have a larger share of the vote then Reagan in 80.
And that was allegedly a mandate that hasn’t ended 40 years later.

Biden didn’t win the PV by 10 points

He only had that margin because Anderson took votes that mostly likely would have gone to Carter otherwise.

Reagan without Anderson probably wins 53.5-45.5

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump will win imo.

Can you briefly stop posting or something? It is really annoying. Saying Trump is going to win 10 times in slightly different forms gets tedious.

Trump will win GA AZ. SC rules on PA.

Funny thing, when CA and NY are finally all in, Biden will have a larger share of the vote then Reagan in 80.
And that was allegedly a mandate that hasn’t ended 40 years later.

Biden didn’t win the PV by 10 points

And Reagan barely broke 50% of the PV.

And won 489 EV , and republicans gained 12 senate seats

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Trump needs to accept that he has most likely lost and when the numbers likely show that he has he needs to concede so we can have an orderly transition.

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Fox Should Fire Tucker if these comments are true

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Which presidential term will Biden's be most like?

FDR 1933?

Truman 1949?

LBJ 1965?

Carter 1977?

HW 1989?

Clinton 1993?

Bush 2001?

Obama 2009?

Either Clinton or Carter

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So this election will have the highest turnout since 1896.

You know, when a populist appealed strongly to the rural WWC and drove up their turnout, only to lose by 4.5 points anyway to a pretty likable mainstream candidate because “elites” in the midwest and Northeast opposed him even more strongly for the same reasons he fired up his supporters.

WJB was arguably a socialist

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325112042056015872

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And Trump is consider Alpha lol


Hes the biggest snowflake ever to be elected