2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kkondik/status/1323654696964378624

[Hindsight was 2020]

The frustrating thing is that it was clearly explained since EV that the key to winning Florida is to keep the electorate under R+4 by getting higher Dem turnout then 2016 which is what seems to be happening. It’s gonna be close as always but nothing so far really points away from a Biden +2 victory which is what the average is

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

Sumter was 56 R, 24 D in 2016. How do you get "10% worse" from that?

https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelmufasa/status/1323661205966344198

[Hindsight was 2020]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Key context fwi

[Hindsight was 2020]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

If NPA break for Biden like they are expected/been polled as doing then yes Biden is on pace for a 1-2% win

[Hindsight was 2020]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

Trump won FL by 1% with a R+6 advantage and Scott/DeSantis won with under 1% with a R+4 advantage. We are at almost two a clock with high GOP turnout this morning and no major dem areas reporting yet and the R advantage is +1.35. Do the math

[Hindsight was 2020]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

Bush wasn’t that toxic yet though and nowhere near as toxic as Trump is now so I wouldn’t make the comparison

[Hindsight was 2020]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

No one knows for sure, and we won't until we actually see the results. This whole thread is just speculation, at this point.

I still remember the gold standard Atlas opinion well into election day 2016 was that there were record breaking lines in Philadelphia and Trump was going to get crushed. It's definitely easy to read way too much into early numbers and speculation.

At risk of breaking that, though, I think there's one factor in Florida I think people are missing regarding independents: while the early voting independents definitely leaned Biden, by most indications the election day independents will favour Trump. The math around how big a lead Republicans need to overcome the EV Indie lead Biden built up will change pretty drastically if there's significant turnout among independents today.

Based on what?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Miami Dade results coming in

https://twitter.com/DeFede/status/1323704995464781824

😬

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323730630966829056

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323732513852981256

Keep it up baby!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also can we put some perspective on how lopsided ED was supposed to be for Trump? The fact that Dems are having such heat ED turnout is probably the most ominous sign for Trump

[Hindsight was 2020]

We literally had a two hour build up to why the early exist polls (which are notorious to start with) would suck extra hard this year and still people freak out 🙄

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ignore the exit polls people even when they are good for Biden. It’s gonna be extra junky this year

[Hindsight was 2020]

GOP Florida turnout advantage appears to be under 200k again.

I don’t know how you can look at that and not think Biden is going to wrap this up by midnight

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some votes in rural Indiana is coming.

In Greene County its 72-26 for Trump now (in 2016 it was 74-21)

OVERPERFORMANCE!!!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Thankfully Florida is the only one that was having red flags in the buildup so unlike last time this shouldn’t be an ominous sign

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s one state people! And it’s the only state people were concerned about

[Hindsight was 2020]

People can we all take a break till like 10? When Wis/Mi/Penn start coming in?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Didnt everyone freak out like this halfway through the midterms

Pretty much

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323803171257540610
This feels more 2018 then 16 were we let Florida bum everyone out but as the night goes on...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Michigan exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-president-results

Biden 54%
Trump 46%

Minnesota exit poll toplines (from averaging men and women):

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/minnesota-president-results

Biden 54%
Trump 44%

I don’t see Trump over performing margins like that

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1323810734795563010
What did I say?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Honestly... this is going the right way so far...

Eh Florida should of been better but you are right that Biden still looks on pace