2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

In fact:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324089286384373761

[wbrocks67]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

[Crumpets]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

He's overtaken her since I posted, at least by the NYT count. He was up a clean 2 points when I posted.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/someknew/status/1324075488420061190?s=21

[GeneralMacArthur]

Michigan looking safe for Biden, which leaves three paths to the presidency:

AZ+NV

or

GA+NV

or

PA

(just GA would be a cursed 269-269 tie)

The PA path has been looking pretty strong thus far, Biden needed to win these early returns 3-1 or so and he's been winning them 5-1 or 6-1.

AZ+NV really just depends on who you believe.  We're getting totally conflicting reports out of Arizona.  Most folks seem to think Nevada is going to end up going for Biden.

Next big news out of Georgia is 6 PM EST, and out of Arizona is 9 PM EST.  Biden doesn't need GA or AZ, but we'd all sure feel a heck of a lot more comfortable if he gets some good news.

[politics_king]

If Trump loses, how does the lame duck session end up? What will Trump do?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Trump loses, how does the lame duck session end up? What will Trump do?

Sell off the White House furniture.

[sguberman]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

Didn't it also takes week for Clinton to get those numbers?

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

In fact:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324089286384373761

[dunceDude]

Great summary and post, kudos.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes.  

Yeah it's a 6000 vote swing.  So Peters is up 3K, although from what I've heard the remaining vote is still D-favorable.

Hopefully Antrim is the only county with that issue.

[Alcibiades]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes.  

Antrim correction will only change margin by +6k for James, so Peters looks to be safe.

[politics_king]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

Once we have 100% of the votes counted in the country, Biden should have a 4 to 5 million vote lead in the Popular Vote.

[wbrocks67]

Even with latest drop from Wayne, still only at 85%. Still have more votes to go there.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nolan_Mc/status/1324092527734149122

[wbrocks67]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

NYT reporting that Wayne still has 15% out. And Kalamazoo 20%.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Great summary and post, kudos.

YW, we gotta keep our heads on straight here.  Stick with hard numbers and provable stuff.  Don't overreact to trolling and misinformation from the Trump campaign, but I'm also not buying anything from mainstream pundits or journalists unless they've got hard numbers to back them up.  The last 16 hours has just been an exhausting flurry of "M votes remaining in X county, with N% expected to go for Biden; P% are mail-in and Q% are early-vote" and such reports have frequently been wrong.

[ultraviolet]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

NYT reporting that Wayne still has 15% out. And Kalamazoo 20%.

Yeah the Michigan margins are only widening from here

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jdcapelouto/status/1324090574710996992

[Fargobison]

If Trump loses, how does the lame duck session end up? What will Trump do?

Whine on twitter, rail against anyone in the GOP that crosses him and maybe hold a few pity party rallies for his ego. So per the usual nothing of substance will get done.

[Crumpets]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

At least looking at the NYT map now, Antrim is back to showing zero votes. So Republicans can still get a net ~3,000 over the NYT numbers, but not the full 6,000.

[wbrocks67]

The mail in ballots in PA are very fluid. Counties are still processing new ballots each day - Montco 503K received this morning - now it's 508K. Now they are back up 50K ballots still to count.

https://electionresults-montcopa.hub.arcgis.com/

[ultraviolet]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

Bear in mind that for Peters, the NYT is still including those almost-certainly wrong numbers in Antrim County.  This could swing things by a few thousand votes (though I hesitantly expect Peters to win here by the slimmest of margins). 

At least looking at the NYT map now, Antrim is back to showing zero votes. So Republicans can still get a net ~3,000 over the NYT numbers, but not the full 6,000.

It’s at zero votes for Pres, but for senate it still has Peters up 3k

[Illiniwek]

To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

It’s not the ideal scenario, but it’s a lot better than what we’ve had the past four years.