2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a sense of whether the outstanding vote numbers in North Carolina are correct (at least as reported by NYT)?  If they are, it really does look to me like Biden still has a chance there.

Edit: Back of the envelope math, Biden would need to win about 65% of the remaining vote.  But it looks like the remaining vote is overwhelmingly in Democratic counties.

[Canis]

Stay safe everyone

[wbrocks67]

Another 23K drop in Philly. Was Biden 20K, Trump 3K (86-14)

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone have a sense of whether the outstanding vote numbers in North Carolina are correct (at least as reported by NYT)?  If they are, it really does look to me like Biden still has a chance there.

I think there's only 117K requested absentees total that are still out statewide and could potentially be mailed back with an 11/3 postmark.  If that is true, Trump's lead is almost completely safe.

The R challenger is leading the D incumbent for Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court by just 4K statewide right now, so that will likely flip with the late absentees.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324075434942881792

[Ancestral Republican]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

A Republican Senate may actually help Biden govern in a more moderate way and enact sane Democratic policies supported by the majority of the people.

Anyone saying this is delusional. Turtle didn't pass a single common sense Democratic policy during the years of Obama/GOP senate. There's no reason this won't continue now.

I can see government shutdowns in our future, as well as failure to pass a respectable budget for any government agency (except our fat and bloated military/VA, of course, that's untouchable.)

CBS financial analyst says split government is the best structure for the stock market, so there's that.

That will be a small comfort to the guy in the dying throes of Diabetes because he had to ration his insulin, I'm sure.

[Hnv1]

Why don't they call Michigan already? it's over

[politics_king]

When does everyone think the official projection will be made on who won the election? Friday?

[Skill and Chance]

Biden's lead in Michigan is over 1% and growing rapidly.  MI is going to end up out of recount/legal dispute range.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

Look at everything Trump has done by executive order. Biden can undo it. Plus Fauci and Wray won't be fired. Plus we'll be respected in the world again. Also probably don't have to worry about a possible war with Iran.

Also if Breyer dies or needs to retire the Republicans can't fill the seat and make it 7-2.

McConnell can simply refuse to give a hearing to anyone that Biden might nominate to replace Breyer, thus making the court 6-2 in the interim. And then the seat would only be filled the next time either the Dems control both the Presidency and the Senate, or the next time the Republicans control both the Presidency and the Senate. Given the difficulty of the Dems winning the Senate (as evidenced by the results this year, at least if they turn out as expected where Dems comfortably win the most votes nationally yet again but don't win control of the Senate), it is more likely that the GOP will be the next party to control both the Senate and the Presidency. Which then makes the court 7-2 then.

So you end up with the same result.

I am not trying to say that there are not good things about Biden winning and Trump losing; clearly there are. But don't get all starry eyed and ignore the reality of who Mitch McConnell is.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

When are we expecting more returns from GA?

[wbrocks67]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

[BudgieForce]

Why don't they call Michigan already? it's over

If Fox calls Michigan than Biden is at 270. They might be waiting for the 9pm Arizona update to be safe.

[rhg2052]

When does everyone think the official projection will be made on who won the election? Friday?

I'm going to go with tomorrow afternoon. Michigan called this evening, Arizona (by the outlets that haven't yet) later tonight, and Nevada once their remaining absentees drop at noon tomorrow.

[wbrocks67]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Not to mention nearly everything nationwide that is still out is mail in, and that favors Biden by a lot

[Fargobison]

When does everyone think the official projection will be made on who won the election? Friday?

Depends on how the vote dumps in AZ and NV go later today, once we get more clarity there it could become clear that Trump has no viable path.

[Illiniwek]

Why don't they call Michigan already? it's over

If Fox calls Michigan than Biden is at 270. They might be waiting for the 9pm Arizona update to be safe.

Yeah but they haven’t called Nevada yet have they?

[Skill and Chance]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

1) New cabinet

2) Undoing Trump's executive orders

3) No more Trump-appointed judges. Sure he'll still have to go through McConnell, but at least we can stop the bleeding.

4) No more spur-of-the-moment major military decisions or presidential decrees by tweet

5) We can at least start to rebuild our reputation abroad

That's a lot!

Basically translates as Mitch is gonna put Biden in chastity and also make him watch the 6-3 SC do its thing.  

Why are you people so obsessed with the Supreme Court? Didn’t we see plenty of times already (e.g. Bostock v. Clayton County) that justices like Gorsuch are not some stupid conservative hacks? Biden can do A LOT as president and that includes reversing almost all of Trump’s policies. That’s simply a fact.

[ultraviolet]

So Biden is leading by a point in MI and the only counties not >95% in are Wayne, Kent, Kalamazoo, and Genesee? Call it

[wbrocks67]

Nevada coming TONIGHT

https://twitter.com/emmersbrown/status/1324094738337878018

[ultraviolet]

Why don't they call Michigan already? it's over

If Fox calls Michigan than Biden is at 270. They might be waiting for the 9pm Arizona update to be safe.

Did Fox call Nevada?

[Bootes Void]

Why don't they call Michigan already? it's over

If Fox calls Michigan than Biden is at 270. They might be waiting for the 9pm Arizona update to be safe.

Did Fox call Nevada?

No, nobody has

[Skill and Chance]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

1) New cabinet

2) Undoing Trump's executive orders

3) No more Trump-appointed judges. Sure he'll still have to go through McConnell, but at least we can stop the bleeding.

4) No more spur-of-the-moment major military decisions or presidential decrees by tweet

5) We can at least start to rebuild our reputation abroad

That's a lot!

Basically translates as Mitch is gonna put Biden in chastity and also make him watch the 6-3 SC do its thing.  

Why are you people so obsessed with the Supreme Court? Didn’t we see plenty of times already (e.g. Bostock v. Clayton County) that justices like Gorsuch are not some stupid conservative hacks? Biden can do A LOT as president and that includes reversing almost all of Trump’s policies. That’s simply a fact.

SCOTUS is a big deal, but I think a lot of people missed that the pivot point in terms of radical changes to the law is one justice further to the right.