2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[dunceDude]

This

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323772788549836801

[dunceDude]

Welcome to the beginning of the end of the 2020 election....

[dunceDude]

I'll never understand how you guys have the confidence to talk sh**t 2 minutes before Florida drops votes.

[dunceDude]

It's almost like it's way too early for 75% of these takes.

[dunceDude]

The amount of contradictory info and jumping to conclusions is ruining this thread.

[dunceDude]

Please stop the boom and bust cycle. Is twice not enough for you guys? Don't overreact to Ohio the same way you overreacted to FL or Kentucky... or at least don't post about it.

[dunceDude]

In other news.. 90% of Atlas analysis should be disregarded.

Everyone here is giving Rick and Morty Szechuan Sauce McDonalds energy ... the combination of stupidity and eagerness to overshare has created one of the dumbest threads I've ever seen.

[dunceDude]

Everyone is talking about how handsome people who live in Phoenix are! Super sexy bunch. Killer sense of humor to boot.

[dunceDude]

I just need to see more from WI/MI... that would make me feel a lot better.

[dunceDude]

NE-02:  Biden ahead by about nine with 57% in (per CNN)

Praying for this + AZ.

[dunceDude]

I could go to bed (not that I will) if they call NV and AZ for Biden. Haven't seen much NE-02 data but the NYT says 'Officials ... expect all election results to be posted by midnight.' That's the north star for me right now.

[dunceDude]

Assuming AZ is truly Biden's, it looks like his election to lose once again.

And with Nevada, it's 85% Biden.
Then with Nevada + NE-02, it's 96% Biden.

[dunceDude]

That 538 tool assumes that polling was correct and that Trump isn't likely to win Wisconsin/Michigan. It obviously wasn't and Trump obviously has more than a 10% of winning one of them.

It does not assume polling is correct—otherwise I wouldn't have been able to set Florida red for instance, where Biden was up in polling.

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323849023216865282

This is just as good as NE-02 right??

EDIT: No it is not ... it was expected.

[dunceDude]

In an alternate universe, President-elect Steve Bullock has already finished a victory speech alongside running mate Catherine Cortez-Masto.

[dunceDude]

No update in NE-02 yet... hopefully a call there within the next 40 minutes. 538 predicts there are 48k ballots left and Trump is down 29k currently.

[dunceDude]

NE-2 updated Biden's going to win!!

https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsSW.aspx?Select=1&text=All&selectids=%2C526

24k lead with 311k votes in. Seems done.

[dunceDude]

With NE-2 as a Biden win (as it very likely is), his odds have risen to 94%.

[dunceDude]

Seems like we might know Biden has won by the time we go to bed tonight.... future generations will never know how much a ride last night was.

[dunceDude]

https://twitter.com/MollyNagle3/status/1323990864327286784

Calling WI + MI for him today would be such, such sweet relief.

[dunceDude]

Experts are going to do a lot of great analysis and we don't need to rush it. Demographic change will continue over the next 4 years—remember we're in the awkward place where the Sun Belt is not ours yet, but the Rust Belt is slipping—and Trump, who was set to purge his cabinet and then wreck havoc, is likely gone.

It is far too early to say anything about '22.

As long as things don't take a terrible turn today I'm happy. Someone is finally going to read their intelligence reports, stop the blatant corruption, yatta yatta yatta.

[dunceDude]

Seems like this thread will be garbage bickering and evidence-free hot takes for the near future.

Side note--is there any way to turn off seeing signatures? Users with huge signatures annoy the sh**t out of me. If I see that photo of Joni Ernst one more time I'm taking a long walk.

[dunceDude]

Leftists are going to imply it's cringe that we're happy just to see Trump gone. What an insane misreading of the democratic base, which has been overwhelmingly disgusted with the man since day 1. The Titanic may still be headed towards a few icebergs but it is huge that we've likely replaced the captain.

Be happy and f**ck Twitter, as always.

[dunceDude]

Great summary and post, kudos.

[dunceDude]

I really want to leave this limbo where Biden has a 90=95% chance but no one can say for sure. The online narrative is going to be extremely stupid/negative until then.