2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[dunceDude]

I really want to leave this limbo where Biden has a 90=95% chance but no one can say for sure. The online narrative is going to be extremely stupid/negative until then.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/jdcapelouto/status/1324090574710996992

And Twitter hasn't marked it as misinformation, even after thousands of Rts.

Guess it's ok if it helps the Libs tho

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a sense of whether the outstanding vote numbers in North Carolina are correct (at least as reported by NYT)?  If they are, it really does look to me like Biden still has a chance there.

I think there's only 117K requested absentees total that are still out statewide and could potentially be mailed back with an 11/3 postmark.  If that is true, Trump's lead is almost completely safe.

The R challenger is leading the D incumbent for Chief Justice of the NC Supreme Court by just 4K statewide right now, so that will likely flip with the late absentees.

OK, so they NYT numbers are wrong?  Because they stand at 95% reporting, which would be ~250-300k outstanding ballots, including ~30k each in Mecklenburg and Wake.

[Bojack Horseman]

What is Biden saying? I’m working and can’t watch.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

It’s not the ideal scenario, but it’s a lot better than what we’ve had the past four years.

The only realistic alternative at this stage is 4 more years of Trump... so I'll take what we can get.

[cp]

CNN calls MI for Biden!

[American2020]

CNN: Biden wins Michigan.

[Silent Hunter]

That takes him to 253.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CNN: Biden wins Michigan.

The freiwal lives.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really want to leave this limbo where Biden has a 90=95% chance but no one can say for sure. The online narrative is going to be extremely stupid/negative until then.

Unless most of your uncertainty is rogue court decisions, Biden seems well over 95% to win to me.  He's about 95% in PA alone, and probably >80% to win the AZ+NV backstop even if that fails, and this doesn't even include GA or NC.  I'd say Biden is close to 99% to win a fair vote count at this point.

[Crumpets]

Biden's lead in Michigan has almost doubled just within the last hour. Hard to see other networks not following suit soon.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Biden has to be a lame duck, he's probably the best lame duck we could have gotten since he has lots of personal connections in the Senate and a rich history of bipartisan compromise.

I'm not saying he'll get anything done, but it's tough to think of a Democratic president more up to the challenge than Biden.

That said, we should have hundreds of children freed from cages and reunited with their parents in the first few weeks of a Biden presidency.  That's indisputably a good thing, regardless of whether Biden is able to get Mitch McConnell to came to the table on a comprehensive immigration reform package.

People just need to set their expectations accordingly.  I don't want to hear, in 8-10 years, everyone whining about how Biden was a "big letdown" who "didn't do anything he promised" and was "right-wing" because of compromises he had to make with Republicans.  There's been a lot of baby's first election this political cycle, with the media narrative driven by 18-35s who don't actually remember the Obama years and think that because Obama didn't give us universal health care he was a right-wing failure.  They're about to get a harsh lesson in what divided government looks like.  At least this time the Democrats are going to have the House.

[Hammy]

CNN: Biden wins Michigan.

Forumlurker's map has fallen

[politics_king]

Michigan looking safe for Biden, which leaves three paths to the presidency:

AZ+NV

or

GA+NV

or

PA

(just GA would be a cursed 269-269 tie)

The PA path has been looking pretty strong thus far, Biden needed to win these early returns 3-1 or so and he's been winning them 5-1 or 6-1.

AZ+NV really just depends on who you believe.  We're getting totally conflicting reports out of Arizona.  Most folks seem to think Nevada is going to end up going for Biden.

Next big news out of Georgia is 6 PM EST, and out of Arizona is 9 PM EST.  Biden doesn't need GA or AZ, but we'd all sure feel a heck of a lot more comfortable if he gets some good news.

Michigan called by CNN. He should get Arizona & Nevada. I hope he gets the final 3 states of PA, NC & GA. Watch the meltdown of the Doomers tonight.

[Bojack Horseman]

What about the Senate race?

[Crumpets]

CNN: Biden wins Michigan.

Forumlurker's map has fallen

Starring Morgan Freeman. Coming soon to a socially-distant theater near you.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Michigan is a great flip, but I caution everybody: don't count your chickens yet re: AZ and PA.  Lots of moving parts, still a lot that could happen.  

Still, nice to have it locked-in.  

[ultraviolet]

What about the Senate race?

Looks good. Peters up 9000 and I doubt James will be making up any ground

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Trump loses, how does the lame duck session end up? What will Trump do?

Sell off the White House furniture.

And leave a BIG poo in the middle of it  

[Crumpets]

Biden just now:

"I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners."

[Bojack Horseman]

What about the Senate race?

Looks good. Peters up 9000 and I doubt James will be making up any ground

Can I hug you? This race has been haunting me all f(inks)ing day

[dunceDude]

I really want to leave this limbo where Biden has a 90=95% chance but no one can say for sure. The online narrative is going to be extremely stupid/negative until then.

Unless most of your uncertainty is rogue court decisions, Biden seems well over 95% to win to me.  He's about 95% in PA alone, and probably >80% to win the AZ+NV backstop even if that fails, and this doesn't even include GA or NC.  I'd say Biden is close to 99% to win a fair vote count at this point.

I simply refuse to put him above 95% mentally. It would hurt too much to be wrong.

If Nevada posts good numbers I'll feel better.

[Splash]

Kent County still hasn't reported out any of their absentee ballots yet. Michigan won't be in recount territory when all is said and done.

[TopShelfGoal]

To those saying Biden will be a lame duck - this election is about getting rid of Trump, who is a threat to American democracy. I can live with Biden and a GOP Senate.

Same. I really hope GOP nominates someone normal like Mitt Romney, John Huntsman or Ben Sasse in 2024 so we don't have to worry about this kinda stuff.

[Inmate Trump]

Michigan is a sigh of relief.

But PA is still an unknown, as is Nevada and Arizona (neither are a guarantee just yet).