2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Sir Mohamed]

Morning everyone!

Didn't have much sleep tonight. Well, what can I say? Something we can all agree upon I think: The biggest loser of this election is, by far, polling industry. Maybe Trafalgar and Rassy were on something, I dunno. But the errors, aside from Selzer, are mind boggling. They're more off than in 2016, despite assurances to have improved from last time. Whatever they have done, it didn't work.

Dems definitely have to make an in-dept autopsy, even if Biden wins the WH, which is entirely possible. Hispanics, even non-Cuban, haven't been as strong as expected. I'm not sure this is just attributed to Biden himself. NM-SEN is much closer than it should be. It's closer than CO, which I didn't see coming at all. Generally, these downballot results are weird. It's not a Blue Wave, more of a wash. In the end, I think Pelosi and Schumer have to go during the next congress.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, NYT still hasn't called AZ for Biden, though it's now >98% in and he's up 51.0-47.6%. No way Trump makes this up.

[Sir Mohamed]

Antrim Co Michigan has to be some clerical error or something isn't it?



Was 62-33 Trump in 2016.  It almost completely inversed.

Whoa, that's Howard County, IA from 2012-16 reversed.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any hope we might get NC, or is it completely gone?

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=19

God, do I have enough of this dude. Just go away you orange fascist.

[Sir Mohamed]

is nv over?

Likely yes. Most votes still outstanding are from Clark. Biden will win NV by an underwhelming margin.

[Sir Mohamed]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

[Sir Mohamed]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

[Sir Mohamed]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

I’m sorry, what? This is the benchmark he needs.

Sure, better than Trump winning, but that's so fragile. One state with results challenged or one damn faithless elector, and this ends up in a total mess, making us a huge laughingstock in the world that will make 2000 look like peanuts. I wouldn't even be sure that both Biden and Harris get the 270 EVs. So plz give us a little more room.

[Sir Mohamed]

Don't want to panic, but new vote dump in PA, from 76% to 78% in, Biden not really closing the gap. Still down by about half a million. Holy moly, if this is 270-268.

[Sir Mohamed]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

[Sir Mohamed]

what counties are the outstanding ballots in az from?

Mostly blue counties. AZ will go for Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden lead in MI up to 32k.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's interesting, if Biden ends up with 290 EVs and a razor thin WI margin like 2018 gov race, this will be my pre-pandemic prediction.

[Sir Mohamed]

By the way Minnesota ds didn't even flip the state senate

Tina Smith also underperformed. Just ahead 48-43% as we speak. Sure, a win is a win, but she got 53% in 2018.

[Sir Mohamed]

The old turtle is not with Trump yet, even with the race 4 prez.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1324032431314395138

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324033983882166272?s=19

Tbh, Twitter should ban him for this. Every random congressman would be get muted for this stuff. Flagging isn't doing it anymore.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324033983882166272?s=19

POTUS needs to learn how to write in English.

* We speak English in this country, not Spanish *

[Sir Mohamed]

GA has dumped a little in, now from 92 to 93% counted. Trump lead shrunk to 87k from previously 100k.

[Sir Mohamed]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

This is crazy. How is Georgia & North Carolina looking?

Trump will win NC, Biden narrowly favoured in GA.

Hope that Biden wins Georgia, then Ossoff gets Perdue under the 50% for a runoff election.

Same, but I don't expect Ossoff or Warnock to safe us from a GOP senate. I'm sure it's going to be 52-48 R, with CO, AZ and AL flipping. D+1 net gain. Not that great. The 2022 map is favorable to Dems, but in a Biden midterm, the senate isn't flipping. With Trump reelected, it's doable.

[Sir Mohamed]

Duh, I wake up and we still don't have a result. But I'm feeling better and better about Biden being elected prez. Hope these PA prediction of 100k margin hold true, because this should finish Trump. Still unsure about AZ, though I'm optimistic after Fox News called it. They wouldn't have done so if it wasn't certain.

But it's kind of laughable it takes this long. What signals does that send to the world? We're supposed to be the oldest democracy, but this is a farce. That said, I don't blame the poll workers at all. They're hard working people who likely had very little sleep last night and are under enormous pressure. But maybe, just maybe, we should take lessons from Canada, most of Europe or Australia, because they don't have these delays.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324368202139357186?s=19

Americans, can you feel the dictatorship ?

His hardcore base doesn't care. They would much rather have a Trump dictatorship rather than being led by a "socialist, corrupt career politician who hates religion and wants post-birth abortion"...

And this is why I'm still disappointed, even if Biden gets the 306 EVs. We had the chance to reject this orange fascist by a wide margin and early on if FL wasn't FL or if Cooper voters in NC went for Biden, too. You can argue Dems and Biden made some errors here and there, but this election was about democracy vs. corruption and fascism. We may have passed the test, but just bare enough.

[Sir Mohamed]

Any word from NC? Still not updated for 24 hours? Why does that take so long? I still have a small hope for Cunningham. Very likely not happening, but I don't want to give up completely. Too bad these Cooper voters didn't go all for Biden and Cal.

[Sir Mohamed]

My take would be the Trump campaign, maybe except Trump himself who is delusional, knows their legal maneuvers are nonsense and have little substance from a legal standpoint, but want to spin the narrative the election was stolen. Not "Biden won and it's over", but instead "we fought against the corrupt Deep State, and the election was stolen from Trump".

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

AG Doug Jones incoming.