COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

Those protocols are pretty standard across most of the federal government right now though. Large gatherings are supposed to be avoided if possible.

[Roll Roons]

Those protocols are pretty standard across most of the federal government right now though. Large gatherings are supposed to be avoided if possible.

It shouldn't be the standard. It's a f**king sniffle if you're vaccinated and especially if you're boosted, which is what all of our government (except for crazies like MTG) are.

Hey, maybe we should no longer be led by people who are basically shriveled corpses.

[emailking]

Ok but it's not Pelosi going rogue. E.g. the whole military still requires masks indoors, vax or not.

[Roll Roons]

It flows from the top down. Biden can set an example.

[Mr. Illini]

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

There are still roughly 40 million people in the US that haven't received any of the vaccine (and many more who have received one dose) so the size of that population--even absent any other factors--is going to see high numbers of deaths given the rate of spread.

Yes, I am aware of all of that. It is giving our public health experts pause, whereas in Denmark, where the population has higher rates of vaccination, there is less reason for pause.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Hot take: Democrats probably lose big in the midterms, but it will have almost nothing to do with COVID (directly). Biden's "poor handling of COVID" is not what drove down his approvals. For most of the slump his COVID approvals have been considerably higher than his general approval rating. It wouldn't make any sense for that to be the cause of the administration's unpopularity then. Contrast this with Biden's approvals on inflation and the economy, which are in the gutter. Inflation and economic concerns will probably be far more important for people's votes this fall.

[ElectionsGuy]

Johns Hopkins Study: Covid Lockdowns saved 0.2% of Lives at Enormous Economic and Social Costs in US/Europe.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10466995/New-study-says-lockdowns-reduced-COVID-mortality-2-percent.html

'While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted,' researchers wrote. 'In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.'

I said it in May 2020, when it wasn't socially acceptable, but now I'll say it again: worst public policy decision in decades.

[Tintrlvr]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

That ties in neatly with all the "I want my country back!" narrative though.

[Calthrina950]

Johns Hopkins Study: Covid Lockdowns saved 0.2% of Lives at Enormous Economic and Social Costs in US/Europe.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10466995/New-study-says-lockdowns-reduced-COVID-mortality-2-percent.html

'While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted,' researchers wrote. 'In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.'

I said it in May 2020, when it wasn't socially acceptable, but now I'll say it again: worst public policy decision in decades.

I am curious to know how the situation would have turned out if our leadership had taken the same approach to the pandemic that the Scandinavian countries did, with fewer restrictions and more encouragement of social interaction.

[emailking]

Johns Hopkins Study: Covid Lockdowns saved 0.2% of Lives at Enormous Economic and Social Costs in US/Europe.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10466995/New-study-says-lockdowns-reduced-COVID-mortality-2-percent.html

'While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted,' researchers wrote. 'In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.'

I said it in May 2020, when it wasn't socially acceptable, but now I'll say it again: worst public policy decision in decades.

It's a meta analysis based on 0.1% of the available lockdown studies. Obviously you can't catch a respiratory virus if you stay at home. And a lot of the locking down was voluntary. e.g. the economy was already slowing in Feb 2020. If there had been no restrictions enacted by government, there may still have been a recession.

[Calthrina950]

Johns Hopkins Study: Covid Lockdowns saved 0.2% of Lives at Enormous Economic and Social Costs in US/Europe.

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10466995/New-study-says-lockdowns-reduced-COVID-mortality-2-percent.html

'While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted,' researchers wrote. 'In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.'

I said it in May 2020, when it wasn't socially acceptable, but now I'll say it again: worst public policy decision in decades.

It's a meta analysis based on 0.1% of the available lockdown studies. Obviously you can't catch a respiratory virus if you stay at home. And a lot of the locking down was voluntary. e.g. the economy was already slowing in Feb 2020. If there had been no restrictions enacted by government, there may still have been a recession.

The study actually mentions this-that many people voluntarily changed their behavior because of the pandemic. What the study is arguing is that mandatory lockdowns, or "NPIs", had little or no measurable impact upon coronavirus mortality rates.

[emailking]

Yes I got that.

[Calthrina950]

Yes I got that.

But you seem to be arguing that restrictions were justified.

[emailking]

Actually I think they were unconstitutional, but I have a hard time swallowing that they didn't flatten the death curve at all.

If the argument is that most the benefit came from the voluntary locking down, then it doesn't make sense that the forced lockdowns were a problem.

If the argument is that people staying home and business closing didn't affect the death rate at all, then I don't understand how I haven't gotten a cold in 2 years or how 2 strains of the Flu are probably extinct.

[Calthrina950]

Actually I think they were unconstitutional, but I have a hard time swallowing that they didn't flatten the death curve at all.

If the argument is that most the benefit came from the voluntary locking down, then it doesn't make sense that the forced lockdowns were a problem.

If the argument is that people staying home and business closing didn't affect the death rate at all, then I don't understand how I haven't gotten a cold in 2 years or how 2 strains of the Flu are probably extinct.

The study notes how the social and economic costs associated with the lockdowns were not worth in the reduction in mortality rates, and that such reduction was of a very trifling or minimal nature. In other words, the lockdowns did little to stem the natural course of the virus.

[emailking]

Yeah I'll take their meta analysis as a data point, but maybe something that looks at some of the remaining 99.9% of the lockdown studies will have a different conclusion.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah I'll take their meta analysis as a data point, but maybe something that looks at some of the remaining 99.9% of the lockdown studies will have a different conclusion.

They do make reference to opposing research that argues the lockdowns did have an impact, and they note that mask mandates may have had some impact. But on balance, the authors of this analysis are of the viewpoint that the policies imposed were not worth the benefits which they conferred.

[compucomp]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties; NYC restaurants reported mass cancellations of reservations in December. Also, firms (particularly hospitality) have responded to reduced demand and staffing shortages by cutting hours or shutting down. To anti-restriction people particularly here, even though the government didn't do anything, it still feels like a "lockdown" to them and thus they complain about it as if it were one. The big difference, and I've made this point before, is that they are no longer complaining about an overreaching government, but instead attacking their fellow citizens for taking the virus seriously, which is both deplorable and decidedly anti-freedom.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s one thing to argue the lockdowns were not worth it. I argue they were worth it only in spring 2020 and areas with high hospitalization rates to the point of overflow from there on out. It’s another to day they didn’t not reduce the virus at all, that’s ridiculous and would need a TON of evidence for such a counterintuitive claim (and no comparing New stork and Florida in March 2020 is not sufficient evidence, Taco Boy)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Actually I think they were unconstitutional, but I have a hard time swallowing that they didn't flatten the death curve at all.

 Flattening the curve ~ same'ish totals, but lower peak.

EXPLAINER: “Flattening the curve”

One way to present information about an outbreak or epidemic is to show in a graph the number of cases of infected people over time.
A very high curve is created by a steep increase in the number of cases per day, followed by a quick decrease in the number of cases. A flatter curve is created by a more gradual increase in the number of cases per day and a more gradual decrease. Over a long period of time the number of people infected might be around the same, but the difference is the number of cases that occur each day

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/searo/thailand/2020-03-19-tha-sitrep-26-covid19.pdf?sfvrsn=6f433d5e_2#:~:text=A%20flatter%20curve%20is%20created,that%20occur%20each%20day.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties;

So you're saying people knows best? Yes! It's exactly the "freedom" way. You provide people with information and recommendation, but trust their judgement, contrary to authoritative way, when you force people, because you think, Government knows better. And this meta-analysis indicates, that the "freedom" way worked.

[MATTROSE94]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties; NYC restaurants reported mass cancellations of reservations in December. Also, firms (particularly hospitality) have responded to reduced demand and staffing shortages by cutting hours or shutting down. To anti-restriction people particularly here, even though the government didn't do anything, it still feels like a "lockdown" to them and thus they complain about it as if it were one. The big difference, and I've made this point before, is that they are no longer complaining about an overreaching government, but instead attacking their fellow citizens for taking the virus seriously, which is both deplorable and decidedly anti-freedom.

I would say that about 30% of the population will continue to follow very strict COVID precautions indefinitely and that certain states (California, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, DC, New York, and Illinois) and institutions (colleges, private businesses, etc.) will keep their respective COVID NPIs in place for the long term.

It is really up to people to judge their risk calculus regarding COVID at this point. My risk calculus is less than others, though I still wear an N95 at my job and in certain settings. During the pandemic, I have travelled, attended mass events, and eaten out indoors, though I understand that for others, those activities represent a risk to them.

[emailking]

Flattening the curve ~ same'ish totals, but lower peak.

I agree as a mathematical exercise you can flatten a curve without reducing the area underneath it, but the CDC's simulations showed flattening would take deaths (in 2020) from millions to hundreds of thousands.

[Person Man]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.

NY seems to be doubling down on restrictions despite the fact that Omicron peaked here three weeks ago, and now we are basically at the same case levels as we had when this mask mandate was put into effect, supposedly just to stop the holiday surge

I feel like we are in a world of phantom restrictions where no restrictions are ever actually imposed but anti-restriction people feel like they are being imposed anyway.

I think this is because of a couple of factors; many people have responded to the pandemic by adapting their behavior and cancelled social events like holiday parties; NYC restaurants reported mass cancellations of reservations in December. Also, firms (particularly hospitality) have responded to reduced demand and staffing shortages by cutting hours or shutting down. To anti-restriction people particularly here, even though the government didn't do anything, it still feels like a "lockdown" to them and thus they complain about it as if it were one. The big difference, and I've made this point before, is that they are no longer complaining about an overreaching government, but instead attacking their fellow citizens for taking the virus seriously, which is both deplorable and decidedly anti-freedom.

I would say that about 30% of the population will continue to follow very strict COVID precautions indefinitely and that certain states (California, Oregon, Hawaii, Washington, DC, New York, and Illinois) and institutions (colleges, private businesses, etc.) will keep their respective COVID NPIs in place for the long term.

It is really up to people to judge their risk calculus regarding COVID at this point. My risk calculus is less than others, though I still wear an N95 at my job and in certain settings. During the pandemic, I have travelled, attended mass events, and eaten out indoors, though I understand that for others, those activities represent a risk to them.

Same here. I wear masks when I am told and have gotten the booster the weekend before Thanksgiving. However, as soon as I was vaccinated, I stopped wearing masks.