COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Banana Republican]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

[Roll Roons]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

[Banana Republican]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

sigh

https://www.govtech.com/health/fla-changes-how-it-counts-covid-deaths-misleads-public

Fla. Changes How It Counts COVID Deaths, Misleads Public
As the COVID-19 delta variant has led to record infections and hospitalizations in Florida, the state's health agency has altered the way it reports COVID-related deaths, creating a misleading downward trend.
August 31, 2021 •
Sarah Blaskey, Ana Claudia Chacin, Devoun Cetoute, McClatchy Washington Bureau

(TNS) — As the delta variant spreads through Florida, data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest this could be the most serious and deadly surge in COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic.

As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.

On Monday, Florida death data would have shown an average of 262 daily deaths reported to the CDC over the previous week had the health department used its former reporting system, the Herald analysis showed. Instead, the Monday update from Florida showed just 46 “new deaths” per day over the previous seven days.

The dramatic difference is due to a small change in the fine print. Until three weeks ago, data collected by DOH and published on the CDC website counted deaths by the date they were recorded — a common method for producing daily stats used by most states. On Aug. 10, Florida switched its methodology and, along with just a handful of other states, began to tally new deaths by the date the person died.

If you chart deaths by Florida’s new method, based on date of death, it will generally appear — even during a spike like the present — that deaths are on a recent downslope. That’s because it takes time for deaths to be evaluated and death certificates processed. When those deaths finally are tallied, they are assigned to the actual data of death — creating a spike where there once existed a downslope and moving the downslope forward in time.

Shivani Patel, a social epidemiologist and assistant professor at Emory University called the move “extremely problematic,” especially since it came without warning or explanation during a rise in cases.

Patel said Florida death data now show an “artificial decline” in recent deaths and without an explanation or context, and “it would look like we are doing better than we are.”

[Calthrina950]

However, cases are clearly falling so in the long-term the death toll from Omicron should be lower.

Unfortunately, that is probably incorrect because:

a) People will get (and already are getting) re-infected, and it does not appear to be the case that reinfections have a greatly lower fatality rate or morbidity rate as compared to initial infections. Partial immunity from antibodies seems like it may wane faster than with Delta, and there have been some studies suggesting that T cells don't provide strong or relatively long lasting immunity from an omicron infection unless it severe.

b) The fact that it is more contagious and infecting more people means that there are more hosts within which additional future variants can evolve, further increasing the probability that additional new variants which further evade prior immunity both from infection and from vaccines evolve.

The central problem is that immunity is short-lived. Unless and until something changes with respect to that, we are going to keep having additional waves over time.

Out of curiosity, which of these Covid view camps do you fall into? How much longer do you think the pandemic will continue for? And do you believe the measures which have been implemented should become permanent?

[Banana Republican]

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

C'mon, make an effort. This is sad to see.

[compucomp]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

There is clearly something wrong with Florida's data, whether it's intentional or not. Texas has 7x deaths per capita in the last week under mostly similar climate and leadership.

[emailking]

If Delta is 0.5% of infections (and that was determined a few weeks ago), and even if there are actually 2 million cases a day, that means 10,000 cases a day of delta. And we're seeing like 2000 deaths a day. So how does that work if those deaths are mostly Delta?

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1487247488780316672

Man lost his job, his life, widowed his wife and left 4 children fatherless, crazy.

 More police died of Covid-19 the past 2 years than anything else, this is the deadliest thing going for cops.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

OK, but how many of the current deaths are among fully vaccinated people?

And why is this stat not reported everywhere any time covid deaths are reported?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1487247488780316672

Man lost his job, his life, widowed his wife and left 4 children fatherless, crazy.

 More police died of Covid-19 the past 2 years than anything else, this is the deadliest thing going for cops.

I can certainly sympathize with his family, given my own father's death back in November. But exactly how many law enforcement officers have died from the virus? I've never seen any figures.

[emailking]

OK, but how many of the current deaths are among fully vaccinated people?

And why is this stat not reported everywhere any time covid deaths are reported?

I don't think that's being collected everywhere.

[Hammy]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

Florida's official policy has been science denial for years. One can simultaneously believe that most of the restrictions now are simply not practical while acknowledging Florida is not being honest with their data.

[GP270watch]

OK, but how many of the current deaths are among fully vaccinated people?

And why is this stat not reported everywhere any time covid deaths are reported?

COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated and Fully Vaccinated Adults with and Without Booster Doses During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Emergence — 25 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–December 25, 2021

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1487247488780316672

Man lost his job, his life, widowed his wife and left 4 children fatherless, crazy.

 More police died of Covid-19 the past 2 years than anything else, this is the deadliest thing going for cops.

I can certainly sympathize with his family, given my own father's death back in November. But exactly how many law enforcement officers have died from the virus? I've never seen any figures.

Covid-19 was the leading cause of death among U.S. police officers in 2021, a report says.

A total of 458 officers died in the line of duty in the country last year, making it the deadliest year in more than 90 years and a 55 percent increase from 2020, according to preliminary data compiled by the organization. Of those, it found that 301 federal, state, tribal and local law enforcement officers had died because of Covid-19.

 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

OK, but how many of the current deaths are among fully vaccinated people?

And why is this stat not reported everywhere any time covid deaths are reported?

COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated and Fully Vaccinated Adults with and Without Booster Doses During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Emergence — 25 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–December 25, 2021

Thanks, this is very helpful information!

It is mostly pre-Omicron, but it reports that the weekly death rate for boosted people during the delta surge was one per million.  

The total number of deaths for boosted people under age 50 during the delta surge was five people.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Worldometer says Florida is averaging only 29 per day, and is declining.

Please tell me that you are not this dumb.

Just a few minutes ago, it fell to 22.

You know the BlueAnon crowd will jump in and claim that it's somehow fake.

There is clearly something wrong with Florida's data, whether it's intentional or not. Texas has 7x deaths per capita in the last week under mostly similar climate and leadership.

Could be simply on a different part of the curve.

[emailking]

Pfizer could submit for EUA for two-dose Covid-19 vaccine for children younger than 5 as soon as today

Pfizer is expected to seek authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration as soon as today for its Covid-19 vaccine for children age 6 months up to 5 years, a person familiar with the plan says.

The company will ask the agency to grant emergency use authorization for a two-dose regimen of its product while continuing to test three doses in this younger age group, the person said.

Pfizer was encouraged to seek authorization for the two doses by federal regulators, who hope it can be granted by late February. Waiting on data for three doses could extend the wait until March.

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is already authorized for use in people as young as 5, and if authorized, this shot would be the first Covid-19 vaccine available for the youngest children.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/01/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine-eua-request-younger-children/index.html

[BlueSwan]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

[GP270watch]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

 The Dominican Republic opened up travel to foreigners with very few restrictions but they organized a national campaign to vaccinate every hospitality worker that is expected to interact with tourist. So they prioritized vaccinating some 174,000 people. So far this has worked, tourism is rebounding to record levels and the death rate and cases is lower than United States and many of the European countries the travelers are coming from.

Why Is Everyone Going to the Dominican Republic?

[Calthrina950]

This is an interesting article about the criticism which has been directed at HHS Secretary Becerra. The primary criticisms of Becerra seem to be that he has not been visible enough in leading the Department's pandemic response efforts, that he has failed to coordinate matters between the various agencies and officials within the Department, and that he's blocked some policy moves that have been broadly supported by many administrative and public health officials.

Fauci, Walensky, and Murthy all are subordinates of Becerra, and are supposed to report to him. But instead, they have reported to Jeff Zients, a close adviser of Biden's and the Administration's pandemic coordinator. Zients has taken up many of the responsibilities which are traditionally exercised by Becerra. Becerra has made very few media appearances since taking office, far fewer than his predecessors Azar, Burwell, and Sebelius, and some within the Department believe that he hasn't provided clear enough direction on its policy priorities. And now, there are some within the Administration who want to fire Becerra. But given the situation with Breyer's seat, the closely divided Senate, and other political considerations, such move is not considered feasible.

I've said before that Biden's cabinet nominees have been thoroughly unimpressive, and someone other than Becerra should have been made HHS Secretary. He's always come across as arrogant and as close-minded to me.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

Democrats are not insisting on heavy restrictions.  Just mask mandates and vaccine mandates.  Mask mandates are a very cheap and easy way to limit spread of the virus.  Vaccine mandates are a very cheap and easy way to ensure that if you do get Omicron, it's just like the flu, instead of killing you.  These are both good things to continue to insist on for as long as Omicron case numbers are surging.

[Can't Bear]

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

Democrats are not insisting on heavy restrictions.  Just mask mandates and vaccine mandates.  Mask mandates are a very cheap and easy way to limit spread of the virus.  Vaccine mandates are a very cheap and easy way to ensure that if you do get Omicron, it's just like the flu, instead of killing you.  These are both good things to continue to insist on for as long as Omicron case numbers are surging.

Sounds like Democrats definitely "are gonna get killed" in midterms then.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1487247488780316672

Man lost his job, his life, widowed his wife and left 4 children fatherless, crazy.

 More police died of Covid-19 the past 2 years than anything else, this is the deadliest thing going for cops.

I can certainly sympathize with his family, given my own father's death back in November. But exactly how many law enforcement officers have died from the virus? I've never seen any figures.

Covid-19 was the leading cause of death among U.S. police officers in 2021, a report says.

A total of 458 officers died in the line of duty in the country last year, making it the deadliest year in more than 90 years and a 55 percent increase from 2020, according to preliminary data compiled by the organization. Of those, it found that 301 federal, state, tribal and local law enforcement officers had died because of Covid-19.

 

Of course, Mr Lemay wasn't a police officer when he died of Covid

[Mr. Illini]

Day 1 of no restrictions here in Denmark. Feels great. Case numbers are extremely high - more than 40k a day (10 times more than the peak last winter)- but basically nobody gets seriously sick from Omicron here. The total number of people in intensive care is now a paltry 28 persons and is now the lowest since october, which was pre-Omicron. Basically, we have had record high infections throughout january while at the very same time the number of infected in intensive care has fallen by 60%. This is because basically everybody who needed intensive care from COVID had the Delta variant and now that we basically only have Omicron nobody needs intensive care anymore. The remaining 28 are mostly NOT there because of their Omicron infection, but just happen to have it. This is even more pronounced when you look at deaths, where pretty much everyone currently registrered as dying from COVID is actually dying WITH COVID instead, unlike earlier in the pandemic.  

I have supported restrictions and mandates since the beginning, but people need to start to realize that the Omicron variant really isn't very dangerous and that we have ALL the medical tools to combat this disease now in vaccines and therapeutics (most notably Paxlovid from Pfizer). I have no idea why other countries aren't doing like Denmark and the UK at this point. I imagine it has to be right around the corner.

Also, from a political perspective, democrats are gonna get killed if they insist on heavy restrictions way after they cease to be necessary.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that all restrictions were dropped by a united parliament. All parties/groups in parliament supported it, from the far left to the far right.

Our situation is complicated by higher numbers of deaths we’re seeing. It’s not clear whether this is because of lower vaccination numbers, stronger presence of comorbidities, or other things, but it’s giving our leaders pause.

I suspect it is coming in the next few weeks, though. We’ve already seen public health leaders giving the signals.