COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

Hopefully, but I'm worried it's like that late increase in deaths in the Delta wave. Deaths are a lagging indicator so we need more time to know for sure that Omicron is mild and can't overwhelm the healthcare system/cause mass death among the vaccinated. In the meantime, people should be responsible and take precautions by wearing masks and having a few less social contacts than normal.

[jamestroll]

All you rich people here can work remotely..

I'm not poor but I can't work remotely.  I'm still getting paid but I hate the isolation and being stuck inside. I wish I could work remotely.

[Matty]

Hypothetical:

A scientist comes forward and says he created omicron variant. He specifically made it mild and contagious to get rid of delta variant.

Is this man to be regarded as a villain or a hero?

[emailking]

Hypothetical:

A scientist comes forward and says he created omicron variant. He specifically made it mild and contagious to get rid of delta variant.

Is this man to be regarded as a villain or a hero?

If he releases it, he's a mass murderer.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

Hopefully, but I'm worried it's like that late increase in deaths in the Delta wave. Deaths are a lagging indicator so we need more time to know for sure that Omicron is mild and can't overwhelm the healthcare system/cause mass death among the vaccinated. In the meantime, people should be responsible and take precautions by wearing masks and having a few less social contacts than normal.

I'm not pro-mask in the manner that you are, but I have noticed that the numbers of mask-wearing customers at my job have increased in recent weeks. The balance between those wearing masks and those who aren't is probably about 50/50 at this point.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

Hopefully, but I'm worried it's like that late increase in deaths in the Delta wave. Deaths are a lagging indicator so we need more time to know for sure that Omicron is mild and can't overwhelm the healthcare system/cause mass death among the vaccinated. In the meantime, people should be responsible and take precautions by wearing masks and having a few less social contacts than normal.

It's worth noting South Africa is already on the decline in cases and hospitalizations have also dramatically decreased.

[Drew]

I got my booster today and then did a bunch of Christmas shopping in Madison.  I saw a pretty fair number of unmasked people in the stores despite a mask mandate being in effect.  From my experience, people at Madison stores have been pretty consistent with wearing masks when a mandate is in effect.  I’m guessing these stores and malls are currently getting a good number of shoppers from more rural, maskphobic areas as Christmas approaches. 

[GregTheGreat657]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

Hopefully, but I'm worried it's like that late increase in deaths in the Delta wave. Deaths are a lagging indicator so we need more time to know for sure that Omicron is mild and can't overwhelm the healthcare system/cause mass death among the vaccinated. In the meantime, people should be responsible and take precautions by wearing masks and having a few less social contacts than normal.

I'm not pro-mask in the manner that you are, but I have noticed that the numbers of mask-wearing customers at my job have increased in recent weeks. The balance between those wearing masks and those who aren't is probably about 50/50 at this point.

Where I live, only about 20-30% of people wore masks until the mandate was put back into effect, though that number seemed to go up slightly throughout the fall.

[Pericles]

I got my booster today and then did a bunch of Christmas shopping in Madison.  I saw a pretty fair number of unmasked people in the stores despite a mask mandate being in effect.  From my experience, people at Madison stores have been pretty consistent with wearing masks when a mandate is in effect.  I’m guessing these stores and malls are currently getting a good number of shoppers from more rural, maskphobic areas as Christmas approaches. 

That's just silly it's really not hard to wear a mask while you're shopping. The people I sympathize with are the retail workers who have to wear them all day.

[Frodo]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1473077569511645184

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

Hopefully, but I'm worried it's like that late increase in deaths in the Delta wave. Deaths are a lagging indicator so we need more time to know for sure that Omicron is mild and can't overwhelm the healthcare system/cause mass death among the vaccinated. In the meantime, people should be responsible and take precautions by wearing masks and having a few less social contacts than normal.

Throughout the entire pandemic deaths have lagged cases by 2 weeks. It's now 4 weeks since the emergence of omicron. Deaths are flat. I will not mask and I will not social distance. I am not going to keep sacrificing normal life over a goddamn cold.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NY State seems to have the most deaths since Q1.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse)

In UK, which has an excellent data, Delta is only partially displaced (esp. among vaccinated). It looks more like Omicron is adding additional cases. Based on data from UK:
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1473032130984873988

The scenario where they coexists seems now more likely than a couple of weeks ago. Though, if you're vaccinated/boosted, it doesn't really matter (so long), nevertheless it's fascinating.

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

Travel bans are not for a total prevention (and Police are not for total eradication of crime - should one abolish police?) of virus coming to the country. They are for giving extra time to be prepared. A lot of vulnerables had time to get a booster because of travel ban. Now this time it gave ~3-5 times less time, because Omicron is ~3-5 times faster than Delta, but who knows who fast the next virus [variant] will be. 

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1473065319769862145?s=20

Very good news.

Hopefully, but I'm worried it's like that late increase in deaths in the Delta wave. Deaths are a lagging indicator so we need more time to know for sure that Omicron is mild and can't overwhelm the healthcare system/cause mass death among the vaccinated. In the meantime, people should be responsible and take precautions by wearing masks and having a few less social contacts than normal.

Throughout the entire pandemic deaths have lagged cases by 2 weeks. It's now 4 weeks since the emergence of omicron. Deaths are flat. I will not mask and I will not social distance. I am not going to keep sacrificing normal life over a goddamn cold.

There is a lot of trashy in data in many of the states.  I don't much trust the Blue States.  Not cause of Bias. It's due to the fact that Murderer Cuomo was the only Governor that was absolutely guilty of submitting fraudulent numbers to the DOJ, and the media ignored it for over a year despite the production of concrete evidence.  As long as media companies continue to hire the same people that defrauded the public for the last two years, I can't in good faith ask anyone to sacrifice anything until they are replaced by actual journalists that retrieve and demand transparent data on Covid-19, particularly deaths within the vaccinated group-set from side-effects and post-jab infections. 

And Fauci needs to be removed.  Just saw a recent poll where 2/3rds of Americans distrusted government officials on Covid-19 science.  Asking people to continue listening to his advise after he's been repeatedly discredited for many grave mistakes is just assinine.

In any event, I mask up when I got to stores.  If the store is empty and spacious or outdoors, I put it in my pocket.  I don't trust the vaccinated without masks, because they go around to stores with symptoms cause they believe they can't spread it around (Fauci and media lie).  One of them I criticized after being coughed on at the grocery store. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1473259953989328902
Nice. In a parallel universe, where Biden signed BIF in July, there are no mandates, and the message above is his mantra since the summer, Biden's approvals are probably at 50%, Dems hold VA and probably Senate, if not Congress, in 2022.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1473236837342883840

Good step, although I wish it had been done sooner.

[ilikeverin]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1473077569511645184

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

Huh. I'd love for an epidemiologist to help me understand this: if the whole country is now saturated with omicron, why isn't everywhere in the country surging like NYC is right now? Rates are decreasing here in Buffalo. Is the idea that basically everywhere in the country will look like NYC in a week or two now that omicron is everywhere?

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/BauerJournalism/status/1473290563386589199

Good move, but would have been done in September if Lori Lightfoot weren't such a dunce.

[Roll Roons]

I don't understand why Bowser won't just get her s**t together and do the same thing rather than going back and forth on mask mandates.

Honestly, they need to stop using cases as a key metric. Vaccinated people might be testing positive but they're generally not getting seriously ill. It's overwhelmingly the unvaccinated who are taking up hospital beds and dying.

[Crucial Waukesha]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1473077569511645184

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

Huh. I'd love for an epidemiologist to help me understand this: if the whole country is now saturated with omicron, why isn't everywhere in the country surging like NYC is right now? Rates are decreasing here in Buffalo. Is the idea that basically everywhere in the country will look like NYC in a week or two now that omicron is everywhere?

Since Omicron grows so rapidly, the areas in which it is growning explode with cases, so they take up a very large portion of cases overall.   The areas like Buffalo that have waning Delta waves are just taking up a smaller and smaller portion of the pie each day as the Omicron areas grow so quickly.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cities that enact a vaccine mandate should also be required to repeal the mask mandate.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1473077569511645184

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

Huh. I'd love for an epidemiologist to help me understand this: if the whole country is now saturated with omicron, why isn't everywhere in the country surging like NYC is right now? Rates are decreasing here in Buffalo. Is the idea that basically everywhere in the country will look like NYC in a week or two now that omicron is everywhere?

Since Omicron grows so rapidly, the areas in which it is growning explode with cases, so they take up a very large portion of cases overall.   The areas like Buffalo that have waning Delta waves are just taking up a smaller and smaller portion of the pie each day as the Omicron areas grow so quickly.

Another question is how many probes are actually sequenced? Not every positive tests gets examined for the variant.

I'd also assume mobility is higher in NYC than elsewhere in the state. So cases begin to soar sooner there.

[ilikeverin]

The Delta variant has been displaced, for better (or worse):

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1473077569511645184

Travel bans clearly do not work in preventing viruses or virus variants from entering the country, so we need to think of better methods.  Let this be the last time we ever try this tactic.

Huh. I'd love for an epidemiologist to help me understand this: if the whole country is now saturated with omicron, why isn't everywhere in the country surging like NYC is right now? Rates are decreasing here in Buffalo. Is the idea that basically everywhere in the country will look like NYC in a week or two now that omicron is everywhere?

Since Omicron grows so rapidly, the areas in which it is growning explode with cases, so they take up a very large portion of cases overall.   The areas like Buffalo that have waning Delta waves are just taking up a smaller and smaller portion of the pie each day as the Omicron areas grow so quickly.

Mm, makes sense! Thanks