COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

[Grassroots]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

How do you define normal here?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1259303029112799234

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/JoeNBC/status/1259303029112799234

Small clusters like these are inevitable, but the goal is to reduce the virus to the point that said clusters can be quickly identified and isolated from the rest of society. The lockdowns are only necessary because of our lack of action at first. Any reopening must be met with extensive testing (sort of happening, depends on the State), randomized testing, and a plan in case a cluster emerges.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Florida will probably go to Phase II reopening within a week or two at this rate

[BudgieForce]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

I'd advise against reading too much into todays numbers. It was a holiday on a Sunday. Let's see what Monday and Tuesday bring.

[Grassroots]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

How do you define normal here?

A very small amount of cases and deaths per day. Say, 100-500 cases p/d nationwide, and 50 ish deaths p/d nationwide. Essentially a South Korea situation.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

I'd advise against reading too much into todays numbers. It was a holiday on a Sunday. Let's see what Monday and Tuesday bring.

Yes but we still had a LOT of tests for Sunday, 278k which is a lot

[BudgieForce]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

I'd advise against reading too much into todays numbers. It was a holiday on a Sunday. Let's see what Monday and Tuesday bring.

Yes but we still had a LOT of tests for Sunday, 278k which is a lot

Yeah. There are definitely positive things today. Just pointing out Sunday's tend to be less representative on the whole. Not to mention it was Mother's day.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

I'd advise against reading too much into todays numbers. It was a holiday on a Sunday. Let's see what Monday and Tuesday bring.

Yes but we still had a LOT of tests for Sunday, 278k which is a lot

Yeah. There are definitely positive things today. Just pointing out Sunday's tend to be less representative on the whole. Not to mention it was Mother's day.

Yeah, if the pattern holds then Tuesday there will be another surge in cases and deaths sadly

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/10 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8:

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)

5/10 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1259621162163855361

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/aprildryan/status/1259635624786739202

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

‘Scary to Go to Work’: White House Races to Contain Virus in Its Ranks

The discovery of the two infected employees has prompted the White House to ramp up its procedures to combat the virus, asking more staff members to work from home, increasing usage of masks and more rigorously screening people who enter the complex.

It is not clear how many other White House officials Ms. Miller or the valet might have come into contact with in recent days, but many members of the West Wing staff who were most likely in meetings with Ms. Miller before she tested positive are still coming to work, according to senior administration officials.

Late Sunday, the White House put out a statement saying that Mr. Pence would not alter his routine or self-quarantine. The vice president “has tested negative every single day and plans to be at the White House tomorrow,” said Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for Mr. Pence.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I noticed that for a while worldometers was including 3-week rolling averages in their daily case & death graphs, then briefly switched them to 7-day averages, but have now removed the averages entirely.  I wonder why.

[jimrtex]

Western Australia easing restrictions on 18 May 2020.



Swimming pools open with max 20 people.

What is a "home open"?

[Dr. Arch]

I noticed that for a while worldometers was including 3-week rolling averages in their daily case & death graphs, then briefly switched them to 7-day averages, but have now removed the averages entirely.  I wonder why.

Email them and find out.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I noticed that for a while worldometers was including 3-week rolling averages in their daily case & death graphs, then briefly switched them to 7-day averages, but have now removed the averages entirely.  I wonder why.

They removed it because it was causing problems for the site IIRC

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Did anyone else see the Michael Osterholm interview on Meet the Press this morning.  He’s one of the two medical experts that Chuck Todd interviewed in the first block.  I thought his interview was bizarre, because he seemed to be directly contradicting the other guest, but neither that guest nor Chuck ever pushed back at him. 

This seemed to me to be his message:
- Enhanced testing and tracing as futile at the point
- It is not possible to test any more than we are now anyway
- Social distancing restrictions will not substantially reduce infections, only “nibble at the edges”
- We cannot control the spread of the virus at all, and it will inevitably infect 60-70% of the population
- We “need a plan” to get from 5-15% infection rate to 60-70%, though he never really clarified what the basic contours of the “plan” should be

Is this a respected person?  If so, what “plan” is he talking about? 

More generally, it is striking to me that medical experts never really challenge one another in any of these interviews, even when it is obvious that they hold very different beliefs and positions.  They rarely even try to clarify their differences or the assumptions that are generating them. They all just seems to speak as if they are agreeing with each other even when it is obvious they are not.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What is a "home open"?

It is when you sell your house and have a 1-2 hour inspection period for potential buyers.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/davidlparsons/status/1258988672084373505?s=21

[RINO Tom]

^ Ugh, wow.

[Dr. Arch]

^ Ugh, wow.

[Beet]

Did anyone else see the Michael Osterholm interview on Meet the Press this morning.  He’s one of the two medical experts that Chuck Todd interviewed in the first block.  I thought his interview was bizarre, because he seemed to be directly contradicting the other guest, but neither that guest nor Chuck ever pushed back at him. 

This seemed to me to be his message:
- Enhanced testing and tracing as futile at the point
- It is not possible to test any more than we are now anyway
- Social distancing restrictions will not substantially reduce infections, only “nibble at the edges”
- We cannot control the spread of the virus at all, and it will inevitably infect 60-70% of the population
- We “need a plan” to get from 5-15% infection rate to 60-70%, though he never really clarified what the basic contours of the “plan” should be

Is this a respected person?  If so, what “plan” is he talking about? 

More generally, it is striking to me that medical experts never really challenge one another in any of these interviews, even when it is obvious that they hold very different beliefs and positions.  They rarely even try to clarify their differences or the assumptions that are generating them. They all just seems to speak as if they are agreeing with each other even when it is obvious they are not.

He's very respected. Him and Marc Lipsitch at Harvard have been saying this since the beginning. The problem is, if they're wrong, then this kind of advice tends to become a self fulfilling prophecy.