COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[BudgieForce]

Am I the only person who legit thinks dine-in restaurants, malls, and theaters are done after this?

I highly doubt it. Unless I missed something, people still enjoy leaving their homes from time to time.

[BudgieForce]

The Oxford vaccine trials have started, they started injecting volunteers last week, they said in 6 weeks we can expect results of efficacy and side effects, if it works they plan to try to get emergency authorization

Which would mean it'd be ready by the end of the year. Hopefully we can avert or heavily reduce the chances of a second outbreak.

Edit: I dont actually know that. Just guessing from other things i've read.

[BudgieForce]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

I'd advise against reading too much into todays numbers. It was a holiday on a Sunday. Let's see what Monday and Tuesday bring.

[BudgieForce]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

I'd advise against reading too much into todays numbers. It was a holiday on a Sunday. Let's see what Monday and Tuesday bring.

Yes but we still had a LOT of tests for Sunday, 278k which is a lot

Yeah. There are definitely positive things today. Just pointing out Sunday's tend to be less representative on the whole. Not to mention it was Mother's day.

[BudgieForce]

I thought the conclusion was that instead of being reinfected, some people just felt better and had a low enough viral load where they'd get a false negative back.

[BudgieForce]

Sunday is always the day you have to remain skeptical about. But it's hard not to see the positive trends.

[BudgieForce]

Sunday is always the day you have to remain skeptical about. But it's hard not to see the positive trends.

We have 422k tests done today a record

I have seen some speculation it might have been partly due to a backlog from California. But haven't seen it confirmed anywhere.

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

Not totally surprising. Down here in Florida, almost all retail is open again. My sister is still furloughed from her restaurant though.

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable.  

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

They're not new jobs though. You can't go from 3% unemployment to 16% unemployment in a month and then gloat about the proceeding recovery the next month.

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1268885282172145670

The rapid, V-shape recovery is here.  Hard to see unemployment above 8% by November (which is what it was in 2012).

I doubt it recovers that quickly, especially since the report says unemployment would be at 16% but 3% were misclassified. Also, 2012 saw the economy recovering in Obama's term vs 2020 where the economy got worse under Trump. Not comparable. 

If Trump can tout +1M new jobs every month until November, it's going to be a net electoral benefit to him.  This is the scenario Obama and other top Democrats are the most concerned about. 

They're not new jobs though. You can't go from 3% unemployment to 16% unemployment in a month and then gloat about the proceeding recovery the next month.

Tell that to the folks who are getting their jobs back.  It's a true recovery for hundreds of thousands of American families, and the associated rise in payrolls will boost spending in other parts of the economy too.   

These better-than-expected numbers indicate a stronger recovery than expected.  To think Trump will not benefit from beating the expectations curve is the epitome of partisan hacking.   

To think a potentially faster recovery absolves Trump's of his absolute mismanagement of the situation. Newsflash, Trump still has positive ratings for his handling of the economy. His numbers are in the toilet because 100,000 people are dead and the country is on fire.

[BudgieForce]

Probably kills momentum on a second stimulus.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1278729930264711170

https://mobile.twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1274489632886075398

I have no words.

[BudgieForce]

I think a few of you are overthinking it. Walter Reed probably requires visitors wear masks. It's probably as simple as that.

[BudgieForce]

Anecdotal, but at the University/Hospital my mother works at, nearly a thousand high risk workers will be given the Moderna vaccine.

That’s excellent news!  Do you know the timetable for the study?
I would hope that if it shows preliminary effectiveness, they would be able to expand to more high risk groups before approval to be made available to the general public.

The only thing I've read about the Moderna vaccine is that they hope to have information to share by Thanksgiving.

[BudgieForce]

Walmart will require all customers to wear masks beginning Monday, July 20.

Thoughts and prayers for the poor WalMart employees who have to enforce this. Hope we don’t hear about any more senior citizens stabbed or punched by angry 35-year-olds.

At the very least, we'll get more viral videos out of it.

[BudgieForce]

Oxford reporting that they are on track for a September release of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Where are you seeing this?
I am eagerly awaiting the full results of their Phase I trials to be published in the Lancet tomorrow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner?utm_source=url_link

The lead researcher seems to think they could be done with human trials by September. And AstraZeneca can have the vaccine ready and out for public consumption in September.

It sounds very hopeful, but it doesnt seem like anything is written in stone.

[BudgieForce]

Per Marketwatch: White House COVID press-briefings return starting tomprrow at 5pm EST (ft. DJ Donald J. Trump)
 

Why bother?

In fact, I'd argue him restarting the briefings is tantamount to admitting his administration has failed to contain the virus the first go around.