COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[pbrower2a]

Oh please. Quit being such an apologist for thugs. Oh goodie! They didn't actually cock and point their guns at legislate arguing in favor of keeping the shut down! Nothing to see here! Totally business-as-usual compatible with the open expression and exchange of ideas in the legislature why nonviolent needs!

Some of us carry guns. Yes, all the time. Just because you don't like guns doesn't mean carrying guns is a threat ... let alone terrorism. Or is the terrorism that they opposed the suspension of our fundamental rights and breathed in public without wearing a mask. I've seen so much hateful invective directed at people who support the Bill of Rights these past months its kind of hard to tell why we should "muh killz the terrist protesters!" Quit being an apologist for a comment clearly calling for violence against protesters. What do you think "treat them like terrorists" means in this context?

When you say you carry a gun "all the time"...do you carry a gun to the airport?  To a courthouse?  
I am completely shocked that anyone is allowed to take a gun into any state capitol.

Haven't flown in years. Dont carry at court because thats illegal, but they also have metal detectors and armed deputies to assume responsibility for your security. Im a government lawyer that takes people to court for taxes, utility debts, and code violations; I also prosecutes doggie death penalty cases ... I do get death threats from time to time. I was also the victim of stalking last year. So sorry my life isn't as boring as others in this thread.

And good for you. I get it, honestly I do. Also we decided not to get a gun despite concerns about some of the people I prosecuted and their families, but I get it that you do.

But there's a fundamental difference between you are responsible and, generally incidental - - I hope that it will always be the case - - handgun possession for protection, versus what these yahoos clearly did in attempt 2in intimidate or worse elected legislators.

The fact that Michigan state law regarding the capital is so effed up that it is legal to carry a semi-automatic into the bleachers of the State House chamber itself oh, but one can't bring a protest sign into the building - - I'm not exaggerating, a number of individuals protesting Medicaid Cuts in the building in the last year or so were arrested for carrying signs in the building contrary to law - - does not change how deplorable the clear and dangerous signal they actively attempted to send to legislators is.

Such regrettably reflects the relative power of the interests of the guns-and-ammo business and of course welfare recipients. Money does not simply talk in our system: it shouts opponents down.

[It’s so Joever]

Inslee extends stay at home order until the end of May at least.

https://katu.com/news/local/stay-home-order-to-be-extended-through-at-least-may-31-in-state-of-washington

Governor Jay Inslee has just announced that the Stay Home, Stay Healthy order will be extended until at least May 31.

Inslee said he will officially announce that the stay home order will be extended on Monday, May 4.

Gov. Inslee did deliver some good news for Washingtonians. Inslee has announced a Four Phase plan to reopen businesses in Washington.

Inslee said, "We have not won this fight against the virus."

Gov. Inslee said we are currently in Phase One of his plan to reopen businesses.

Inslee says we still will have a ban on large gatherings. He says his office continues to hear about gatherings with many people that are not permitted in our current Stay Home order.

Inslee said the following will be allowed in Phase 2:

Camping
Small gatherings of five people
New construction
Barbershops and Salons
Restaurants at 50% capacity
Inslee said the following will be allowed in Phase 3:

Gatherings of 50 people allowed
Restaurants can hold 75% capacity
Gyms and Movie Theaters can open at 50% capacity
Inslee says there will be 'at least' three weeks between phases so that the spread of the virus can be analyzed.

I usually like Inslee, but this is too far for Washington. If anything, East Washington should be reopening now while several other states in the South (And Colorado) should not be reopening.

[It’s so Joever]

Just out of curiosity, is it just the death numbers, or also the case numbers that are being fudged with in Florida?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Just out of curiosity, is it just the death numbers, or also the case numbers that are being fudged with in Florida?

Right now it's just death number is but people are starting to suspect it's also case numbers

[Seattle]

I usually like Inslee, but this is too far for Washington. If anything, East Washington should be reopening now while several other states in the South (And Colorado) should not be reopening.

I have seen you say this multiple times, but in fact, the county with the most number of cases per capita is Yakima - on the east side of the Cascades (second is essentially a tie between Snohomish and Franklin - also in Eastern Washington). In fact, infection in Eastern Washington have slowed the least, definitely compared to Western Washington outside of King/Snohomish, but also the core metro.

The state is till averaging ~200 cases a day and 15 deaths... We're close, but not quite there. Inslee made the right call.

[It’s so Joever]

I usually like Inslee, but this is too far for Washington. If anything, East Washington should be reopening now while several other states in the South (And Colorado) should not be reopening.

I have seen you say this multiple times, but in fact, the county with the most number of cases per capita is Yakima - on the east side of the Cascades (second is essentially a tie between Snohomish and Franklin - also in Eastern Washington). In fact, infection in Eastern Washington have slowed the least, definitely compared to Western Washington outside of King/Snohomish, but also the core metro.

The state is till averaging ~200 cases a day and 15 deaths... We're close, but not quite there. Inslee made the right call.

Good to know, although I was thinking of reopening the more rural parts of Washington as a testing ground first because of less population density and the fact that rural areas are going to inevitably be even more hard hit by the lockdowns than urban areas. In general, rural areas should be reopened first unless there is a rather large outbreak that isn’t present in urban areas.
I still think 200~ cases/day for a state with the population of Washington is probably at the point where they can reopen slowly, but I would honestly rather have governors be too cautious than the other way around.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, New Mexico placed under strict lockdown

All roads into the city have been closed, businesses must close between 5 p.m. and 8 a.m. and vehicles can only carry two individuals, according to the governor's order. The governor is recommending that residents remain at home except for emergency outings and those essential for health and safety.

Lujan Grisham invoked the state's Riot Control Act to authorize these temporary restrictions. The move comes after the mayor requested the governor to declare a state of emergency in the city, according to a letter made public by the governor's office.

[GoTfan]

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

Well what the Oxford vaccine they already were working on a MERS vaccine and we're doing pretty good with it so they just used the base and made it for covid-19 vaccines take a long time because usually they don't have the funding and they don't have enough people to trial test them on but during the pandemic when you have unlimited funding and volunteers you can rush it

[GoTfan]

Newsom says that he is planning to lift some stay at home order restrictions soon.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/california-reopening-newsom/index.html

Bad idea.

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

Well what the Oxford vaccine they already were working on a MERS vaccine and we're doing pretty good with it so they just used the base and made it for covid-19 vaccines take a long time because usually they don't have the funding and they don't have enough people to trial test them on but during the pandemic when you have unlimited funding and volunteers you can rush it

I still won't be getting it injected until it's been trialled properly, which 5 months cannot do.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Newsom says that he is planning to lift some stay at home order restrictions soon.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/california-reopening-newsom/index.html

Bad idea.

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

Well what the Oxford vaccine they already were working on a MERS vaccine and we're doing pretty good with it so they just used the base and made it for covid-19 vaccines take a long time because usually they don't have the funding and they don't have enough people to trial test them on but during the pandemic when you have unlimited funding and volunteers you can rush it

I still won't be getting it injected until it's been trialled properly, which 5 months cannot do.

A perfectly reasonable position. But here in Ameristan, where anything that smacks of "math" or "reason" is taken as some sort of insult to the cultist zombies and their moronic orange leader, we're going to be injecting people en masse as soon as there's something to stick in their arms that will work as an excuse for Deplorable Dictator Don to try to salvage the oligarchy"open the economy". And if it doesn't work and kills a bunch of people? Hey, they've been telling us 'vaccines are bad' for years anyway, right?

[Calthrina950]

Newsom says that he is planning to lift some stay at home order restrictions soon.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/california-reopening-newsom/index.html

Bad idea.

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

Well what the Oxford vaccine they already were working on a MERS vaccine and we're doing pretty good with it so they just used the base and made it for covid-19 vaccines take a long time because usually they don't have the funding and they don't have enough people to trial test them on but during the pandemic when you have unlimited funding and volunteers you can rush it

I still won't be getting it injected until it's been trialled properly, which 5 months cannot do.

You seem to be extremely pessimistic about this pandemic. And you're not the only one. While I certainly don't think we can take this lightly, and must impose all precautions that are practical and reasonable, I also think that the people who are on the extremes-those who believe this pandemic constitutes the end of human society as we know it, and those who believe that it is all a hoax-are operating beyond the realm of plausibility. Worrying too much about this isn't good for your mental health, and it isn't good for that of others.

[GoTfan]

Newsom says that he is planning to lift some stay at home order restrictions soon.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/california-reopening-newsom/index.html

Bad idea.

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

Well what the Oxford vaccine they already were working on a MERS vaccine and we're doing pretty good with it so they just used the base and made it for covid-19 vaccines take a long time because usually they don't have the funding and they don't have enough people to trial test them on but during the pandemic when you have unlimited funding and volunteers you can rush it

I still won't be getting it injected until it's been trialled properly, which 5 months cannot do.

You seem to be extremely pessimistic about this pandemic. And you're not the only one. While I certainly don't think we can take this lightly, and must impose all precautions that are practical and reasonable, I also think that the people who are on the extremes-those who believe this pandemic constitutes the end of human society as we know it, and those who believe that it is all a hoax-are operating beyond the realm of plausibility. Worrying too much about this isn't good for your mental health, and it isn't good for that of others.

I'm pessimistic because I've been alive long enough to know that hoping for anything is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Great news. Australia is nearly ready to get back to normal programming.



Australia 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 3,491 – April 3
Recoveries added to curve – 275

Australia and NZ are now talking about elimination. It appears that the virus is nearing that point in New Zealand, South Australia, Western Australia, ACT and NT.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is saying that restrictions will be eased if people download the COVID-19 tracking app which tracks people's locations in relation to known positive cases.

But winter is coming, so no one knows what is going to happen in the colder weather. Our two coldest states have just entered much lower temperatures and are not shaking the virus yet, so there is a chance this could come back.

In terms of countries entering the first quarter of this curve (sub-exponential growth), we have Russia, Brazil, Peru, India and Mexico.

Singapore and Japan have calmed from their 'late' peaks and are on the decline in Active case numbers.

[QAnonKelly]

I still don't understand the logic behind the Oxford 'vaccine'. In 6 weeks they know if it's effective? And they know it's safe by September?

Then why, pray tell, do we spend years on vaccines?

I'm still of the belief that we'll never get one.

From my understanding, it’s a vaccine for another corona virus that got really far into development  that’s been repurposed so they’re able to move more quickly.

[emailking]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

The new case numbers are not very important.  Since we are only identifying a small fraction of actual infections, this is mostly a function of testing, and we had a record number of new tests today.

Deaths are a much more important stat, especially deaths outside of New York, since the decline in NYC can be attributed to progress toward herd immunity.

[emailking]

Yeah that gets mentioned every few pages it seems. I think new cases are important. Things aren't simmering down as long as we have 30K+ new cases every day.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/1 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24:

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25:

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1 (Today):

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

[Koharu]

I'm pessimistic because I've been alive long enough to know that hoping for anything is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

That isn't a feature or benefit of age. Please, seek professional help. Your comments indicate that you need help. The world is nowhere near as dark and horrible as you see it. Your falling back to worst possible scenarios is not healthy and you can get help.

[Tintrlvr]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

The new case numbers are not very important.  Since we are only identifying a small fraction of actual infections, this is mostly a function of testing, and we had a record number of new tests today.

Deaths are a much more important stat, especially deaths outside of New York, since the decline in NYC can be attributed to progress toward herd immunity.

Testing is also a lot higher now than a few weeks ago.

Still, some states, such as Illinois, are showing worrisome increases that are not entirely explained by expanding testing.

[beaver2.0]

See, I can't take these protesters seriously because in pretty much every picture you see them emphatically not adhering to the President's guidelines on social distancing.  I can understand a philosophical argument against the lockdown, but protesting it without taking any precautions against the virus is ridiculous.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

The new case numbers are not very important.  Since we are only identifying a small fraction of actual infections, this is mostly a function of testing, and we had a record number of new tests today.

Deaths are a much more important stat, especially deaths outside of New York, since the decline in NYC can be attributed to progress toward herd immunity.

We are not trying to get herd immunity through infections! I am not sure why you keep repeating this line. Any effort to accomplish herd immunity would be hugely destructive even if we could somehow limit infection just to people we suspect are more resilient. We are trying to stall transmission until there's a vaccine so we don't overwhelm hospitals. That's it.

The decline in New-York-City-area deaths, which you are attributing to herd immunity, also just so happens to coincide with a massive and successful lockdown. Are you saying that's a coincidence? What do you think the true death rate of this disease actually is?

[anthonyjg]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

The new case numbers are not very important.  Since we are only identifying a small fraction of actual infections, this is mostly a function of testing, and we had a record number of new tests today.

Deaths are a much more important stat, especially deaths outside of New York, since the decline in NYC can be attributed to progress toward herd immunity.

We are not trying to get herd immunity through infections! I am not sure why you keep repeating this line. Any effort to accomplish herd immunity would be hugely destructive even if we could somehow limit infection just to people we suspect are more resilient. We are trying to stall transmission until there's a vaccine so we don't overwhelm hospitals. That's it.

The decline in New-York-City-area deaths, which you are attributing to herd immunity, also just so happens to coincide with a massive and successful lockdown. Are you saying that's a coincidence? What do you think the true death rate of this disease actually is?

I think he’s working off an assumption on those antibody studies that 25% or so of New Yorkers have or have had the virus.

[Tintrlvr]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

The new case numbers are not very important.  Since we are only identifying a small fraction of actual infections, this is mostly a function of testing, and we had a record number of new tests today.

Deaths are a much more important stat, especially deaths outside of New York, since the decline in NYC can be attributed to progress toward herd immunity.

We are not trying to get herd immunity through infections! I am not sure why you keep repeating this line. Any effort to accomplish herd immunity would be hugely destructive even if we could somehow limit infection just to people we suspect are more resilient. We are trying to stall transmission until there's a vaccine so we don't overwhelm hospitals. That's it.

The decline in New-York-City-area deaths, which you are attributing to herd immunity, also just so happens to coincide with a massive and successful lockdown. Are you saying that's a coincidence? What do you think the true death rate of this disease actually is?

I think he’s working off an assumption on those antibody studies that 25% or so of New Yorkers have or have had the virus.

It is also true that cases and deaths are declining significantly in New York, while they are mostly just flattening (or even still increasing somewhat) in places like Illinois and Massachusetts that have had basically the same policies in place as New York for the same period of time. It does feel like something different may be happening in New York. 25% immunity, particularly concentrated in vulnerable populations likelier to be exposed (people still commuting by subway or working in healthcare fields, e.g.), would definitely be high enough to start making a real dent in infections all by itself.