COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[HagridOfTheDeep]

SARS-COV-2 might be here to stay as it becomes endemic.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-may-be-here-to-stay

Projections by specialists suggest that periodical physical distancing measures may become a necessity if the new coronavirus becomes a seasonal occurrence.

In the study paper, which appears in the journal Science, the researchers explain that it is likely that the new coronavirus will become endemic, with infections ebbing and flowing throughout the coming years. The same happens with cold and flu viruses.

This being the case, the authors suggest that physical distancing may become an intermittent requirement until 2022.

To understand how transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 might evolve, the researchers looked to the dynamics of two seasonal coronaviruses: beta-coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. These are two common human coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms.

According to the team’s simulation, infections with SARS-CoV-2 might also become a seasonal occurrence, as is the case with the other beta-coronaviruses that infect humans.

Because there are currently no vaccines or targeted treatments for infections with the new coronavirus, the researchers project that on-and-off physical distancing may be a necessary measure over the next couple of years. This is to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.

“What seems to be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments are intermittent [physical] distancing periods,” says Kissler.

The investigators emphasize the need to strike a balance between healthcare capacity and economic resources on a case-by-case basis.

On the one hand, they say that some transmission of the virus may create a level of herd immunity, which could reduce its impact.

“By permitting periods of transmission that reach higher prevalence than otherwise would be possible, they allow an accelerated acquisition of herd immunity,” notes study co-author Prof. Marc Lipsitch.

On the other hand, too-stringent physical distancing measures might mean that humans cannot establish herd immunity at all, which would make a resurgence of the virus particularly problematic.

According to the study paper, “longer and more stringent temporary [physical] distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in epidemic peak size.”

In other words, this study wants to move the goalposts so far we can't even see them anymore.

What idiot needs a study to tell them that the virus isn't going to magically disappear after we've "flattened the curve?" You talk about moving the goal posts. Lol. We are living in a reality where there is a hugely contagious virus waiting in the wings that has the potential to totally collapse health care systems everywhere if it's left to its own devices. There is no "normal" until a vaccine is sufficiently produced and administered. The year 2022 does not seem like a stretch.

Our provincial health officer has observed that average social contact has been reduced to 30% of what it was before in BC. Our government's modelling suggests we can open back up to 40-60% of the social contact we had before while still keeping the situation under control. Basically, that's the best we'll be able to get until a vaccine becomes available. If we let loose and get to 70%, we're looking at a return to sustained exponential growth.

There is a small margin of error and no easy solution. Accept this reality.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm crossing my fingers desperately that this is just Beet being Beet.

But even Beet being Beet has proven to hold unappreciated wisdom at times, so consider me a little scared.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Duh.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

2nd highest number of cases today.

Deaths are down some though.

The new case numbers are not very important.  Since we are only identifying a small fraction of actual infections, this is mostly a function of testing, and we had a record number of new tests today.

Deaths are a much more important stat, especially deaths outside of New York, since the decline in NYC can be attributed to progress toward herd immunity.

We are not trying to get herd immunity through infections! I am not sure why you keep repeating this line. Any effort to accomplish herd immunity would be hugely destructive even if we could somehow limit infection just to people we suspect are more resilient. We are trying to stall transmission until there's a vaccine so we don't overwhelm hospitals. That's it.

The decline in New-York-City-area deaths, which you are attributing to herd immunity, also just so happens to coincide with a massive and successful lockdown. Are you saying that's a coincidence? What do you think the true death rate of this disease actually is?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Mask wearing will probably be a common thing, it is what stops most asian countries from suffering as badly from the flu, when I used to work at a restaurant a lot of the asian customers would come in wearing masks

It won't be a common thing after vaccines (and/or effective treatments) roll out. I'm worried about the meantime, after we enter the neutral state after the wave is over when we have 100--300 cases per day nationwide. Wearing masks during that period is still hysteria and I won't have it.

Hear that, everybody? Let's all stop taking a sensible measure to protect our most vulnerable loved ones from a highly contagious deadly disease because Grasr00ts just won't have it.

JFC.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

BC has done remarkably well compared to almost all other jurisdictions, but I'm worried too. The weather has gotten a lot nicer and people are definitely starting to throw caution to the wind. Beaches have been packed and people are definitely out and about.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Behind North America’s Lowest Death Rate: A Doctor Who Fought Ebola


 Profile on Dr. Bonnie Henry a Canadian health official from British Columbia being praised for her campaign against Covid-19. Including fast distilling of information to doctors and health officials, quickly working up a test and testing procedures and commandeering nursing/care homes to stop the death rates there from spiraling out of control.

Henry is the first to caution against complacency. “We don’t know what is going to happen with this virus,” she said at a recent briefing, where she underscored how the province could quickly lose all the gains it’d made by easing restrictions too far. “We need to hold the line.”

She is exceptional at her job. I will also say that officially, my province never even closed down non-essential businesses. The message was always that you could stay open as long as your establishment could reasonably maintain social distancing protocols. Many stores/franchises belonging to national/multinational corporations shut down anyway for other considerations, but they were not ordered closed (save for personal services requiring close physical contact).

That being said, I am quite nervous about the return to school that will happen on June 1st. We really don't know enough about how this virus behaves with regards to children, and social distancing will be out the window for kids younger than eight. Personally, I've been straight quarantining so I can stay with my boyfriend and his mom, who has cancer. Me going back to work is going to change everything. I'll be at an unknown but higher level of risk that will basically make it impossible for me to see them. I'm not very happy, especially when you consider that they're really only sending us back as trial run for whatever ridiculousness is going to need to happen in September.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262575447134568448

This is a good point.  I think we could reach a status quo where the smaller types of gatherings are mostly open (with some precautions) while large gatherings such as sporting events are still a no-no until a vaccine is available.

Concerts are a no no, but sporting events could reduce capacity and seal off some seats in an irregular pattern to create some distance while also allowing fans to attend.

Except seating isn't even half the issue. You got queuing up in ticket and admission lines, contact whatever people leave their seats, waiting in concession stand lines, going to the restroom, Etc. Not to mention the price per seat when only one seat every 6 ft is for sale is going to be astronomical. I'm not that interested in reopening sporting events to put the maintenance staff Health at risk for increasingly wealthy fans to be able to watch live.

I'm not saying any solution has to be foolproof, but this one is full of major problems.

There's going to be maybe no more than 200 cases per day nationwide by september, I see no reason why any measures are necessary at all at that point in time.

That is absolutely not a sure thing, especially if normies throw caution to the wind and interpret "reopening" as "back to normal."

[HagridOfTheDeep]

U. of Cambridge scraps face-to-face lectures for entire 2020-21 academic year.

Talk about unnecessary.

I don't understand such a gesture either, especially since the past few months have revealed the flaws to an entirely online approach. Many colleges and universities will not be able to survive if they stay online for the next academic year. Students are not willing to fork over thousands of dollars in tuition for such classes. But at the same time, it's going to be hard to implement social distancing safeguards for such campuses. There has to be a solution that addresses both issues.

Honestly, I think the fact that so many universities can move many of their programs online so easily speaks to the fact that they're seriously overcharging in the first place.

I understand that lab courses can't be replicated online, but if, ultimately, there is little difference between the in-class and online deliveries of, say, a history course... how can we justify paying $6000 a year for what essentially amounts to "being talked at." This was a problem I had before COVID.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/sfpelosi/status/1263601262567686144

what a cuck

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I mean, what the actual f**k

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1264978727416578048

Well, is this permitted under North Carolina regulations?

After almost the whole country was placed under house arrest for 2 months, we can't very well claim that most of the regulations are too lax.

But, admittedly, it would be different if North Carolina said you can't have big sports events like this.

It's certainly clear to me that many people have grown tired of the restrictions which have been put in place. And I now firmly believe, more than I did before, that political polarization in this country has been intensified because of this virus. Many people who were deeply distrustful of government before this happened-and who tend to be on the right or to vote Republican-will become further reinforced in those habits as a result of this. Distrust of the mainstream media, which in their view "overhyped" this crisis, will become yet more prevalent. And memories of this will persist long after this is over.

This may be true in general, it comes with the important caveat that the situation might actually be opening the eyes of seniors to Trump's level of ridiculousness. As Republicans under 65 entrench, it pushes away seniors who just want to live.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1277295367827136514

So basically there are a number of states that are now experiencing a situation where spread of the virus will be impossible to control without a return to severe lockdowns or a substantial infection rate. Excellent job, America.

Since no one will lock down again at the scale that's necessary, looks like you folks are completely screwed. Trumpism at its finest. Don't expect deaths to stop at 200,000.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1281253710413402115

I’m not so sure I agree. Here in British Columbia, our phenomenal chief public health officer has been in control of the situation the whole time with clear, thoughtful, consistent, and cautious messaging. Our lockdown brought new cases down to an average of 10 per day, and, generally speaking, people are very good at carrying on life with an appropriate degree of caution. I have been going out more and more to run errands, and everywhere I go I see the vast majority of people taking the pandemic seriously. While it is true that not everyone wears masks, people keep their distance here, stores are not crowded, and the spaces have been modified for maximal protection.

I am not saying we are clear of a future spike, and I do understand that luck played a role in our ability to get new infections down to 10 per day, but it has allowed us to buy time and give us a good “warning window” if things start to go south. Exponential growth starting at 10 per day is a lot more manageable than exponential growth starting at 100 per day. If things do start to go wrong, I am confident we could make a legitimate effort to counteract the trend without having to go back into total lockdown for months on end. This is because of our low numbers, because of the extremely strong communication we get from our public health team, and because of our own prudence following the advice of Dr. Henry. I don’t mean to sound holier than thou, but there don’t appear to be many places in the US that have all three of those advantages going for them.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The number of cases today is Florida is the highest both in terms of actual number, and in terms of cases per capita at .72 cases/1000 (which breaks a record set by Arizona on July 1 with .67 cases/1000).

I wish we got more data on what % of people being tested and turning up positive were asymptomatic.
Because the reduction in CFR in states with high case counts today continues to be dramatic, even accounting for any lag in deaths.

Florida now has around 270,000 confirmed cases.  New York hit the mark of 270,000 on April 24.  
By April 24, New York had already had 21,000 deaths, while Florida has only 4,200 deaths, a reduction in CFR of 80%.

It would be really informative to get a breakdown of how much of this 80% reduction in deaths is due to greater testing, how much is better treatment, how much is demographics, etc.

I think it’s much more likely that the Deep State has falsified the tests.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Lockdowns do not necessarily just “delay the inevitable.” If new cases get down below a certain threshold, there is buffer time to prevent the dangerous kind of exponential spread that makes the difference between “under control” and “out of control.” Cases can be isolated and contact traced. It requires politicians and normies to care about the pandemic and keep up their efforts with certain precautions, but I’m a believer that it can be done.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

This is disastrous and shameful:

On Sunday, Britain recorded 650 new cases of covid-19. Japan recorded 373. Germany had 138. And South Korea, a model in handling the outbreak, identified just 44. Add those four numbers up and you get 1,205 new confirmed cases. The populations of those countries put together is roughly identical to the population of the United States.

And yet, Sunday, the United States recorded 58,349 new cases — by far the highest number in the world. Compared with those peer countries with a similar combined population, the new caseload in the United States is roughly 50 times worse.

Trump continues to argue — and his Fox News acolytes continue to parrot — the false notion that these differences are due to testing. They are not. Britain has performed 178 tests for every 1,000 residents. The United States, by comparison, has conducted 129 tests for every 1,000 residents. Crucially, while test numbers steadily grow in the United States, some other countries are now not keeping pace — not because they aren’t testing enough but because they just have fewer sick people to test.

The comparison is even more damning for the White House because the United States had some major advantages going into the pandemic. America is a rich country with low population density. While South Koreans are packed together with 529 people per square kilometer and Britain has 275, the United States has just 36. Arizona, which has one of the worst state outbreaks, has just 23 people per square kilometer. Those differences make physical distancing easier. Moreover, the dominance of car culture in the United States makes it easier to avoid crowded public transportation. And yet, due to an epic failure of Trumpian mismanagement, those advantages were squandered.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/13/trumps-performance-covid-19-looks-especially-bad-compared-with-rest-world/

We have seen the sh*thole and it is the U.S.

Good lords. My boss, who is currently weathering out the storm in Taiwan (no community cases on record for a long time now), just messaged me to see how I was doing. The rest of the world is flabbergasted at this disastrous failure.

Taiwan had their pandemic under control by April.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1289633359681839105

He is taking this crisis so seriously now! Those press conferences sure are doing the trick!

I can't even imagine the internal conversation that happens in someone's head when they see Fauci testify, read Trump's tweet, and determine that the former host of the Celebrity Apprentice is a more trustworthy authority on public health. The sheer brainsickness just blows my mind.