2020 New York Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Anyone want to explain wtf is happening here.

This makes zero sense.

For the record if NC and OH went fair - I’d be okay with it. But…. they didn’t. So WTF?

Ohio did stay fair.

[Devils30]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

Because Latimer’s demand to get as many white liberals as possible in his district make it harder to flip NY-17. The general consensus is that Lawler has a very good chance at winning re-election under the current lines because of Rockland’s exploding orthodox population (unlike D’Esposito or Williams who are widely seen as goners).

This map isn’t worth anyone’s time. Just leave the 2022 lines in place.

[Tekken_Guy]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

[Virginiá]

God bless New York Democrats. Their dedication to delivering concrete results for their Republican constituents is inspiring!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

In what universe is this even remotely Latimer’s fault?

Because Latimer’s demand to get as many white liberals as possible in his district make it harder to flip NY-17. The general consensus is that Lawler has a very good chance at winning re-election under the current lines because of Rockland’s exploding orthodox population (unlike D’Esposito or Williams who are widely seen as goners).

Except, that’s not what happened.  This map doesn’t even help Latimer, it helps Bowman.

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

You are not.  This is the first NY Assembly map and almost certainly DOA in the State Senate

[Smash255]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

[GALeftist]

My comment was less about any particular map and more about his mere physical presence in Albany. His input should be zero.

[Tekken_Guy]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

Could definitely backfire on them. Imagine they go for a Hochulmander, it gets tossed out instead in favor of keeping the special master maps, and Trump gets a trifecta because Brandon Williams wins re-election by 100 votes.

[Horus]

So what I'm gathering is that, broadly, removing Bowman is far more important to NY legislators than netting Dems a couple seats?

[GALeftist]

So what I'm gathering is that, broadly, removing Bowman is far more important to NY legislators than netting Dems a couple seats?

I honestly think the big lesson so far is that the NY Assembly is full of cowards. I think the Senate might be making a more aggressive map. We shall see.

[MillennialModerate]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

Could definitely backfire on them. Imagine they go for a Hochulmander, it gets tossed out instead in favor of keeping the special master maps, and Trump gets a trifecta because Brandon Williams wins re-election by 100 votes.

Imagine Trump gets a trifecta because NY Dems brought a water balloon to a gun fight …

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what I'm gathering is that, broadly, removing Bowman is far more important to NY legislators than netting Dems a couple seats?

The Assembly’s proposed map literally helps Bowman.  This is such a weird and nonsensical narrative

[Tekken_Guy]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

Could definitely backfire on them. Imagine they go for a Hochulmander, it gets tossed out instead in favor of keeping the special master maps, and Trump gets a trifecta because Brandon Williams wins re-election by 100 votes.

Imagine Trump gets a trifecta because NY Dems brought a water balloon to a gun fight …

A 221-214 R house with LaLota, Malliotakis, Lawler, and Molinaro all winning?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So what I'm gathering is that, broadly, removing Bowman is far more important to NY legislators than netting Dems a couple seats?

I honestly think the big lesson so far is that the NY Assembly is full of cowards. I think the Senate might be making a more aggressive map. We shall see.

Or this is like FL and they are trying to create a mirage of being "fair", only for them to meet with the senate and come up with an aggressive gerrymander.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's political theatre ya'll! It's going to be an aggressive gerrymander

I certainly hope so. Democrats need to play dirty and shoring up Suozzi and pretty much just netting NY-22 for sure was really not worth any of this.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

[David Hume]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

[Oryxslayer]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

[Brittain33]

Complete boredom until a Senate map drops.

[Devils30]

Bringing this from 21-5 Biden to 20-6 is also dumber. At least make NY-1 something like Biden +6 and NY-19 Biden +8 or so.

[David Hume]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

R already said they won't sue this map. If they go more aggressive, they will get sued, and will lose for sure since they clearly violated the law.

[SilverStar]

State Senators already said that they don't want a map that is similar to the current one,very unlikely that they will agree to vote for this map.
It's usually the Assembly surrendering to the Senate and not the opposite.

[SilverStar]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

R already said they won't sue this map. If they go more aggressive, they will get sued, and will lose for sure since they clearly violated the law.

Lol no,the Court is 4-3 Dem hack and they aren't going to struck down any Dem map.
You are delusional.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

R already said they won't sue this map. If they go more aggressive, they will get sued, and will lose for sure since they clearly violated the law.

Nah, this map is probably DOA.  Democrats will likely win whatever BS lawsuit Republicans try to pull given that judicial activist DINOs no longer control NY’s highest court.

[Dan the Roman]

If they're not going to make any changes to NY-17 and Rockland really is a ticking time bomb due to the growing Orthodox population, it might make more sense to just fully shore up Lawler. Rockland, Orange, and Sullivan Counties put together are just slightly more than the population of one CD and they narrowly voted for Trump. Doing this would also shore up Pat Ryan and allow for a bluer seat to be drawn to get rid of Molinaro.

Another thing I was thinking about -- there is a lot of talk about what part of Brooklyn and/or Manhattan to put with Staten Island...but if Dems really want to go aggressive, couldn't they just split Staten Island? Put some of it with Brooklyn (connection via the Verrazzano-Narrows bridge) and some of it with Lower Manhattan (connection via the ferry).

The would have to nuke the 2% law to do that. This would be evidence for partisan motive for COA. I am not sure if the house want to risk that.

This proposal already goes above 2% for the districts they change. They are de facto ignoring it.

R already said they won't sue this map. If they go more aggressive, they will get sued, and will lose for sure since they clearly violated the law.

Lol no,the Court is 4-3 Dem hack and they aren't going to struck down any Dem map.
You are delusional.

Court is 3-1-3.

But yes they could probably go more aggressive than this. Re submitting the Hochulmander is a direct insult to the 4 judges who felt it was gerrymandering

The vote on the Hochulmander was 5-2
On the special master it was 4-3