2020 New York Redistricting

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e7ccc24-4f4b-45be-9f1f-95a4328c45b3

Tried my hand at a full 23-3 NY map. All districts except 24 are Biden + 10 or greater (NY-24 comes in at Biden + 9.5). I tried to make it relatively compact considering the severity of the gerrymander.

NY-01 can't be made into an effective D seat without a snake, because of weird LI political geography.

I tried to make NYC fair from a VRA standpoint but that wasn't my focus and some VRA issues can be solved without touching any of the more marginal seats outside the city.

Aoc ):

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

What's NY-17?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Personally I don't expect a 23-3 map; it requires a lot of messing around with NY-25 and NY-26 and a lot of ugly lines which I can't see the entire caucus agreeing to. A 22-4 map, on the other hand, is very feasible and is probably what I'd bet on, since weird lines need to be drawn in the east for good incumbent protection anyway and two flips downstate don't really disadvantage any incumbents. Here's what I hope the map might look like:






(I know more about NY than PA, but still not that much, so it's possible I've done something very wrong here. Also don't pay too much attention to the NYC lines, I attempted to keep the districts basically similar but it's very possible that I double bunked incumbents or something. All the upstate Democrats definitely live in their districts though.)

Anyways, this map was drawn to mostly minimize county and town chops, except in Long Island, where the lack of political geography makes that basically impossible. Rochester and Buffalo get their own Safe D seats in exchange for an additional R pack upstate. All blue districts are Biden+10 or more: the least blue district is Delgado's new (and substantially changed, it now goes from his home in Rhinebeck out to Binghamton) 19th at Biden+10.2. Malliotakis is probably doomed in her new Biden+13 seat that goes up to Cobble Hill, and the new Biden+11 NY-01 should be an layup in most years for the Democrats. Katko's NY-24 gets fed all of Tompkins to make the district Biden+15; if he still wins, especially with Trump doing his utmost to keep him from doing so, he's honestly earned the seat. Other districts of note are Sean Patrick Maloney's NY-18, which goes from his home in Cold Spring up to take in the city of Albany and Paul Tonko's NY-20, which takes in much of the rest of Albany County and goes up to his home in Amsterdam and all the way up to Plattsburgh. This map also holds up for 2016, although a few districts are within 3 points.

Thoughts?

Do you have the DRA link for this?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1476731839234691073?s=20

NY continues it's slow march towards the D-mander.

IIRC there is no constitutional process for when the commission fails to agree on a map? The redistricting amendment put up last November was supposed to establish that, but it failed. So what happens now?

I think either a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature or some judge. A judge drew their current map.

Either way, it is worth noting that a hard gerrymander is gonna be extremely difficult to pull off here. Democrats just barely have 2/3rd majority in the Senate and I'm sure some people will have parochial concerns stopping them from going all in. Worth noting before Dems on this thread get their hopes up.

Ehh, yes and no.  I think we’ll definitely get a Democratic Staten Island seat b/c most Dems don’t really care about its parochial concerns.  Long Island shouldn’t be a problem and I imagine most Long Island Dems want a Democratic house seat where they have a shot at advancing rather than getting washed away in the 2022 wave (Zeldin’s seat probably becomes Dem-leaning).  

No one from downstate is gonna care how upstate feels about being carved up and I imagine most upstate Dems are going to want House seats that give them (or their allies/patrons/etc) a shot at advancement.  

The real issue is that the ripple effects of a strong gerrymander may cause NYC/downstate folks to get cranky.  IIRC Jamaal Bowman already implied months ago that he has no intention of being a team player with this and while I doubt he has all that much pull in the legislature on his own, other NYC Dems definitely do and there’s no way he’s going to be the only problem child in the delegation with respect to redistricting.  

Also, Delgado has a top-tier A-list opponent and definitely needs to be shored up which is fine as long as it is done efficiently.

Mondaire Jones and Tonko could be problems because their seats have to get redder if we want to shore up Delgado and Maloney

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Spuxs map is a good example of what we could get(it double bunks SP Maloney/Jones so that doesn't work) but it fits what this guy is saying nonetheless

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

No it's just the state house dems that are stupid right?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I thought it was a foregone conclusion Dems would win in court but like everything else related to decisions on the electoral system - sounds like it’s going the other way

Hopefully this is like your prediction in GA

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1517271516144189442

I question that. Election dates can be changed. I also doubt the Court of Appeals will stay all of this. If it does not stay, then the question is whether the Dems will submit a new map. This is a classic example of pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. They should have ceded a couple of more seats to the Pubs, but as hogs they did not. NYS all too often, attracts the dumbest and most cynical and most corrupt. The intellectual class in the state is too busy engaged in changing the nation and the world to bother with something that is degrading as the cesspool that it NYS governance. I do know based on my buddy lawyer system, that when it comes to drafting legislation, its lawyers can't draft their way out of a paper bag. Even the lawyers seem to be patronage positions for the dumbs.

1. The. Filing. Deadline. Has. Already. Passed
2. Even if your correct, Dems will just rig the commission like the GOP did in OH, so a "Fair Map" isn't happening regardless. Sorry Torie

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What are options for d's here?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems should appeal to SCOTUS and get them to say it's too late. Don't roll over!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Then Dems should threaten to impeach the court! I don't care what they have to do!!!!!!! This map must be used in 2022!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

PACK THE COURT

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sorry for posting so much in this thread, but Dems need to figure out something ASAP. This is unacceptable!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I will say this.. congrats to Torie. You were right all along and we should have listened to you lol!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why haven't Hochul, legislative dems reacted to this ruling yet on social media?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So the only two hard gerrymanders the Dems have left really are Illinois and Oregon.   Everything else is pretty mild. 

New Mexico?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I have an idea, and it may hurt us in some states but it's better for us honestly......

Work with GOP groups and argue to SCOTUS that only commissions and legislatures can draw maps and not special masters! This would hurt us in PA and NC but NC SC is going to flip in 2022 anyway so it really is moot. PA is likely to have a GOP governor and the court could also flip sometime in the decade.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The Democrats should just ignore this legally meritless ruling and print primary ballots for the legislature map’s district lines

Make the Judges enforce their own ruling!

I wish I could find the Chanel Oberlin clip when she says she's ignoring the verdict lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Queen Kathy, do something!!!!!!!!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So much for winning the house back in 2024. Thanks Cuomo!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who was it who suggested that just because justices have partisan affiliations, to assume that they will go full hack on partisan issues when you get high enough up the judicial food chain is a mistake?

Did you see the accolades I gave you earlier?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

torie, do you think dems will try to squirm their way out of this (not that they would necessarily be auccessful) or just give in

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I will say, the one silver lining about a south brooklyn R seat is it could get rid of Jeffries(not saying it will, but it's a possibility)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffries/status/1520048654190624768

He's Salty because as progressivemoderate explained, he could lose to a progressive lol!
I'm waiting for AOC to respond, she's totally screwed in q neutral map