2020 New York Redistricting

[Tekken_Guy]

I've been playing around a bit with a fair NY 25 seat map again, and I think I prefer this to my previous effort.





link

5, 6, and 8 are majority Black. The 13th and 14th are majority Latino. The 4th and 7th are minority plurality seats (Asian and Latino, respectively), while the 15th is a white plurality but very diverse seat.

I'm not in love with upstate. I made an alternate option which has a somewhat more logical districts in Northern NY, Syracuse, and the Hudson Valley in exchange for a rather brutal split of the Albany area if that's something y'all'd prefer:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Who would run in each seat?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

No. It is geographically impossible to take her out. Her district is quite peninsular.

[Tekken_Guy]

In any event, I have continued tweaking my map a bit. I realized I didn't take into account some incumbent residences and had accidentally drawn Delgado, Sean Patrick Maloney and Tonko out of their districts. That is fixed now. I also made some edits to get Sean Patrick Maloney a (barely) D PVI district, which I think would work.

There are other edits the Democrats could make to improve the map at the margins (for example, putting the city of Auburn in the Syracuse-Ithaca district), but those would not make a huge difference and I think there will be at least some interest in drawing a map that isn't too stringy. (The only obviously gerrymandered district upstate is Delgado's; the rest are quite fair.) I think this is overall a solid map.

(Image is of upstate only; downstate hasn't changed except a few precinct moves on Long Island).



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5d7c1d5-5e85-4431-b6fa-ae526d4cbe69

My questions about this:
-Where would Katko run here? Does he stay in the Syracuse seat or does he jump over to redder territory.
-What would Tenney do?
-Are Delgado and Maloney vulnerable with this map?
-Does Garbarino run in 1 or 2? Would Zeldin drop back down to the house now that Cuomo is out?
-Is 2 winnable for Republicans

[Tekken_Guy]

Tenney's probably going to have to carpetbag into Reed's seat if she wants to stay in congress.

[Tekken_Guy]

GOP gerrymander of the Empire State
10 Trump districts. The district composed of Onondago+Madison+Oneida is also very likely to elect a Republican in a neutral year  given how more Republican that area is downballot. Monroe and Tompkins counties are cracked.
In 2014-style conditions this map could elect as many as 12 Republicans.

Yeah, this is a massive Dummymander. 26-0 Gillibrand in 2018.

[Tekken_Guy]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

[Tekken_Guy]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

You heard it here first, I promise you. I was wondering how McAllister could rule on a map today, particularly given that Cervas needs to prepare a report, and there have been an avalanche of comments, every one of which Cervas reads and has said that he will consider. From all of that McAllister himself may request changes. I believe he has the final say, not Cervas. So when he considers relief to some intervenors as to calendar issues, he mentions that it is possible the map might not be adopted by his own May 20 deadline. And he mentions that prospect on - you guessed it, May 20. If I were a betting man, it ain't happening today. And the odds that there will be some map changes just went up.

I don’t trust them to be on time but I also doubt they’d be terribly late. Prolly Monday if not today.

Also I doubt the top line partisanship changes much; it’d look really bad for the court if suddenly they made a map with like 10 Trump seats. The districts will def be cleaned up though as the map was quite messy in some areas.

Biggest change when it comes to partisanship is if a swingy or R leaning Orthodox district in south Brooklyn is created (more likely Asian centric district), however, in that case NY-11 prolly becomes D leaning anyways

The thing is by creating an Orthodox seat requires the elimination of one existing seat in the city, and that may lead to one less minority district because the white seats (NY-10 and NY-12) are too large to be cut. In the Republican map, relocating NY-10 led to a lot of Manhattan excess that couldn't fit into NY-12 and was stuffed into NY-07 instead, weakening its Hispanic percentages.

[Tekken_Guy]

I assume Biaggi still runs for NY-3 even though it no longer crosses the Sound, right?

She has no chance at winning a primary without Bronx/Westchester support and at Biden+8 she would likely lose in November.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does anyone have a list of the Trump Biden numbers by district for the new map?

NY-01: Biden + 0.0
NY-02: Trump + 1.5
NY-03: Biden + 8.5
NY-04: Biden + 14.8
NY-05: Biden + 65.2
NY-06: Biden + 30.6
NY-07: Biden + 63.1
NY-08: Biden + 54.1
NY-09: Biden + 51.8
NY-10: Biden + 72.0
NY-11: Trump + 7.2
NY-12: Biden + 72.1
NY-13: Biden + 77.7
NY-14: Biden + 57.9
NY-15: Biden + 70.4
NY-16: Biden + 44.1
NY-17: Biden + 10.1
NY-18: Biden + 8.5
NY-19: Biden + 4.7
NY-20: Biden + 19.6
NY-21: Trump + 12.6
NY-22: Biden + 7.6
NY-23: Trump + 17.7
NY-24: Trump + 17.6
NY-25: Biden + 20.2
NY-26: Biden + 23.8

Correction - NY-01 is actually Biden+0.2. I distinctly remember it isn’t as close as AZ-06.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Dems get a favorable ruling the key is party unity in the legislature in getting 2/3's to reject four different maps so they can draw their own. I'm not too confident in that happening tbh, I could see the IRC submitting a map that moves most of the swing seats to the left a bit and Dems accepting it.

Democrats only need a majority to shoot down the maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

The Dem areas of NY-04 are a lot more densely packed than NY-03's. It's possible that they make NY-04 a Dem sink that goes into Queens while NY-03 is made a toss-up seat that D'Esposito runs in.

[Tekken_Guy]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

Maybe it could happen on a state-by-state basis. For example, New York can offer to reinstate the court map in exchange for North Carolina doing the same.

Or Illinois can pass a fair map if Texas follows suit.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems would never agree to a 17D - 9R map, even if those 17 D seats are all relatively safe. Dems would probably prefer the Nassau config closer to what it is today with making NY-03 into a double-digit Biden seat by exchanging some precincts in Queens and not taking NY-04 for granted in the future.

There's also no reason for Democrats to not make at least half an attempt to go after Malliotakis, even if it doesn't end up being one the more extreme configs we see using the Gowanus Expressway as a shortcut to hyper liberal parts of Brooklyn.

Also Dems would try to shore up at least 2 of the central valley seats if not all 3.

I do not expect NY-4 to significantly change in the redraw. It's a blue enough seat, Dems just did not adequately campaign there in 2022 and D'Esposito is a very strong candidate. If the GOP hangs on here it's probably a sign of Democratic decline with Jewish voters, something that may happen soon but less likely with Biden or a mainstream Dem on the ballot.

I’m interested to see how NY-03 looks. If it resembles its 2010s incarnation then it’s safer for Ds than the current version, but not much different from NY-04’s partisan lean.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

What's the compromise?  The only thing of significance the R's would give up here is NY-22.  Everything else is drawn completely in their favor.   The Long Island seats are a straight up Republican gerrymander and would probably be against commission rules.

They gave up a seat in Nassau and NY-18.

[Tekken_Guy]

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

If the 20 includes two Biden+14 districts in Nassau, then neither are safe, unless they go well into Queens to get to Biden+20 or greater.

[Tekken_Guy]

Code:

There are a few procedural limitations that make this more like Florida than NC.

In NC there was NO clause in the state constitution addressing gerrymandering and the court left in place the county rules for the legislature.

New York does have a Constitutional prohibition against partisan gerrymandering in addition to a mandated commission and two-thirds requirements for overriding it.

Florida does as well, and the NY SC like the Florida one is making clear they will interpret those clauses in the most limited way possible that maintains deniability, but they cannot simply state, as the new NC majority did, that they have no say. Hence that segment about the Chinese community.

I don't think the Court of Appeals is asking for a compromise between Democrats and Republicans. But they are asking for a compromise between Democrats and the law, namely for the Democrats to provide something that the court sign off on for non-partisan reasons.

That 26-0 map would not stand even with this court for instance. And given the 2022 results, and non-events in Ohio, Democrats might settle for something closer to 20-3-3 rather than a "solid" 22-4.

The original Hochulmander was a tied delegation waiting to happen anyway.  Something like 20/6 could be stable for the decade and at least as justifiable in court as Florida.

If the 20 includes two Biden+14 districts in Nassau, then neither are safe, unless they go well into Queens to get to Biden+20 or greater.

One could argue something simillar about the Florida map. It's 20-8 in the sense that 20 seats clearly lean R, and 8 seats clearly lean D, but there are still a good handful of both R and D leaning seats that are semi-competatitve (FL-04, FL-07, FL-09, FL-13, FL-15, FL-23, FL-27) in the right circumstances.

In a normal year, Ds should be able to hold both Biden + 14 LI seats; 2022 was a perfect storm of State Dems being unpopular, Rs seriously investing in the state for once, Rs having a fairly strong slate of candidates, and Dems falling asleep at the wheel.

On the other hand it's very plausible they won't remain Biden+14 seats anymore after 2024 if Schumer's numbers become the baseline. Schumer probably barely won or even lost those seats in 2022.

Also do you think the impending redraw was partially a reason why R's got rid of Santos?

[Tekken_Guy]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

[Tekken_Guy]

I doubt Democrats are going to do the Throgs Neck crossing of NY-03 again like Wasserman has in his map. That seat was drawn specifically for Alessandra Biaggi and she almost certainly isn't running again this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is the commission pledging not to change the old court map?

Objectively, the existing map is pretty good. I can see why they’d want to keep it similar to what it is rather than letting the legislature draw a disgusting gerrymander.

The Republicans may want it but the Dems on the commission may try to punt it to the legislature like Ohio's Republicans did.

One can only hope; the existing map is a piece of crap!

Why do you think the current map is bad? If you have actual reasoning, I’m more than willing to hear it out.

Until there is a national ban on gerrymandering (which I strongly support) any New York congressional map that isn’t a strong Democratic gerrymander is awful.  Anyway, beyond that, I genuinely believe the 2022 NY redistricting case was wrongly decided (thankfully, that decision has been effectively reversed).  So I take issue with it being imposed at all even beyond partisan considerations.    I’d also argue that it is a soft-Republican gerrymander rather than a fair map which is pretty ridiculous to have for New York.

The New York State Counstition has proviosons banning gerrymandering; if it's outrageous for the republican to subvert those provions in Ohio and Utath why is it ok for democrats to do in New York ?

Utah I will grant you,  but the Ohio map turned out alright for Democrats and has now been locked in. They would have 3 seats in a full gerrymander perhaps 2 if OH Rs went full Illinois D or NC R.

Realistically the fight came down to whether restrictions on partisan gerrymandering placed an affirmative obligation for proportionality or partisan fairness. I think that's ambigious and it's worth noting the current NY map was not drawn to do so. The proportionality was almost accidental. It has 20 seats more D than the nation and in 2020 probably would have gone something like 19-7 and 21-5 in 2018.

The Ohio map could be better. OH-07 and OH-15 should be swing seats if not outright Democratic-leaning on a fair map. Also OH-09 and OH-13 would be stronger for D’s.

If the New York map was in place the previous decade then yeah that makes sense. NY-01 may have stayed blue in 2014 as both Bishop and Israel are from that district but Zeldin isn’t. Without Israel in NY-03 Suozzi could have jumped into congress immediately. NY-22’s trajectory in the 2010s would be interesting as Buerkle, Maffei, Katko, Hanna, Tenney, and Brindisi would all be from that seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Is there anything stopping the Democratic legislature from doing the same thing they tried to in 2022, now that they have a favorable Supreme Court, by just rejecting the commission's map? Because if not, I can't see why they wouldn't take that route.

1. Procedure. We now know they have to ping-pong a bit.

2. Bare majorities. Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote in the Senate, and 2 in the Assembly. And there are no legislative maps to hold over recalcitrant members, and there are enough Orthodox Jews sitting in Trump seats to sink any remap.

In short, this guy can sink any map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder

What about making NY-11 an Orthodox Jewish GOP sink district in exchange for 1,17,19,22 getting much bluer?

I don’t think Malliotakis would be happy with that. She would want Staten Island to stay the center of GOP power there rather than have it moved to the Orthodox neighborhoods in Brooklyn.

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

You really think a supermajority will just rubber stamp a neutral map?

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.