2020 New York Redistricting

[Devils30]

Dems should:
1) Split Staten Island, this would make NY-11 safe and let Rose return to Congress
2) Make NY-1 an ultra ultra red district on LI even if it looks silly, will help push NY-2 into bluer areas, give Ds another gain.
3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.
4) Make Maloney, Delgado safer, give Brindisi something for a return to Congress.

[Devils30]

3) Crack Buffalo a bit, Higgins is well entrenched and could survive a less blue district.

It seems like it's maybe possible to get two nominally-D WNY seats... I was able to do it in a way that wasn't too ugly by putting Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee in one seat, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and most of Allegany in the other. The first seat included Buffalo west of Main, the South Campus of UB, the Northtowns due east of Grand Island, Lancaster, and Alden, and the second included the remainder. The problem is that both seats average a margin of 0.20% for Dem over Rep according to the DRA's composite score. That doesn't seem safe enough, incumbency aside.

I would rather be aggressive and risk bigger losses in a bad year but be able to offset the GOP's gerrymanders coming in FL, TX, GA.

[Devils30]

Love this map, I would get extremely aggressive as this can offset a lot of what the GOP does. I probably would make NY-1 a GOP sink though, seems a bit risky for 2 and 3 if it isn't in a bad year.

[Devils30]

Dems drawing a 23-3 map, gaining in IL, MD and winning back a couple in CA is how they hold onto the House. NY gerrymander is really a must do for them and don't discount how much of the GOP it can offset if done right.

[Devils30]

Dems have nothing to lose doing the 23-3 map. They're at risk in upstate seats like NY-19 anyway and they lose nothing by making 1 LI red seat and 2 upstate ones. More likely it would be 22-3-1 with the 1 a Biden district that can flip if Katko lost to a MAGA challenger (which def can happen).

[Devils30]

My Long Island map

Districts D +9, +12, +12, and +13

Can you make a 24-2 map or 23-2-1 without VRA issues?

[Devils30]

Dems need every seat they can get. I would go for an all out map, Dems shouldn’t worry about the GOP’s 236th seat in a wave, they need the maps most likely to help the party win in a D+2-3 type environment.

[Devils30]

Since the Rs are going to push the VRA, Dems should as well. Push some of Queens, Brooklyn into LI districts and look into the idea of bacon stripping NY-1, NY-2 and getting BOTH seats instead of packing the GOP into a very red 2nd. Dems have a better chance at 23-3 this way than against Katko who isn't losing with a Dem President.

[Devils30]

A proposal so modest there will never be proposed a proposal more modest in the history of modest proposals:



2012/2016 PVI:


President 2020 Results:

Dems should go for it, what the hell do they have to lose? In a D+2 type year it could potentially save their majority.

[Devils30]

Ironically this is likely a 23-3 map in a 2018 scenario.

Hurts Dems for 2022 but this makes House very winnable for them in a neutral type of D+2 generic ballot year.

[Devils30]

This is kind of like a Dem commission map similar to NJ in terms of things. Yes the GOP can open the floodgates with a R+4 2022 election but the Dems would win 21 of 26 seats in an even popular vote year.

[Devils30]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.

[Devils30]

I don't think this will be terribly close- Westchester Dems are heavily Jewish and not part of the far left wing.

[Devils30]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

[Devils30]

With DiFiore stepping down, the Dems should try to bring this case again and get their 22-4 map for 2024.

I guess it depends what can happen earlier: this or the Supreme Court essentially ending court rulings over redistricting (which would be pretty ironic since they're a court ruling over redistricting- but obviously they can do whatever they want-so tough t**ties!).

The Supreme Court ending court rulings over redistricting would be a gift to the NY Dems.

Yes, but if they rule on state legislatures being in charge of Electoral College votes as well, they're doomed to never win the presidency again. I'd still rather this ruling not happen at all.

Then that would just mean Dems would need to win more state legislatures.

Sure, but that's nearly impossible given the geography of most states.

Dems should be able to win the PA and MI houses in a half decent year with the current maps.   

Nothing prevents commissions to draw state legislative maps. Or courts to invalidate state legislative gerrymanders even if they can’t touch congressional.

[Devils30]

Everything will be moot if SCOTUS decides in Moore v Harper that state courts can't overrule state legislatures when it comes to redistricting.

The NC decision is going to render this moot and it will be dismissed by SCOTUS.

[Devils30]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

[Devils30]

I wonder what they'll do for Long Island. It seems like it's just fundamentally more Republican now. The current map really isn't bad for them there. Weakening NY-04 might allow Despacito to survive, Garbarino is pretty strong, maybe LaLota's seat could be flipped if LI reverts to its pre-2021 partisanship. Suozzi will probably flip NY-03 though because of Santos stink.

At this point they should concede NY-02 and NY-01 in order to make NY-03 like Biden + 13.

There's no reason for Ds to concede NY-1 if they get to redraw. Compared to original map, it only makes sense to concede NY-11 into a Staten Island pack and even then if the court will let them get away with it, why not go for the 22-4? That said, I would make NY-4 bluer from the originally drawn map.

Staten Island is easy to pair with inflexibly D+80 areas of Brooklyn, some of which did not swing against Hochul at all. There's no reason for them to concede it. Doing 3-1 in LI might turn into 1-3 though, which is why 2-2 could be the way to go. Move Despacito's seat to Biden+16, Santos to Biden+17, both will flip. Creating 3 Biden +10 seats in LI is very risky at this point.

3-1 on LI is very possible, Dems have to pack NY-2 a little bit better.

[Devils30]

Lawler, Brandon Williams and Molinaro are likely cooked after this ruling. I also expect Dems to make NY-1, NY-3 considerably bluer and maybe even pursue the 22-4 map with NY-11 blue leaning. NY-4 probably stays similar.

[Devils30]

Yeah, if there isnt a 50 state solution then Ds have to gerrymander NY like the Rs in TX and FL.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems will never agree to this in a million years. Why make Lawler safer when you can eliminate him with a Biden +15 seat. No way Dems will give Molinaro a red seat either, I expect something like the original NY-19 that was around Biden +10. Even NY-1, the original version was like Biden +12. Basicalyly the court gave Dems the go ahead to gerrymander and they should try for at least 21-5 if not 22-4. D'Esposito would get 55-60% in that NY-3 but Dems have no reason to help him, even if he's a very mainstream center-right politician.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b48dace-ddd4-4244-baf9-4abce0ad0c97

So here’s a compromise map I’d bring to the table if I was the GOP. This map:
-Concedes NY-03 (now NY-04) as a Biden+30 sink for Tom Suozzi consisting of North Hempstead, the blue core of Hempstead, and parts of Queens. In exchange, D’Esposito picks up most of the rest of Oyster Bay, making his new NY-04 (now NY-03) a narrow Trump district that he should easily win next year.
-Swaps out Westchester for Orange in NY-17, making the seat a Biden+0.5 seat that is pretty much safe for Lawler and trending R due to Orthodox Jews. Meanwhile, turns NY-18 into a seat that goes up the eastern border and into Ulster County, at Biden+18 Pat Ryan never has to worry about a competitive election again.
-Has NY-19 trade Tompkins for Oneida, making it a seat Trump won by high single digits, whereas NY-22 is now a seat Biden won by almost 20 points.

No other seats are touched. R’s have two marginal Suffolk County seats, a Trump+7 NY-11, and three upstate R sinks, as before. D’s get the rest.

Dems would never agree to a 17D - 9R map, even if those 17 D seats are all relatively safe. Dems would probably prefer the Nassau config closer to what it is today with making NY-03 into a double-digit Biden seat by exchanging some precincts in Queens and not taking NY-04 for granted in the future.

There's also no reason for Democrats to not make at least half an attempt to go after Malliotakis, even if it doesn't end up being one the more extreme configs we see using the Gowanus Expressway as a shortcut to hyper liberal parts of Brooklyn.

Also Dems would try to shore up at least 2 of the central valley seats if not all 3.

I do not expect NY-4 to significantly change in the redraw. It's a blue enough seat, Dems just did not adequately campaign there in 2022 and D'Esposito is a very strong candidate. If the GOP hangs on here it's probably a sign of Democratic decline with Jewish voters, something that may happen soon but less likely with Biden or a mainstream Dem on the ballot.

[Devils30]

So how will Suozzi get shored up in the redraw?

The current config in Long Island is quite favorable to Republicans. In my default LI setup, Garbarino would just get more of Massapequa and NY-03 would be pushed to Biden +13.

That is if the Dems are ok with 2-2. If they want 3-1 it will be tougher.

Wonder if the court will allow Dems to do something like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::214627af-cca0-43b7-a38e-2f1965568dee

1: Takes in some of the bluer parts of current NY-2
2: Takes in Massapequa and becomes a GOP sink
3: Shores up Suozzi a bit, becomes 2026 proof
4: Similar to current version, DeEsposito in trouble regardless
11: Takes in lower Manhattan instead of the old 2022 version with Park Slope. Dems less likely to get a problematic squad type in primary with this configuration.
17: Bye bye Lawler
18: Shores up Ryan by a few points
19: Probably won't happen but sliding part of Albany into this would finish Molinaro
20: Ideally Tonko would take a redder district because as an incumbent he is 100% safe.
22: Most variations have it getting Syracuse, Utica. Some slightly bluer.
 

[Devils30]

Is there anything stopping the Democratic legislature from doing the same thing they tried to in 2022, now that they have a favorable Supreme Court, by just rejecting the commission's map? Because if not, I can't see why they wouldn't take that route.

1. Procedure. We now know they have to ping-pong a bit.

2. Bare majorities. Democrats cannot afford to lose a single vote in the Senate, and 2 in the Assembly. And there are no legislative maps to hold over recalcitrant members, and there are enough Orthodox Jews sitting in Trump seats to sink any remap.

In short, this guy can sink any map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simcha_Felder

What about making NY-11 an Orthodox Jewish GOP sink district in exchange for 1,17,19,22 getting much bluer?

[Devils30]

I would take my chances with the current map over this. Dems should reject it and draw their own 21-5 or 22-4 map. Or at least draw 19-3-4 with the 3 being Biden +8 or so.