2020 New York Redistricting

[Smash255]

What happens to Kathleen Rice? Does her district get eliminated?

Doubt it, the district that gets eliminated is likely going to be upstate.  The estimates for the state itself was off quite a bit from the actual census, so the county data obviously was as well and might be difficult to tell the impact on where until we get further numbers.

[Smash255]

Is it too much to ask for Elisa Stefanik to get redistricted out.

You could push Tomko's district a bit further north, to take in Schulerville, but she would just run in the remaining north county district.

[Smash255]

My main problem with the new map is in the area I live in and where I am looking to buy, I would be stuck in the GOP LI district and could basically walk to the 1st (as it is I'm within even closer walking distance of the 3rd now)

[Smash255]

What happens to Palumbo?

NY SD-01 is Biden+4.5, Previously Biden+1.2

Why didn’t they just pack the district?  Palumbo would still win the new district.

If you look at the maps, they choose to sink other Republicans. Despite Biden winning a few seats, the only Suffolk county Democrat is Cross-County SD-05's and SD-08's James Gaughran and John Brooks. Of course the Dems hold all the Nassau seats, but that is why they focusing on locking down those seats. In this instance they choose to nuke the successor to SD-03 and ensure the successor to SD-06, which slid further into Suffolk with SD-08's departure from the county, was as safe as possible. So SD-01 kinda got whatever leftover D areas are there.

Assuming they all run for re-election, based on the new maps, Thomas would likely run in the 56th, Brooks the 62nd and Gaughran the 45th.  I would go from Thomas's districts to Brooks's district.  

Also do we know if this numbering scheme is correct?  I went with what was on the DRA link and does seem to be an odd numbering scheme.

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

Important to note that both chambers passed a very slightly modified congressional map, with only a handful of census blocks swapped which has no effect on the overall partisanship or racial makeup of any district.

Hopefully it is near the CD-1, CD-2 border in Nassau Co...

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1488986515476779009

Important to note that both chambers passed a very slightly modified congressional map, with only a handful of census blocks swapped which has no effect on the overall partisanship or racial makeup of any district.

Hopefully it is near the CD-1, CD-2 border in Nassau Co...

The changes were two 0 population census blocks being swapped in NY-10 from what I can tell.

Had a feeling it was something like that. 

[Smash255]

Jackie Gordon who ran in NY-2 in 2020 and initially planning to run there again has announced she is running in NY-1.  She lives in Copiague and is in the new 1st district.

[Smash255]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1526186498474778625
Waiting.

Inasmuch as it was posted in the morning, that squib contains no information actually. I am going to walk the dog. Cervas has a tough job drawing the state senate map with all those  arcane requirements that sent me screaming to the exits. So he might be under the gun. So it is time for the pack to go foraging.

At least for Congress, he has at least one splendid template to work from to save him a lot of time.

I would be in the 3rd under this proposal.

[Smash255]

Anyone else find it weird how Biden did slightly better in this iteration of district 2 than 3?

Do you have a link for the 2020#'s?   I'm seeing the 2016/2020 #'s in which was slightly better for Biden in 3 than 2.

[Smash255]

The good news for Dems is even if the maps change, Cervas has already put forwards what he believes is fair from a partisanship standpoint so it’s not like the May 20 map will suddenly create 9 Trump seats or smtg.

I guarantee there will be lots of comments about south Brooklyn and I think the final map makes significant changes but still doesn’t create the fabeled Orthodox seat, though possibly does try and consolidate Asian voters into NY-10 more.

I also see a lot of work around the edges when it comes to how municipales are chopped. For instance I find the collection of precincts NY-02 takes in from Nassau quite strange. In NYC too there are a lot of jagged edges that will hopefully be a bit resolved.

Upstate, I don’t expect much to dramatically change other than possibly changing the Buffalo and Rochester config if it gets too many complaints and maybe the Central Valley districts will be cleaned up too, specifically when it comes to County chops. At the very least all upstate districts will likely retain their cores as there won’t rlly be any racial complaints.

Overall given the amount of competitive seats, this could be a bit of a trendmander either way. Most of the swing seats swung hard right in 2016 and then hard left in 2020. Both upstate and Long Island/Staten Island are politically very unique and often buck conventional wisdom which makes predicting these regions hard.

The NY-2 portion in Nassau isn't that strange when looking deeper into where it is split.  It is primarily portions of Plainview, Woodbury and a little of Syosset.   Primarily main roads are the dividing lines (Old Country Road, Seaford Oyster Bay Expressway, S Oyster Bay Rd, Northern Blvd)

[Smash255]

Has anyone been following the situation in NY-01 and NY-02?

As it looks, NY-01 is going to be the more Republican of the two which is a surprise. Would Andrew Garbarino run in NY-01?

Guess it is possible, but I doubt it.  He lives in Sayville, which granted isn't far from the border of the two, but it is in NY-02.   Neither the current NY-02 or his former Assembly district really cover any of NY-01

[Smash255]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/nyregion/biaggi-sean-patrick-maloney.html

Now she's gonna run in NY-17. I don't think this district has enough young people to be close for her. Putnam and Rockland are a big problem for squad types.

Hopefully she kicks his butt.

Its still a Biden +10 seat and she literally said defund the police. The GOP also got a pretty good recruit as well.

We could lose this seat either way(especially given you said they have a good recruit) so I don't care. Maloney deserves to lose for his shenanigans

Ehh running in the district your home is actually in, doesn't rank high on my shenanigans list.

[Smash255]

Why would the Dems not gerrymander? The court would not have reopened this case if they intended to stop the legislature from drawing its own maps.

From a technical perspective the court did not rule that the maps should be up to the Legislature, but rather that the maps drawn for 2022 were temporary since it did not go through the process of the Commission

[Smash255]

IMO everytime Dave posts a hypothetical NY he thinks the 2022 actions are guidelines for the most desirable outcome of presentactors. Which is a very fallacious since almost half the incumbents from that cycle have been replaced with new ones, changing the calculations at a most basic level.  

Like every NY-03 that was attempted back then crossed into Westchester cause Suozzi was out and the Legislators wanted Biaggi in. That's now been entirely reversed.  Or NY-22, which we just saw a good idea of what could be the final lines. Every Dem map then needed ithica to unseat Katko, ideally by bringing back Brindisi, but once he was gone Dems could afford to spread around the cities. And now the Legislators want John Mannion as well there, so the district goes westwards to follow his old senate seat.

Also there is zero chance they are screwing over Pat Ryan.

This won't happen but you wonder if Molinaro would run in NY-18 with Dutchess and Ryan in NY-19 with Ulster instead of the other way around.

Map is not completely horrible with a few minor changes. Williams and Lawler would be finished and 11 probably leans D. Giving Ryan a slightly bluer district might be enough with his incumbency edge and putting Ithaca in 19 can sink Molinaro. Dems in an average year open seat would have a shot at 2 and a 2018 wave is likely 23-3.

Also having the one Suffolk based Biden seat being a WWC South Shore seat is a bad idea for Dems IMO.

I would see LaLota running there (he lives in Amityville IIRC) and he would win.   I would be in the Nassau side of NY-2 FWIW in this

[Smash255]

The Assembly has posted a map. It will be interesting to see if the senate signs on or diverges like it seemingly wants to.


https://newyork.redistrictingandyou.org/?districtType=cd&propA=cong_nyirc_20240215&propB=cong_legamend_20240226&selected=-73.77410380901841,40.98053601355112#%26map=6.86/42.844/-77.03

Changes:

NY-03 withdraws from the south Oyster Bay/Massapequa region and some of those suburbs go in NY-02. NY-03 trades them for Huntingdon and NY-01 picks up the parts NY-02 east of Mastic Beach. Makes the marginal NY-01 go from marginally Biden to marginally Trump.

No changes to most of lower NYC, including not giving Jefferies the Barclay center or his house. Probably ensures his disapproval of this one as well.

NY-16 trades Wakefield for Eastchester and Co-op city. Despite the framing of this last night, this probably marginally hurts Bowman. This requires NY-15 dropping some of the south Bronx to NY-14.

Minor changes to NY-17 in Beekman town in Dutchess.

NY-18 still contains all of Orange unlike he IRC map. It gets the rest of Duchess but loses much of the interior of Ulster compared to both previous plans. This is to keep Ny-19 competitive, but one wonders in Ryan would aprove of the outcome coming from Ulster.

Upstate west of Binghampton is the same as the IRC map. East of it though there are changes. NY-20 compacts in Saratoga to grab Amsterdam. NY-19 now goes into Rensselaer.

I'm still in the 3rd and not in the GOP Long Island vote dump the way I was with the maps that was rejected in 2022

[Smash255]

Is there a reason they won’t go for a Hochulmander again after they were so willing to do it last time?

They might not be confident that the Courts would uphold the districts.  Keep in mind the Courts didn't say you are free to Gerrymander, but rather than the 2022 districts were temporary and it should go back to the IRC.    While the IRC drawn map was voted down, the maps drawn by the Legislature largely keep the framework of the districts the IRC drew.

[Smash255]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts.