2020 New York Redistricting

[Arizona Iced Tea]

That moment when Atlas realizes that NY Dems care more about keeping incumbents happy and aren't obsessed with making the map blue.

[GALeftist]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

Molinaro’s race is no better than a toss-up for him.

The new NY-19 is actually right of the old one at just Biden+4.4. Its trends are arguable – I'd argue that it's trending left, albeit not super quickly – but it's marginal enough that with incumbency and downballot lag I'd give Molinaro the edge.

[Tekken_Guy]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

Molinaro’s race is no better than a toss-up for him.

The new NY-19 is actually right of the old one at just Biden+4.4. Its trends are arguable – I'd argue that it's trending left, albeit not super quickly – but it's marginal enough that with incumbency and downballot lag I'd give Molinaro the edge.

I’d say it’s more of a Tilt R at best race than a Lean R one. He’s a lot more likely to lose than, say, Kean is. If Biden holds on I think he’ll be fine for most of the decade, but if Trump prevails he’s a goner in 2026.

[Oryxslayer]

That moment when Atlas realizes that NY Dems care more about keeping incumbents happy and aren't obsessed with making the map blue.

Nah, I think everyone who was drawing maps here was acting under these assumptions - or at least I was - but still found many ways to make things bluer. The incumbents had their ideal districts radically transformed two years ago after all. They barely even touched NYC where the incumbents are. Like Jefferies clearly wanted the Barclays center on the IRC map but didn't get it on this map. If the Incumbents mattered in this regard, it was to just not give them several hundred thousand new constituents. Which in that way, the legislature's lack of care likely mattered more.

[Dan the Roman]

The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway in terms of ratings Sabato is planning to move D'Esposito and Williams to lean D, which more or less makes sense.

Williams was the only one really targeted and clearly with the purpose of getting Mannion elected. He also had the worst result comparatively in 2022.

D'Esposito meanwhile didn't see serious changes to his district, but he of all 435 reps holds the district most out of line with his partisan identity, both D and R. It's also going to be a district Biden wins again barring some massive shift of voter behavior, by how much, who knows right now. And D'Esposito is acting less like his compatriots and more like past 'wave babies/driftwood.'

NY-03 and Suozzi meanwhile goes to Likely D. They cite his consistent strength and redistricting making the seat even better.

All other seats remain where they were. NY-17 and 19 are tossups now and stay that way. NY-19 changed a lot in redistricting but the result is going from 51.1-46.6 Biden to 51.1-46.7 Biden. Maybe IMO it's a tiny bit better for Molinario than on paper cause he has more Republicans in the east of the seat than the west, and the Dem will be from Binghampton. NY-01 is likely R and NY-02 Safe R. The Dems have a better challenger in NY-01 but IMO NY-02 should probably be at Likely R as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is probably the thing that angers me most not just about NY Dems but the Dem party nationally. So often Dems seem to care more about entrenching their own leadership and politicans than good policies or being team players.

Another good example was the 2022 midterms, where I made a thread discussing how I was angry that Dems were sinking so much money into certain seats that didn't need it just because they had a D incumbent, and barely invested in seats like NM-02, NY-22, AZ-01, and AZ-06 which were all winnable but lacked Dem incumbents. In the end, I was right and Democrats lost the House largely because they mostly focused on just incumbents.

It's sort of ironic that the party who relies on younger voters has an older caucus in congress, with a disproportionate share of the longest serving members.

Obviously I'm still a loyal Dem voter, but I can definitely understand the optics of why many dislike the Dem party and don't vote.

[Atlas Force]

The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.

Also Suozzi winning comfortably in the special may well have given NY Democrats the feeling that the 2022 environment is a one-off and that future cycles won’t be as bad for them.

[Tekken_Guy]

The national climate has also shifted from 2022. It genuinely looked like the GOP would have trifectas in Arizona and Wisconsin, and possibly even Pennsylvania, and a Senate majority that would block every Biden judicial nomination.

The midterms seem to have caused the fever to break with everyone. Yes North Carolina played hardball as both parties do in that state(the lame-duck D justices were retroactively invalidating referendums on the basis they were passed by legislatures elected on maps they had subsequently struck down but which had been upheld by the then-court) but even there they kept four Biden seats rather than going for 11-3 or 12-2 which would have been closer to the Hochulmander. Republicans in Ohio, with a Court majority in hand, could have gone hard for 12-3, but they chose to lock in what turned out to be a relatively soft gerrymander. Meanwhile, SCOTUS paved the way for D gains in Alabama and Louisiana, and it looks like Ds may get parity in Wisconsin.

In short, the Hochulmander is really a relic of a specific national climate in late 2021 and early 2022. One of relentless Republican advance and existential Democratic panic. It is, to put it simply, embarrassing in the same way that a 12-3 or 13-2 map would have been in Ohio. Or impeaching Justices would have been in WI.

This isn't a "deal" but the relative restraint of Republican actors in other states, by contributing to the lower temperature nationally, likely influenced NY Democrats. I suspect if the WI legislature had decided to trigger a constitutional crisis by impeaching the court and/or governor this may have gone differently.

The NY Courts are also part of the greater northeastern culture of soft merit selection which means they are very aware of climate. Rowen Wilson's December decision is much more conciliatory than his early 2022 dissent going out of his way to state that he is in no way reversing the findings of the previous majority on the merits, but merely demanding a legal process. At the end of which any product will need to comply with the constitution.

Also Suozzi winning comfortably in the special may well have given NY Democrats the feeling that the 2022 environment is a one-off and that future cycles won’t be as bad for them.

If that was the case why didn’t they go after LaLota harder?

[SilverStar]

Democrats are such pussies,they had the Court in their side.
Idiots.

[nerd73]

Ya'll are acting surprised that NY Ds made a corrupt bargain. It's New York, corruption is in their blood, and it's the same party that gave the world Andrew Cuomo and Kathy Hochul, and the IDC.

[MillennialModerate]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/GovKathyHochul/status/1762963107041755468?t=hDXp1VHuYYDIqdsa...

[David Hume]

That moment when Atlas realizes that NY Dems care more about keeping incumbents happy and aren't obsessed with making the map blue.

Nah, I think everyone who was drawing maps here was acting under these assumptions - or at least I was - but still found many ways to make things bluer. The incumbents had their ideal districts radically transformed two years ago after all. They barely even touched NYC where the incumbents are. Like Jefferies clearly wanted the Barclays center on the IRC map but didn't get it on this map. If the Incumbents mattered in this regard, it was to just not give them several hundred thousand new constituents. Which in that way, the legislature's lack of care likely mattered more.

Even Jeffries praised the new map, which only has marginal change to the commission map, which he criticized. Given all the effort NYDems made, it's really surprising that they only claw-backed 03 and 22.

[Nyvin]

This seems like a big waste of time and resources really.

[Stuart98]

Well this was ****ing pointless.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

I wouldn't say easier, but about the same.

[Minnesota Mike]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

That's not really true. Don't get me wrong Republicans do aggressively gerrymander most of the time but they did leave some seats on the table this last cycle. Texas is an egregious gerrymander but Republicans could have drawn a couple more Republican leaning seats in it if they didn't draw every incumbent an ultra safe seat. Republicans could also have been more aggressive in Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Kentucky if they wanted.

[Nyvin]

Well, if the Democrats can't flip NY-4, NY-17, and NY-22 then they probably don't deserve a House majority.   All three are double digit Biden seats with first term R incumbents, none of them particularly good ones either.  At least those three can offset the NC gerrymander if nothing else.

Molinaro's district will just end up being a 50-50 chance race that depends on the national environment more than anything.   The other six Republicans will win re-election easily.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

That's not really true. Don't get me wrong Republicans do aggressively gerrymander most of the time but they did leave some seats on the table this last cycle. Texas is an egregious gerrymander but Republicans could have drawn a couple more Republican leaning seats in it if they didn't draw every incumbent an ultra safe seat. Republicans could also have been more aggressive in Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Kentucky if they wanted.

Seats left on the Rs left on the table:

NH-02 (though in hindsight Dems might've still won it in 2022 anyways since it'd be like Trump +2 at most)

IN-01

MO-05

KY-03

KS-03 (tbf they tried and it's probably best they didn't try for a true 4-0)

NE-02

TX-29 though getting rid of it may have been too risky for VRA

GA-02 but again too risky with VRA

OH-01, OH-09, and OH-13. Tbf Rs drew the map with the thought they'd win these seats in 2022.

In an indirect way MD-06; Hogan could've tried to push for a map that created a R-leaning config of the seat.

Most of the seats Ds left on the table were from having toxic commission members in places like CO and AZ or just playhing redistricting bad like MD and NY where they passed overly weird maps.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

That's not really true. Don't get me wrong Republicans do aggressively gerrymander most of the time but they did leave some seats on the table this last cycle. Texas is an egregious gerrymander but Republicans could have drawn a couple more Republican leaning seats in it if they didn't draw every incumbent an ultra safe seat. Republicans could also have been more aggressive in Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Kentucky if they wanted.

Seats left on the Rs left on the table:

NH-02 (though in hindsight Dems might've still won it in 2022 anyways since it'd be like Trump +2 at most)

IN-01

MO-05

KY-03

KS-03 (tbf they tried and it's probably best they didn't try for a true 4-0)

NE-02

TX-29 though getting rid of it may have been too risky for VRA

GA-02 but again too risky with VRA

OH-01, OH-09, and OH-13. Tbf Rs drew the map with the thought they'd win these seats in 2022.

In an indirect way MD-06; Hogan could've tried to push for a map that created a R-leaning config of the seat.

Most of the seats Ds left on the table were from having toxic commission members in places like CO and AZ or just playhing redistricting bad like MD and NY where they passed overly weird maps.

They also sort of left NC-01 on the table, rather than turning it into another safe pickup like 6/13/14 it’s just a battleground.

Other seats D’s left on the table include:
-CO-03
-NJ-07
-NJ-02
-OR-05
-VA-02

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power

That's not really true. Don't get me wrong Republicans do aggressively gerrymander most of the time but they did leave some seats on the table this last cycle. Texas is an egregious gerrymander but Republicans could have drawn a couple more Republican leaning seats in it if they didn't draw every incumbent an ultra safe seat. Republicans could also have been more aggressive in Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Kentucky if they wanted.

Seats left on the Rs left on the table:

NH-02 (though in hindsight Dems might've still won it in 2022 anyways since it'd be like Trump +2 at most)

IN-01

MO-05

KY-03

KS-03 (tbf they tried and it's probably best they didn't try for a true 4-0)

NE-02

TX-29 though getting rid of it may have been too risky for VRA

GA-02 but again too risky with VRA

OH-01, OH-09, and OH-13. Tbf Rs drew the map with the thought they'd win these seats in 2022.

In an indirect way MD-06; Hogan could've tried to push for a map that created a R-leaning config of the seat.

Most of the seats Ds left on the table were from having toxic commission members in places like CO and AZ or just playhing redistricting bad like MD and NY where they passed overly weird maps.

They also sort of left NC-01 on the table, rather than turning it into another safe pickup like 6/13/14 it’s just a battleground.

Other seats D’s left on the table include:
-CO-03
-NJ-07
-NJ-02
-OR-05
-VA-02

Tbf they genuinely tried with OR-05, it's just 2022 sucked.

I don't think there was ever much they could do with VA-02 because of the commission unless you want to argue they should've never allowed the commission to exist in the first place, in which case they cou;d've gone like 9-2.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Man, I just suck at making predictions don't I?

[SilverStar]

I still don't get why they wasted our time,at least make NY-11 Trump+1 or something

[Stuart98]

Man, I just suck at making predictions don't I?

Well usually we predict that rational actors will do things that make sense, I don't think anyone predicted that Democrats would commit themselves to this fight for over a year only to decide on the eve of victory to just go home without doing anything substantial.