2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my fair map of VA. 6D-4R-1C seats, so in a good year for the Dems, the map could be 7D-4R and in a good year for the GOP it could be 6R-5D. Based on 2020 Prez stats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a74d088c-b320-47f5-a105-dcda5c850c95

The overall partisan balance is good, but that looks strongly like a Dem gerrymander of Central VA (to make VA-07 Likely D) and a GOP gerrymander of NOVA (VA-11 leaves Fairfax and splits Prince William to keep VA-01 and VA-05 Safe R).

You can draw a cleaner map that ends up 5D/4R/2 Swing, but it would leave Spanberger and Wittman with nowhere to run and give Wexton a swing seat that goes from Loudoun to Charlottesville, with a lot of rural territory that swung hard to Youngkin and only a handful of precincts in Fairfax).  If you do this, you can keep Loudoun and Prince William whole and keep VA-11 entirely within Fairfax.  Depending on the precise VRA requirements, it could be possible to contract VA-04 to only Richmond+Henrico+Petersburg+part of Chesterfield.

[Dan the Roman]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

The picks insulted the court. No self-respecting lawyer who reached a State Supreme court is going to do anything but empathize with an Ivy league professor forced by law to work with some random kid plucked from a 25k a year job with the Wisconsin GOP daddy got them. By picking these folks when the Ds picked who they did, the GOP insulted the dignity of the professional qualifications of the D picks, which also by implication insulted the professional dignity of the judges.

This was the least bad option for the GOP. Worse one was the COurt decided they could do nothing, then when the two special masters failed to work together, the court just took the map the D Professor produced because by that point they detested the GOP kid so much they wanted to see their reaction.

[GALeftist]

At least it seems that the Republican majority on the Supreme Court isn't super hackish, which bodes well for a fair map.

[Skill and Chance]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

[Dan the Roman]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

[Skill and Chance]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

Agree in the sense that I think it's more likely Dems get the HoD back in 2023 than lose the State Senate. 

If the HoD ends up on the 2022 ballot due to the redistricting issue, R's probably hold onto it until 2023 just because of what midterm turnout usually looks like.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do ya'll think of a map like this? I aimed to make it both fair and have many highly competative districts.

3 seats isn't really enough for NOVA but it isn't quite big enough to support 4. Many maps I see draw 3 NOVA seats and butcher the difference into Districts 1 and 6. In this case, I put Loudon County into 6 which allows for 3 dedicated NOVA seats and a seat that is mostly NOVA based, even if that means exurbs.

[lfromnj]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

The picks insulted the court. No self-respecting lawyer who reached a State Supreme court is going to do anything but empathize with an Ivy league professor forced by law to work with some random kid plucked from a 25k a year job with the Wisconsin GOP daddy got them. By picking these folks when the Ds picked who they did, the GOP insulted the dignity of the professional qualifications of the D picks, which also by implication insulted the professional dignity of the judges.

This was the least bad option for the GOP. Worse one was the COurt decided they could do nothing, then when the two special masters failed to work together, the court just took the map the D Professor produced because by that point they detested the GOP kid so much they wanted to see their reaction.

This seems dumb, Bryan was clearly well qualified to work on redistricting and literally heads a  redistricting  data firm . He worked with other professors on redistricting  papers and the like. He just was far too partisan and or too directly connected to the VIRGINIA GOP.

[Skill and Chance]

What do ya'll think of a map like this? I aimed to make it both fair and have many highly competative districts.

3 seats isn't really enough for NOVA but it isn't quite big enough to support 4. Many maps I see draw 3 NOVA seats and butcher the difference into Districts 1 and 6. In this case, I put Loudon County into 6 which allows for 3 dedicated NOVA seats and a seat that is mostly NOVA based, even if that means exurbs.

Hmmm... It avoids all the unnecessary county splits in NOVA and Hampton Roads from the commission proposals.  Wittman still has a seat on this map, but Spanberger would be out of luck and Wexton, who, based on her former state senate seat, lives in Loudoun, would not be happy. 

Is the shading Biden vs. Trump 2020?  If so, I assume VA-06 was nearly Youngkin+10 and never voted Dem prior to 2018?

How safe are VA-07 and VA-02?  Did Youngkin win VA-02?  If he didn't, this map is too Dem to be fair, but assuming he won 6 and 2 pretty easily it's fine.   

[Skill and Chance]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

A tie in the state senate would just mean R control, but a tie in the HoD would be sufficient to block R legislation and 2 net seats have to move up to NOVA...

[lfromnj]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

A tie in the state senate would just mean R control, but a tie in the HoD would be sufficient to block R legislation and 2 net seats have to move up to NOVA...

Honestly the bigger issue than NOVA(the 2 seats could be in Western and Central PWC) is that Charlottesville will get a 2nd seat and the Blacksburg seat will get more D>

[ProgressiveModerate]

What do ya'll think of a map like this? I aimed to make it both fair and have many highly competative districts.

3 seats isn't really enough for NOVA but it isn't quite big enough to support 4. Many maps I see draw 3 NOVA seats and butcher the difference into Districts 1 and 6. In this case, I put Loudon County into 6 which allows for 3 dedicated NOVA seats and a seat that is mostly NOVA based, even if that means exurbs.

Hmmm... It avoids all the unnecessary county splits in NOVA and Hampton Roads from the commission proposals.  Wittman still has a seat on this map, but Spanberger would be out of luck and Wexton, who, based on her former state senate seat, lives in Loudoun, would not be happy. 

Is the shading Biden vs. Trump 2020?  If so, I assume VA-06 was nearly Youngkin+10 and never voted Dem prior to 2018?

How safe are VA-07 and VA-02?  Did Youngkin win VA-02?  If he didn't, this map is too Dem to be fair, but assuming he won 6 and 2 pretty easily it's fine.   

Youngkin would've def won 6 and probably 2; it was only Biden + 7, and yes, this is 2020 Pres shading.

[Skill and Chance]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

A tie in the state senate would just mean R control, but a tie in the HoD would be sufficient to block R legislation and 2 net seats have to move up to NOVA...

Honestly the bigger issue than NOVA(the 2 seats could be in Western and Central PWC) is that Charlottesville will get a 2nd seat and the Blacksburg seat will get more D>

Interesting.  So there's enough out there even without NOVA gains (and the close in 2021 Loudoun and PWC seats inevitably get forced closer to DC in your scenario).  They probably get one more out of Chesterfield too with a compact redraw.  Almost a done deal then that they at least get back to a tie on the new map unless Biden is in Bush 2008 approval territory.

[Mr.Phips]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

A tie in the state senate would just mean R control, but a tie in the HoD would be sufficient to block R legislation and 2 net seats have to move up to NOVA...

Honestly the bigger issue than NOVA(the 2 seats could be in Western and Central PWC) is that Charlottesville will get a 2nd seat and the Blacksburg seat will get more D>

Interesting.  So there's enough out there even without NOVA gains (and the close Loudoun and PWC seats inevitably get forced closer to DC in your scenario).  They probably get one more out of Chesterfield too with a compact redraw.  Almost a done deal then that they at least get back to a tie on the new map unless Biden is in Bush 2008 approval territory.

Also remember that Fredericksburg likely wouldn’t be split in a court drawn map.  That would probably mean Democrats win back the seat they lost there this year.

[Torie]

Now that the VA Supremes are starting over, I thought I would draw a map per my metrics. My metrics outside or urban versus rural and metro area cohesion, disdain COI considerations, because most of it is spin city disingenuous BS, and go for avoiding chops, and compactness, subject to adherence to the VRA as I interpret it, and on that one it is spin city too, and I am quite confident I have it right and the spinners wrong to the extent they actually believe the spin.

And this is what I came up with, drawing maps the way I like to draw them.. I can hear the howls of indignation about the chopping up of the Shenandoah Valley already. Frankly my dear I don’t give a damn. And no, I did not check the partisan stats until the end, although obviously I know pretty well the partisan lay of the VA land in general. 

The partisan colors are Trump 2020. The colors for governor 2021 probably did flip a couple of shades, I understand.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8abc3a86-b744-44af-9f49-959a7e636d03

[Sol]

There's literally no reason to split up the Shenandoah Valley lol, and unlike many silly CoI arguments it's actually quite well-established.  It also doesn't have to interfere with the rest of your map--you just have to rotate things.

[Skill and Chance]

Now that the VA Supremes are starting over, I thought I would draw a map per my metrics. My metrics outside or urban versus rural and metro area cohesion, disdain COI considerations, because most of it is spin city disingenuous BS, and go for avoiding chops, and compactness, subject to adherence to the VRA as I interpret it, and on that one it is spin city too, and I am quite confident I have it right and the spinners wrong to the extent they actually believe the spin.

And this is what I came up with, drawing maps the way I like to draw them.. I can hear the howls of indignation about the chopping up of the Shenandoah Valley already. Frankly my dear I don’t give a damn. And no, I did not check the partisan stats until the end, although obviously I know pretty well the partisan lay of the VA land in general. 

The partisan colors are Trump 2020. The colors for governor 2021 probably did flip a couple of shades, I understand.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8abc3a86-b744-44af-9f49-959a7e636d03

Hmm... this might be a Dem special master's initial proposal.

[Gass3268]

The VASC keeps smacking down the VAGOP.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1460288365216116738?s=20

[Stuart98]

Have to wonder at this point if the VAGOP is going to end up in a worse position than if they had never pushed the fake redistricting commission to begin with. Would Democrats have been able to get a gerrymander through before they lost the house and governorship?

[Oryxslayer]

Have to wonder at this point if the VAGOP is going to end up in a worse position than if they had never pushed the fake redistricting commission to begin with. Would Democrats have been able to get a gerrymander through before they lost the house and governorship?

They may have attempted to rush a state house map so that there were lines for 2021 (and said lines probably mean the Dems don't lose said chamber) but they would have certainly thrown the congressional plans onto the backburner until after 2021. Which means a Youngkin veto or a Lame Duck bill.

[Skill and Chance]

Have to wonder at this point if the VAGOP is going to end up in a worse position than if they had never pushed the fake redistricting commission to begin with. Would Democrats have been able to get a gerrymander through before they lost the house and governorship?

With COVID delays, the data simply wasn't going to be available in time to do a legal new map for the 2021 election (because of the June primaries), so they would still have lost the chamber.  There would be the possibility of drawing Dem maps for 2022/23 and beyond in a December special session, but everyone would have to be in agreement.  Northam would have to be willing to call the special session and since their majority is only 21/19, both of the mavericky Dem state senators would have to vote for the maps in defiance of the new HoD majority they would be preparing to negotiate with.

Otherwise, everything ultimately ends up at the state supreme court like it is now. 

A consistent theme so far this cycle is that if you try to game a commission process, there will be blowback from the independent arbitrator (whether indies on the commission or a court).

[lfromnj]

The Petersburg state hosue district that was unpacked is literally the old MS SD 19 all over again where white very Republican suburbs were combined with low turnout black areas.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1461097022551900164?s=20

I was actually discussing Sean Trende as a possible pick on discord a few days ago. He has a history (He just defended the Ohio legislative maps) but surprised because I am not sure how he gets paid enough.

[Nyvin]

National Demographics Corporation is the right wing partisan group that the Ducey-Controlled commission in Arizona hired to draw R gerrymanders.   They're also the go-to group for local Republican controlled governments in California for redistricting.  

To say they have a questionable history is an understatement.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1461097022551900164?s=20
I was actually discussing Sean Trende as a possible pick on discord a few days ago. He has a history (He just defended the Ohio legislative maps) but surprised because I am not sure how he gets paid enough.

I didn't know that Sean Trende was actually an R-aligned consultant. That explains a lot of things about RCP, and actually it changes my opinion of the site; I used to think it was a nonpartisan website that was annoyingly slanted to the right, but now it turns out that it is a partisan but rather mild R website.

However it does confirm that he has his thumb on the scale with his poll aggregator, something I've long suspected based on the lack of transparency over which polls are included and which aren't.