2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Greedo punched first]

Does a Democratic State Senate mean that the VAGOP won’t be able to gerrymander?

[Nyvin]

Does a Democratic State Senate mean that the VAGOP won’t be able to gerrymander?

The Redistricting Commission is in the state constitution now, if the commission doesn't agree on the maps (almost guaranteed they won't) then the State Supreme Court does the drawing.

[Greedo punched first]

Would a SCOVA map be at least slightly better than one drawn by a GOP trifecta?

[GALeftist]

Would a SCOVA map be at least slightly better than one drawn by a GOP trifecta?

One would have to imagine. Couldn't really be worse.

[Greedo punched first]

Was the last map drawn by a GOP trifecta?

[Tintrlvr]

Was the last map drawn by a GOP trifecta?

No, the Democrats controlled the State Senate at the time. But in any event recall that the Democrats had held VA-09 right up until the 2010 elections (the Republicans failed to even field a candidate there in 2008!), so "gerrymandering" in 2011 would not feel like gerrymandering these days anyway.

[lfromnj]

Was the last map drawn by a GOP trifecta?

No, the Democrats controlled the State Senate at the time. But in any event recall that the Democrats had held VA-09 right up until the 2010 elections (the Republicans failed to even field a candidate there in 2008!), so "gerrymandering" in 2011 would not feel like gerrymandering these days anyway.

It actually was drawn by a GOP trifecta in 2012 after they flipped the state senate in 2011.

[Brittain33]

Was the last map drawn by a GOP trifecta?

No, the Democrats controlled the State Senate at the time. But in any event recall that the Democrats had held VA-09 right up until the 2010 elections (the Republicans failed to even field a candidate there in 2008!), so "gerrymandering" in 2011 would not feel like gerrymandering these days anyway.

It actually was drawn by a GOP trifecta in 2012 after they flipped the state senate in 2011.

And then VA-4 and adjacent districts were redrawn by a court to resolve VRA issues.

[Greedo punched first]

What might the new map look like?

[Skill and Chance]

Was the last map drawn by a GOP trifecta?

No, the Democrats controlled the State Senate at the time. But in any event recall that the Democrats had held VA-09 right up until the 2010 elections (the Republicans failed to even field a candidate there in 2008!), so "gerrymandering" in 2011 would not feel like gerrymandering these days anyway.

It actually was drawn by a GOP trifecta in 2012 after they flipped the state senate in 2011.

And then VA-4 and adjacent districts were redrawn by a court to resolve VRA issues.

Yes, very complicated situation

State Senate Map: Drawn by Democrats who had a 22D/18R majority at the time (thanks to 3 rural downballot Dem seats), but under intense pressure from the Republican Governor and HoD to leave the deciding seats competitive after the initial Dem proposal was blocked.  It was basically 18D/18R/4 swing seats.  They lost all 3 of the rural seats by 2015, but the suburban Richmond swing seat and 1 of the lean R seats in outer NOVA moved their way and they took back the majority in 2019.

House of Delegates Map: Drawn as aggressively as possible by Republicans with no Dem input.  They were trying for a 2/3rds majority using pre-Obama numbers in NOVA and briefly obtained it.  Dems still lost control 51R/49D in 2017 while winning the statewide PV massively.  A federal court then struck down several Southside/Hampton Roads districts on VRA grounds in 2018 and they won control 55D/45R in 2019.  Had the old map remained in place, it would have only been 51D/49R after 2019, but they would likely have held Republicans to a 50/50 tie in 2021.  They lost 4 Lean D seats that were modified by the court when it was formerly 2 Safe D and 2 Safe R.

Congressional Map: Drawn 8R/3D by Republican trifecta in 2012 after they picked up 2 of the 3 rural Dem state senate seats and took control through the Republican LG  The VA-03 VRA district was struck down in federal court in 2016, turning VA-04 into a 2nd VRA district and flipping it, while making changes to VA-07 that were decisive for Spanberger's wins in both 2018 and 2020.  VA-02 got more Republican in 2016, but still flipped in 2018.

[lfromnj]

A major question is what to do with the 2 black majority seats. Its clear they were intended as black opportunity seats and both failed at that. However the GOP currently really needs those seats for the majority.

[Skill and Chance]

A major question is what to do with the 2 black majority seats. Its clear they were intended as black opportunity seats and both failed at that. However the GOP currently really needs those seats for the majority.

They probably get consolidated back into 1?  Given that Republicans just barely got control this year, it's not likely to last in politically average times no matter what the court draws, and the new redistricting rules prohibit anything like the 2011 HoD map. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

A fair map based on VA's natural geography would probably not be more than 6-4-1 or so. Sure, you can draw 8-3 if you really want to (and it certainly would be a nice buffer against GOP gerrymanders elsewhere), but it's pretty ludicrous to call that a fair map.

I don't know where people are getting the idea that VA has naturally pro-Dem geography from?  NOVA is a quarter of the state, not a majority.  Other than Biden 2020 (mild Dem advantage because he flipped the exurbs) and Northam 2017 (basically neutral because he did really well in Hampton Roads and Richmond), which were blowouts, there has been a huge Dem disadvantage in close races.  McAuliffe won with only 4/11 CDs in 2013.  Even assuming he holds on to win again this year, he's likely to lose the CD map 5/6.  At the state legislative level, the pro-GOP geography is still operative.  Republicans held onto a bunch of narrow Clinton seats in 2017/19.

None of the statistics you stated are how you measure geographic bias of a states partisan delegation - especially the 2013 district number given that the state's congressional lines were still gerrymandered at that point.

Geographic bias is a measure of how many people live in the other parties turf. If 90% of precincts vote 55-45 for party A, and then 10% vote 90-10 for party B, party B is at a huge disadvantage. Their voters are wasted in districts party A will win most of the time. This is what would occur in Wisconsin even under a fair map: lots of 55-60% R seats, and a smaller number of 70%+ D seats. But it also matters for nonvoters. If in a different scenario Party A's turf has more nonvoters than party B, despite both parties have the same number of voters in each are, party A will get awarded more districts through reapportionment even though the vote distribution is equivalent.

So what about VA? Well, lets look at the 2016 presidential results - by no means an accurate measure of VA's modern political geography but the narrowest election result included in DRA. For every 1 resident in a Trump precinct, there is 1.25 in a Clinton Precinct.

This discrepancy persists after we remove the isolated Dem areas like Roanoke. It gets even worse when we look at what Trump precincts border the strong Clinton ones - in the metro areas these are comparatively tight marginal precincts. Trump's safest precincts are in the rural west far from Dem strongholds, whereas the Dem strongholds can take in large numbers of GOP voters and still remain safe. This occurs naturally in NOVA of course: 20% of Trump's statewide votes came from the three safe Blue counties and their cities. Which is why we continue to get puff pieces on GOP activist efforts in the region: Trump voters are still numerous and connected in NOVA, they are just disconnected from the even more numerous and increasingly diverse Democratic neighbors.

DRA just released VA 2020 data, meaning I plugged VA into my geography bias calculator.



The result is a very mild R bias; R + 2.60. This is a purely mathematical calculation so while it is imperfect, it is plugged into a definite algorithm that generally outputs results that make sense.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Your calculator is very flawed because it looks at things by the level of precinct size, and not by district size tbh.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your calculator is very flawed because it looks at things by the level of precinct size, and not by district size tbh.

Ye well the geography bias works is the more seats you have in a given state, the more powerful the bias is in shaping the outcome of the map. VA will have 11 seats so it’s pretty easy to draw a compact map that ranges anywhere from 6-5 to 7-4; even 8-3. However once you get to the HOD level there’s really only so much even the most extreme gerrymander can do.

Again, take this as just a general benchmark and not an end all be all. There’s def flaws in my methodology and I certainly ain’t Nate Silver lol.

[Skill and Chance]

Your calculator is very flawed because it looks at things by the level of precinct size, and not by district size tbh.

Ye well the geography bias works is the more seats you have in a given state, the more powerful the bias is in shaping the outcome of the map. VA will have 11 seats so it’s pretty easy to draw a compact map that ranges anywhere from 6-5 to 7-4; even 8-3. However once you get to the HOD level there’s really only so much even the most extreme gerrymander can do.

Again, take this as just a general benchmark and not an end all be all. There’s def flaws in my methodology and I certainly ain’t Nate Silver lol.

In theory, yes, because you eventually approach the upper limit of each voter representing themselves, which is the same as a statewide referendum.  In practice, none of the legislative chambers in highly populated states come anywhere close to this (the NH House of Representatives does more or less behave like this).

So within the plausible range of legislature or CD sizes, you get peaks and valleys where certain sizes are clearly better for one party than the other, even keeping the statewide geographical bias constant.

In VA, the 40 seat state senate has historically been easier for Democrats than the 100 seat HoD.  Republicans have only ever once won more than 21 seats in the state senate, while they have been over 60 seats in the HoD many times.   

[Nyvin]

For the consultants sent to to the VA Supreme Court to draw the districts -

Democrats sent academics from Universities (all three are professors) who have worked on civil cases regarding redistricting before.

Republicans sent two partisans from the national party that helped draw partisans gerrymanders in other states, and a former Census Bureau advisor who's now part of a right wing think tank.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1457779329279037444

[lfromnj]

For the consultants sent to to the VA Supreme Court to draw the districts -

Democrats sent academics from Universities (all three are professors) who have worked on civil cases regarding redistricting before.

Republicans sent two partisans from the national party that helped draw partisans gerrymanders in other states, and a former Census Bureau advisor who's now part of a right wing think tank.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1457779329279037444

lol VA Republicans.

One of the dem special masters is the PA redraw prof and another drew the unpacked black districts in VA. Surprised the black caucus agreed to the latter after he unpacked the districts a bit too much.

[Gass3268]

VASC unanimously threw out all of the GOP choices.

https://twitter.com/ssurovell/status/1459180442914066451?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

VASC unanimously threw out all of the GOP choices.

https://twitter.com/ssurovell/status/1459180442914066451?s=20

Very encouraging sign that this is going to be a fair process that follows the spirit of indepedent redistricting as well as the letter of the law. 

[Gass3268]

With everything that has happened this week RRH and Conservative ET are not happy places right now.

[Skill and Chance]

Interestingly, the VASC seat that is up next year is the swing justice with the current composition.   Because of the split legislature, there would have to be a deal between the parties to confirm anyone.  If they deadlock and leave it open, Youngkin could recess appoint a conservative, but they can only serve until the next legislative session.  R's would be risking a D-controlled legislature making the permanent appointment as soon as 2024 or even 2023 (court-ordered 2022 HoD elections on the new maps are possible) if they went that route. 

[Thunder98]

Here's my fair map of VA. 6D-4R-1C seats, so in a good year for the Dems, the map could be 7D-4R and in a good year for the GOP it could be 6R-5D. Based on 2020 Prez stats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a74d088c-b320-47f5-a105-dcda5c850c95

[Brittain33]

This has been a bad week for political hackery. Good thing for Democrats that New York didn’t try to release a map while redistricting Mercury is in retrograde.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1