2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.wavy.com/news/politics/virginia-politics/congresswoman-luria-says-she-supports-redrawn-lines-for-her-district/
Hmmmm
Any chance va Ds gerrymander in the next 2 months?

no chance at all.

That would be 1. highly inappropriate and 2. politically short-sighted as it would be an open invitation to TX/GA/FL to draw out a bunch of congressional Dems next year, to the point where it would be a massive net loss.  I suppose threatening to do a maximal Dem gerrymander in VA (or also CO/NM for that matter) for 2020 if the GA/TX/FL legislatures touch their current maps could be effective.

[Skill and Chance]

FYI I found this dude in VA
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-says-he-would-veto-gop-redistricting-bill-wants-court/article_a6f8acf1-1554-5bd5-b969-f4a496bc2929.html

He supported a GOP gerrymander to protect black legislators(senator spruill)
If the GOP can find one other vote they could probably get a lot of support for their map. I don't think there would be enough in the house but the senate margin is literally 2 seats.

That would at most send it to court/an independent process.  There is absolutely no way a GOP map is getting enacted over Northam's veto.

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's fine to redo the amendment, but they need to be consistent and apply whatever process they propose to the 2021 map even if it isn't in the state constitution yet.  However, it wouldn't be a bad idea to use that leverage to try and make a deal in which a nearby state where Republicans would have controlled the process does the say.  With the way judicial selection is set up in VA, the state supreme court basically is a backdoor for a long term (5-10 yrs or longer) legislative majority's preferences. 

[Skill and Chance]

Dems better pack the court so they draw an 8-3 map.

The number of justices is in the state constitution in VA.

[Skill and Chance]

Just thought, but is it possible that VA-10 keeps it's western counties out to Frederick and instead VA-1 is the district pulled into NoVA to balance the population?

This is quite possible.  The cleanest way to draw NOVA is 2 all-Fairfax districts (VA-08 and VA-11), then put all of Loudoun and the remaining slice of western Fairfax (<20K people) in VA-10 and then put all of Prince William/Manassas in VA-01.  It is not necessary to split Loudoun or Prince William.  This obviously flips VA-01 decisively to the Democrats-this version of VA-01 would barely get south of Fredericksburg.  This VA-10 would either be a Trump->Biden swing district or Lean Dem depending on which exact rural areas it gets.  The Dem commissioners would want to give it Charlottesville and the GOP commissioners would want to draw it into the Shenandoah Valley.  However, this configuration would also force an E-W safe R VA-07 cutting across central VA north of Henrico, so both sides would be sacrificing an incumbent by placing them in an opposition party +15 district.  It might not even be considered.   

[Skill and Chance]

Just thought, but is it possible that VA-10 keeps it's western counties out to Frederick and instead VA-1 is the district pulled into NoVA to balance the population?

This is quite possible.  The cleanest way to draw NOVA is 2 all-Fairfax districts (VA-08 and VA-11), then put all of Loudoun and the remaining slice of western Fairfax (<20K people) in VA-10 and then put all of Prince William/Manassas in VA-01.  It is not necessary to split Loudoun or Prince William.  This obviously flips VA-01 decisively to the Democrats-this version of VA-01 would barely get south of Fredericksburg.  This VA-10 would either be a Trump->Biden swing district or Lean Dem depending on which exact rural areas it gets.  The Dem commissioners would want to give it Charlottesville and the GOP commissioners would want to draw it into the Shenandoah Valley.  However, this configuration would also force an E-W safe R VA-07 cutting across central VA north of Henrico, so both sides would be sacrificing an incumbent by placing them in an opposition party +15 district.  It might not even be considered.   

So are you saying VA-10 essentially stays the same except you chop out McLean, Prince William and some other parts of Fairfax but keep Great Falls in with Loudoun county?  That would probably be a pretty swingy district the first few years but then become clearly lean Dem as Loudoun grows.  This is what I would do if I wanted to gerrymander 4 NOVA based Dem districts.

Yes, but it could be either Lean D or Lean R depending on the configuration.  There is no need to split Loudoun or Prince William.  Fairfax has to be split.  The trouble is how much rural territory you have to attach to VA-10 south/west of Loudoun, which may lead the commission to favor a Loudoun+western Prince William COI.  If they refuse to split Prince William, VA-10 either has to go west to Winchester and nearly to Harrisonburg (R favoring map) or down the Blue Ridge to Charlottesville (D favoring map).  It is possible to do either version with just one county split (in addition to the required one in Fairfax). 

The all-Fairfax VA-11 and Fredericksburg-Manassass version of VA-01 are very clean. 

[Skill and Chance]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

That's good, right?

[Skill and Chance]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829

Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

I thought the current state Senate map was an R gerry?

Mostly incumbent protection meant to hold 21-19 for Ds. However that SW rural VA district just zoomed hard right. There's another district that puts Montgomery county with Roanoke to create a Biden +10 district when Roanoke +Salem +Roanoke county is basically 1 district and would be moderately Trump.  Disadvantages for Rs in the state senate for redistricting will probably be pushes into NOVA.  Also some stuff in Richmond

Yes, the Roanoke seat will likely become R leaning, but the population shifts will move another net senate seat from the rural southwest to NOVA.  There's also the matter of the Richmond area, where a once safe R SD barely held on in 2019.  R's already hold all of the currently competitive seats in the Tidewater.  I don't think you can weaken the one Likely D district there without also flipping one of the Obama-Biden R seats. 

I don't see how you get an R majority State Senate without an explicit gerrymander or a reversion to 2012ish voting patterns. 

The State House is more interesting because R's drew NOVA to try for a 2/3rds majority back in 2011.  And it worked, but only for one cycle.  A lot is riding on VRA/state level majority-minority districting rules. Without the court-ordered redraw of Hampton Roads, Dems would still have flipped the chamber, but only by 51D/49R, and that's due to the now-counterproductive spider web map of NOVA based on 2008-10 voting patterns.  If you redrew compact NOVA districts and reversed the court-ordered VRA changes, it's conceivable R's would still control the chamber.  The population shift probably forces at least one more double digit Biden district in NOVA this time around, but it also means a near certain loss of a Dem-leaning district in Southside.  IDK the State House looks like it could be on a knife's edge for a while, especially if the state courts pick R-tilting maps.       

[Skill and Chance]

Hot take coming, but I anticipate whatever the commission draws is going to get tossed out if the GOP doesn't like it, if they get a bad map, they'll take their chances with a 5-1 R court, which is probably a smart gamble from their perspective.

(shaded by 2016 presidential data)
Which of the following does this look like? D gerrymander, R gerrymander, competitive-mander (gerrymander designed to produce competitive seats), fair-proportional map, fair-non-partisan map.

little bit of everything, compact in Fairfax, R gerrymander in NoVA and D gerrymander in Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Also I wonder if that Newport News seat is VRA compliant.

For the record the VA supreme court is composed by 4 republicans and 3 democrats. One of the republicans (Mims) have very good relations with the dems

Interesting, so it's not actually a foregone conclusion they will just pick the R map?

[Skill and Chance]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

[Skill and Chance]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

[Skill and Chance]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

[Skill and Chance]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022.  

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).  

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job. This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ.  

Doubt it. Maybe a pure private citizen commission where the citizens are randomly selected like Jury Duty but if you allow self selection, activists like Eid will do outrageous stuff like split East Lansing and Lansing. I can't think of anything as bad on this map besides some weird funky lines regarding VRA.

Eid's just one vote out of >10 and you need a supermajority to pass a map.  CO had a "Trump really won 2020" guy on their commission, but I believe he resigned.  As long as the activist isn't the sole tiebreaker*, this isn't a huge problem and the likelihood of an activist for the other side also being there is reasonably high.  

*This system can and does fail.  It's probably going to happen 2 cycles in a row in AZ in favor of opposite parties and there's a high risk the independent on the MT commission is going to do this too.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like they took the GOP map and just made a few minor tweeks to it.   Democrats can still easily win a majority but it's definitely a map that favors the Republicans.

Are you surprised they have apparently all agreed to this?

[Skill and Chance]

Curious if it would have been possible for Democrats to draw 2/3rds majorities if they still had control under the 2011 rules? 

[Skill and Chance]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

[Skill and Chance]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

I think the Biden numbers will mean more in 2023 than they do today. 

We really need this year's data on what Trump->Biden and 3rd Party->Biden presidential voters do at the state level. 

Prior to Biden, there was a profound pro-R geographic bias in VA, so I'm not surprised a fair-ish map would be 20/20 using Clinton #'s, especially taking into account VRA obligations.

[Skill and Chance]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

[Skill and Chance]

They are working on the HoD map today.  FWIW they appear to be using a map that has 49/100 Trump 2016 districts as their starting point. 

[Skill and Chance]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

If Dems had drawn the map, I think they probably go 8-3. I'd guess they'd have made 5,6,9 extremely red while putting 1 into Prince William and Fairfax.

No way 8D/3R is possible with the county/municipality-splitting rules.  Best case scenario is 7/4 and that's only if Albemarle ends up with the non-VRA district parts of Richmond or VA-01 takes all of Prince William County and VA-10 includes both all of Loudoun and all of Albemarle.  In the second scenario, VA-07 becomes safe R, and VA-01 becomes safe D.  Considering the commission includes elected officials, I highly doubt they would vote to throw both Wittman and Spanberger under the bus, so I consider the Henrico-Charlottesville scenario the only way to get a 7D/4R result within the rules.  And this would of course depend on giving R's most everything they want on the legislative maps. 

[Skill and Chance]

7-4 D that's 6-3-2 in terms of competitive seems like a fair map for VA

The map with the Prince William to Fredericksburg VA-01 and the Loudoun to Charlottesville VA-10 would do that, but again it involves throwing incumbents from both parties into safe districts for the other party with no obvious alternative place to run, so I doubt it will happen.

[Skill and Chance]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

[Skill and Chance]

So one of the Dems on the panel stormed out and said GOP isn't working in good faith.

You voted for this Dems.  This is on you.  You are that incompetent/bad at what you do.

Dems were idiots to give up redistricting in this state, it could have easily been an 8-3 map. I expect a minimal change map from the state court considering its fairly mainstream.

Dems are always idiots.  They can't do politics.

No.  Rigging congressional maps is still bad, no matter where it's done.

*That includes if the state court draws an R-rigged map, but I don't think that's the most likely outcome

OMG.  JFC.  This is exhibit A to the problem.  Dems cannot unilaterally disarm.  This is exactly what got us Donald Trump with a GOP senate and house and unchecked power.  Saying, "we're better than them" and letting them lie, cheat, and steal their way to power.

It's a moderate court, that's why I suspect they'll draw a minimal change map in the end. After Biden gets the infrastructure bills passed it's time to move to the center on cultural issues and throw AOC under the bus.

Yes, I'm not expecting an unapologetic R gerrymander from the VA court. 

And while this probably isn't the right thread for it, I also can't believe how quickly Dems are falling back into the all social issues, all the time trap when there is no need.

[Skill and Chance]

Kind of shocked the Dem side of this didn't even try linking Charlottesville to Henrico or Loudoun or putting all of Prince William in VA-01. 

[Skill and Chance]

Do Dems have enough time to step in and scrap this moronic commission?

It's in the state constitution, so any amendment would have to pass the legislature in both the 2023 and 2025 sessions and then pass a statewide referendum in November 2025.  There is no way voters are going to affirmatively bring back gerrymandering, but they could plausibly try to add language to the amendment in a way that they believe would be favorable to them (maximizing minority opportunity districts?  More focus on competitiveness over county/city lines?). 

Something to keep in mind is that if Dems control the legislature most of this decade, they will have appointed a supermajority of the VA Supreme Court by 2031.  With the current process, the shoe will likely be on the other foot next time.  3 of the 4 seats appointed when Dems had no say are up between 2027 and 2031, so it won't even matter if they blow it this year or in the next cycle immediately after 2021 redistricting.