2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

LOL
I just posted a thread at the same time. Anyway deleted that one and just gonna post it here.
Id say theres almost no chance state D's pass a commision, I don't even think Northam mentioned it in his press conference or whatever he had.

Assuming all incumbents survive 2020 the VA D's.
For the state senate they can definetely shore up a lot of seats and add a few seats. I haven't really seen the map for it.
For the congressional delegation
They can keep a 7-4 with 3 NOVA seats, 2 black seats while using rural South to polarize it as much as possible so they don't act as sinks and shore up VA 2nd to a likely D along with VA 7th to Safe D using charlottesville.
However considering NOVA has 4 seats with 1 Safe exurban PWC thats mixed with tide water its possible to spread out the 3 remaining districts to make 4 Safe D NOVA districts for a 8-3 map, a Really bold Democrat plan would go 9-2 with 5 NOVA seats but that has an almost 0% chance as that would completely destroy communities of interest and lazy people like Gerry Connolly wouldn't want low double digit Clinton seats.

For the state house due to the size of the districts Im not sure that a lot of incumbents would vote for a super squiiggly map. D's could get maybe a few more seats in NOVA but they can't exactly stretch it out.
Charlottesville is probably the 1st thing to fix in the state house for D's. They only have 1 rep there. A fair map would probably give 2 reps but another college town is nearby called harrisonburg that can basically create 3 Safe D districts. I think they could make another black seat in the far southwest based around Danville and the other black city. However in the SE a lot of incumbents with an extremely thin gerrymander considering that State D's can under perform in this region.


Btw the maps you drew are they 2016 or 2010 data?

[lfromnj]

Anyway drew a nice little VA state senate gerrymander or atleast most of it. Has 5 40% AA districts along with 3 more 35% AA districts which would likely choose an AA preferred candidate. It is a bit messy overall but could be fixed. Maybe Hamptons+Richmond would require weakening some of the whiter districts to shore up the black districts.


Full MAP


Hampton Roads area. Has 1 VA beach SINK with 8 Safe/Likely D districts


Richmond Area- Purple and northern Richmond Brown have 40% black and should elect a black preferred candidate
The purple is 35% black and 55-40 Clinton Trump so should probably elect a unified black candidate.  Should be Safe D
Chesterfield+white richmond is 20% black along with the western Henrico district. Clinton +17 and +13 so should be Safe D.

Western VA

Roanake +VA tech. Shored up a bit from Clinton +6 to Clinton +10. Likely/ Safe D.
Charlottesville area- Red district is most of Albemarle + 0 charlottesville+ Harrisonburg which is +24 Clinton 50k population collegetown. Has to include two rural VA counties because the current incumbent Creigh Deeds is from Bath County VA even if its Trump +70. Clinton +10 and trending D. Safe D
The other district takes charlottesvile+ a bit of Albemarle and then takes Fredricksburg and the less Republican burbs of it..Clinton +10 too and is trending D but swung R overall from 08.
One last random precints that are black south+martinsville+danville+lynchburg black+some small collegetown called lexington city = a + 1 Clinton district. However I expect it to be lean/Likely R in most years.

Then 12 districts remain in NOVA, obviously Safe D(sane)

Overall atleast 22ish Safe D districts with 6 Likely D's I think and 1 lean/likely R and 11 Safe R.
The VA GOP would be screwed for decades with a map like this.

[lfromnj]

Also question to OP
Why do you redraw the map when DRA 2020 has 2016 partisan data for the 2016 census tracts for Virginia. Atleast for other states it matters but not for Virginia as you lose is Gubernatorial and Senate values.

[lfromnj]

https://www.wavy.com/news/politics/virginia-politics/congresswoman-luria-says-she-supports-redrawn-lines-for-her-district/
Hmmmm
Any chance va Ds gerrymander in the next 2 months?

[lfromnj]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

[lfromnj]

FYI I found this dude in VA
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-says-he-would-veto-gop-redistricting-bill-wants-court/article_a6f8acf1-1554-5bd5-b969-f4a496bc2929.html

He supported a GOP gerrymander to protect black legislators(senator spruill)
If the GOP can find one other vote they could probably get a lot of support for their map. I don't think there would be enough in the house but the senate margin is literally 2 seats.

[lfromnj]

FYI I found this dude in VA
https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/northam-says-he-would-veto-gop-redistricting-bill-wants-court/article_a6f8acf1-1554-5bd5-b969-f4a496bc2929.html

He supported a GOP gerrymander to protect black legislators(senator spruill)
If the GOP can find one other vote they could probably get a lot of support for their map. I don't think there would be enough in the house but the senate margin is literally 2 seats.

That would at most send it to court/an independent process.  There is absolutely no way a GOP map is getting enacted over Northam's veto.

Of course but ds still have to play it careful. I dont think a blatant gerrymander will happen due to the narrow majority. Maybe in NOVA for 4 seats but I think Luria will likely lose sometime in the next decade if she survived 2020 although spanberger can obviously can get white charlottesville.

[lfromnj]

Also if you look West of Richmond and South of Nova  D's currently only hold 3 state house seats in a region with 2.5 million people. Sure its +24 Trump but they can definetely get a few more seats in this region.

Charlottesville currently has 1 packed D rep in an 80% district, A fair map would definetely have 2 D reps. However you can definetely get upto 3 D reps or even 4 if you are willing to use Eastern Lynchburg. I got 2 D+13 and one D+18 district by dividing Charlottesville 3 ways. D+2(from OG charlottesville seat)
Now next to Charlottesville there is another collegetown called Harrisonburg which clinton won by 24 and has 50k people. Another smaller town called Staunton is hillary +2 with 25k people. Add these 2 up with a few super red rurals to connect them and you get a Hillary +8 district. D+3
Take another seat using Danville+martinsville + a few black rurals in far south VA and you get another seat thats 44% black thats Clinton +10(super polarized). Likely D as its pretty black which means turnout could fall in an R wave. D+4
Finally shore up the radford/montgomery county seat. Its currently a tossup at Clinton +1, move it to Clinton +15 by removing the red rurals north and adding more of the college campus. This isn't even a gerrymander, this is a good COI map. This basically Wave proofs the seat from Lean D to clearly  Safe D. Anyway this gives D's an extra 5 seats to hold in a wave although 2 are slightly vulnerable(Harrisonburg and The Martinsville seat.)

[lfromnj]

Also if you look West of Richmond and South of Nova  D's currently only hold 3 state house seats in a region with 2.5 million people. Sure its +24 Trump but they can definetely get a few more seats in this region.

Charlottesville currently has 1 packed D rep in an 80% district, A fair map would definetely have 2 D reps. However you can definetely get upto 3 D reps or even 4 if you are willing to use Eastern Lynchburg. I got 2 D+13 and one D+18 district by dividing Charlottesville 3 ways. D+2(from OG charlottesville seat)
Now next to Charlottesville there is another collegetown called Harrisonburg which clinton won by 24 and has 50k people. Another smaller town called Staunton is hillary +2 with 25k people. Add these 2 up with a few super red rurals to connect them and you get a Hillary +8 district. D+3
Take another seat using Danville+martinsville + a few black rurals in far south VA and you get another seat thats 44% black thats Clinton +10(super polarized). Likely D as its pretty black which means turnout could fall in an R wave. D+4
Finally shore up the radford/montgomery county seat. Its currently a tossup at Clinton +1, move it to Clinton +15 by removing the red rurals north and adding more of the college campus. This isn't even a gerrymander, this is a good COI map. This basically Wave proofs the seat from Lean D to clearly  Safe D. Anyway this gives D's an extra 5 seats to hold in a wave although 2 are slightly vulnerable(Harrisonburg and The Martinsville seat.)

Yeah the W/SW region is the only place  the Republican Gerry held for all 10 years because the region kept it's character for all 10 years. The universities are still universities and they are getting bluer - Obama was the first Dem to win Harrisonburg since the 20th century landslides for instance. It's the least flexible area so if Dem seats are drawn then they are likely to stay blue. Danville though is interesting: the southside in general has piss turnout during the off season: see how dems almost lost the nominally Clinton+10 HD75 last week, and couldn't even muster realistic opposition for the other southside seats. Shrinking AA pop is also a problem down here, so the rural southside seats probably need to be bluer unless VA Dems attach their elections to the regular midterm calendar schedule.  

Yeah the Danville seat is probably tossup tbh. But no reason to not draw it. It's completely isolated from any other blue areas and gives an extra black rep which could get some support. It's a bit ugly but that's about it.

[lfromnj]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

Look how they massacred my boy
Yeah overall its not that big of a difference with regards to COI besides one district but you got a much safer 7-2-2 in the end when mine was probably 5-4-2.

Btw do you think fairfax might start being diverse enough that they start requiring a state house district to be a VRA district such as for Asians? I don't think it will really affect a gerrymander so much but currently I can draw a 45% Asian district thats 33% with 2016 numbers. Maybe by 2020 it could be like 47 or 48%?

[lfromnj]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

Look how they massacred my boy
Yeah overall its not that big of a difference with regards to COI besides one district but you got a much safer 9-2 in the end when mine was probably 5-4-2.

Yeah yours was a fair map. I just never thought Charlottesville to Radford seriously worked, I always assumed the Red rurals would outvote the blue islands. But once I saw it did, I had to mess around with it on a Max-Dem style map. Interestingly, the seat voted for Obama by more that Clinton, which stands in contrast to almost every other blue seat where obama either underpreformed or matched Clinton - while doing several percentage better nationally.

Yeah I was just drawing a mostly non partisan map, I did make one change to give 6 districts to Clinton(the statewide winner) by making the grey district take in a bit more of Fairfax to move it from +1 Trump to +2 or 3 Clinton) Anyway I started with the 2 AA districts and got those out of the way. I decided to try NOVA with inner Nova district +Fairfax+ split into PWC and Loudon districts to see how it worked instead of the usual 3 Safe D NOVA with 1 Safe R exurban seat.  Anyway at the end I was just putting the tidewater district and noticed that a lot of college towns were left so I made a pretty common sense district, it was a little bit messy originally but I cleaned it up so it only splits 1 county for population equality. Overall creating a Trump+5 district out of a Trump +26 2 district space was kinda cool especially with the relativeness cleanness it took and lack of gerrymandering to do it. Its a little bit more messy than what a regular district might be but I think having a district with so many colleges is a good idea as it gives their congressman a motive to represent college funding for their district .

One of the problems I had with a decision I was forced to make by solid and bagel on the map was the pink district originally curved down and picked up VA 7ths rural counties while VA 7th had Hanover. On paper it looked much more messy but it makes more sense for the Pink district to have a bunch of rural counties while the light blue district is Richmond.

If you really want to to try a 9-2 I guess you could use NOVA+Albemarle and keep the other 4 SE districts the same?

[lfromnj]

https://bluevirginia.us/2019/12/the-proposed-virginia-redistricting-amendment-is-a-bad-deal-that-needs-to-be-rejected
opposition to the amendment to delay it to 2031 so D's can redistrict in 2021 because the current one isn't good.

They give their reasons such as the VA supreme court but this was expected already.

[lfromnj]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded.  

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

Everything is with current projections. Using 2010 Data, NOVA just barely passed the pop for three districts in PW, Fairfax, Loudoun, and the cities. The Republicans used this to their advantage with VA-10 reaching beyond the core NOVA, and VA-01 reaching in. In 2020, this core NOVA is projected around 3.4 districts of the 11. That's still impressive growth, even if it doesn't demand a fourth district. Even more impressive when you remember that every 11 people added to the state raises the district pop requirements by 1, AKA a miniature version of the California paradox. This distribution favors the democrats, since they have NOVA votes to add into a 4th seat and make it competitive if they are nice, or it allows four districts to have ~70% of their pop in NOVA and 30% cracked outside, if Dems are aggressive.

Interesting.  If Fairfax + Loudoun + PW + Arlington + Alexandria (and I'm assuming by "cities" you mean the cities within Fairfax and other counties that aren't counted in the county population totals) = 3.4, then I think it would be pretty easy and fair to give Dems 4 districts.  The bulk of the population growth is probably in Loudoun so they could cut out most or all of the PW part of the 10th district while still keeping it lean democrat.  Then extend the PW + Fairfax vote out into a 4th district that runs south toward Richmond.  That seems like the fairest and most cohesive way to clean this up.

1 district based primarily in Arlington + Alexandria with some inner Fairfax.  (very Safe D)

1 district based primarily in Loudoun. (Lean D) (basically the Wexton district but slightly less D)

1 district that's almost all Fairfax.  (Safe D)

1 district that's primarily in Prince William with some Fairfax and some extensions south.  (strong lean D)

A loudon based district without going into fairfax or PWC would be actually lean R. I drew one RN thats +5 Trump and I underpopulated by 50k rurals to account for rurals.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BPaves/status/1234647938011406337

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1235680451039293455

Hey look it's that dirty trick I expected earlier.

Party leadership literally saving idiot progressives from themselves.

[lfromnj]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass.  

Why?

Because of the backup plan for when the commission deadlocks.  Redistricting power going to the right wing state Supreme Court is unacceptable.

https://twitter.com/SchneiderG/status/1236373907881558017

Party leadership literally saving idiot progressives from themselves.

btw it was more a mix of progressives in NOVA and swing seat moderates but whatever. Its hillarious how split Ds are with regards to redistricting, much more so than Rs in MOST states. Its so easy for Republicans to either bribe moderates,or good government reformers, or Minority legislators.

[lfromnj]

I am still confused about what exactly is happening Rn but if the amendment has passed and passes the electorate in 2020 the VA rs should push for this map using the state supreme court tie breaker

Its a 5D 6 R map with the only seat that is within 10 points being VA 2 which moves from Trump +3.5 to Trump +7.9 which would make Luria the sure loser in 2018 and would probably lose in 2022 due to the inelasticity of this district, both AA districts have similar compositions to the current one at 44% for VA 3 and 46% for VA 4. Spanberger gets screwed here from Trump +7 to Trump +14 . So Likely/Safe R there. And VA 5th stays at Trump +14. VA 10 goes to Clinton +26 and VA 1 is Trump +15. Anyway dont see any trends really vulnerable unless Hanover county starts zooming left in Suburban richmond

Each District has a clear COI or two within here IMO
3 Concentric NOVA, one exurban NOVA + tidewater which isnt super large, Shenandoah VA 6, Richmond gets split into black urban east and western white suburban with a few rurals. VA 2 is a bit ugly but still mostly white Hampton roads while VA 3 is black hampton roads. Roanake + SW  VA 9. Only problem is VA 5 is always the oddball out with no clear COI.

[lfromnj]

I doubt that the every GOP justice would want to throw away their credibility, future, and gravitas for the congressional GOP. And before anyone says "of course they will, they're GOP justices!", we've already seen Republican justices go against the party when it comes to gerrymandering all the time, from NC to OH to PA.

Whats more likely is just a rather bland, fair-ish map. Its not the gerrymander that the Dems could have made, but its at least a bit more kind to the Democrats than the current map.

In NC the case was decided on partisan lines and in PA it was one D judge joining the 2 Republican judges.

[lfromnj]

I doubt that the every GOP justice would want to throw away their credibility, future, and gravitas for the congressional GOP. And before anyone says "of course they will, they're GOP justices!", we've already seen Republican justices go against the party when it comes to gerrymandering all the time, from NC to OH to PA.

Whats more likely is just a rather bland, fair-ish map. Its not the gerrymander that the Dems could have made, but its at least a bit more kind to the Democrats than the current map.

In NC the case was decided on partisan lines and in PA it was one D judge joining the 2 Republican judges.

I was referring to all of the court cases that have dealt with gerrymandering, such as ones that have faced superior courts, not just the ones that the supreme courts of each state have faced.

True although this case isn't really a case but rather the VA supreme court directly gets it and is the tiebreaker for the case if there's a deadlock, atleast to the viewer's eye the map looks reasonably clean and it does limit COI splits so I think a VA supreme court thats GOP stacked would support this map.

[lfromnj]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1hXuWN1CfO1Zr5u4nickRMLtl73WWJn74uT0ZxAcvU7g/htmlview

Fairfax actually lost population in 2018 to 2019 according to the Census, Loudoun is still growing fast and so is PWC and arlington and Alexandria are slowly growing .

[lfromnj]

So what's going on here now?

Everyone is assuming the commision amendment will pass the state(pretty reasonable assumption)
so we could have anything from my 5 D-6R map to a bipartisan 6-1-4 map with Luria getting the swing.

[lfromnj]

So what's going on here now?

Everyone is assuming the commision amendment will pass the state(pretty reasonable assumption)
so we could have anything from my 5 D-6R map to a bipartisan 6-1-4 map with Luria getting the swing.

Has it been modified to keep it from being a de facto R gerrymander?  Also, why are the Democrats even allowing a vote on this

I think there were some modifcations but its tough to modify an amendemnt itself, I think it mostly put racial limits? but anyway my map would keep 2 AA districts and is pretty similar to the current map anyway so it would probably pass the test.  My map is the extreme R scenario where the VA supreme court basically chooses a republican to be the map drawer.

[lfromnj]

So what's going on here now?

Everyone is assuming the commision amendment will pass the state(pretty reasonable assumption)
so we could have anything from my 5 D-6R map to a bipartisan 6-1-4 map with Luria getting the swing.

Has it been modified to keep it from being a de facto R gerrymander?  Also, why are the Democrats even allowing a vote on this

I think there were some modifcations but its tough to modify an amendemnt itself, I think it mostly put racial limits? but anyway my map would keep 2 AA districts and is pretty similar to the current map anyway so it would probably pass the test.  My map is the extreme R scenario where the VA supreme court basically chooses a republican to be the map drawer.

Again, why are the Dems even allowing a vote on this blatant power grab?

VA amendments require it to be passed twice in a row in consecutive sessions. The first time was 2019 and most people didn't realize then. Now this year the GOP and a few Ds managed to get it passed as an amendment, I believe the state house leaders tried to block it from coming to a vote but couldn't and the GOP +a few swing Ds voted for it. After it is passed twice in a row it goes to a ballot measure. Now the wording is pretty good so I would say there is a 95% chance this passes. Basically the key part in the amendment is the tiebreaker being the VA supreme court which is mostly GOP legislature appointed. 

[lfromnj]

fairly infuriating that the voters voted in Democrats for gun control which they punted on but were quick to give power to a Republican court.

Regardless, Republicans don't have a ton of options in terms of redistricting.  The rural areas of the state are losing population fast and NoVa is gaining population fast.  Not many options to gerrymander NoVa and even if they did it would be a ticking time bomb before the districts trend further democratic.  I suppose they have more options downstate though.

Its fairly easy to keep 3 NOVA districts, I think all D counties and cities in NOVA(aka Arlington,Alexandria,Fairfax,PWC,and Loudoun) all form like 3.5 districts by 2020? Theres still some R leaning exurban parts of PWC and Loudon, use those to form the last half district. with more exurban and rural parts surrounding it. Again my map I drew there shows the best clean and reasonable map the VA GOP could get(excluding some weird stuff in the SE)

[lfromnj]

At the way things are going, It is pretty easy to make an 8-3 gerrymander of Virginia right now. They could shove the 3 republican seats on the westernmost parts of the state and and divide the 8 democratic seats this way: 3 in the NoVa, and 1 with a portion of NoVa with the tidewater region. 2 in the hampton roads area and 1 each for Richmond and Albemarle/Charlottesville area.

They could have quite easily, but the redistricting commision makes that impossible now, the best is a 5-3-3 map(tossups being VA beach and a 4th NOVA+Exurban district and the richmond white suburban)