2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Mr.Phips]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass. 

[Mr.Phips]

It passed

Dems should have pulled this from the floor once the amendment didn’t pass. 

Why?

Because of the backup plan for when the commission deadlocks.  Redistricting power going to the right wing state Supreme Court is unacceptable.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

[Mr.Phips]

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

This is a blatant R gerrymander that I don’t think even a 5-1 court would draw.  Even the Dem court in PA drew a pretty fair map.

[Mr.Phips]

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.

Everyone is acting like the Virginia Supreme Court is going to draw like a 8 to 3 or 9 to  2 GOP gerrymander and that the amendment passing prevents Democrats from winning any statewide offices next year. Its getting a bit ridiculous with the takes on this amendment.

Looking at the 2020 results...would Republicans really even "want" a 8R-3D map anymore?   Republicans in eastern Virginia (east of VA-6 basically) are kinda on thin ice as it is right now.  I don't think they really have the room to gerrymander the map all that much (sane maps that a commission would draw).  

I'm thinking it's more realistic they agree to concede VA-7 in exchange for making VA-5 and VA-1 safer.  Not much you can do with VA-2 anyway.

I don't think a sustainable 8R-3D is even realistic anymore even with the most hackish R elected officials imaginable holding the crayons. 7-4 might be possible, key word being might. An ironclad 6R-5D is the best option for VA Rs if they had total control.

How's 7-4 even possible?  There have to be 2 VRA seats in southern VA and 3 Dem packs are needed in NoVA.  The best map for Republicans that could be realistically drawn is 6-5 R.  If you get rid of the VRA and draw bacon strips maybe a 7-4 but that's not what's going to happen.

7-4 would be a massive dummymander.  You at least have to concede Dems two Hampton Roads/Richmond seats and three NOVA seats at this point.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

I think the Biden numbers will mean more in 2023 than they do today. 

[Mr.Phips]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

I'm really hoping if nothing else they get rid of the stupid northern arm of VA-5.

Also Wittman probably doesn't want least change since that means pulling his district more into NoVA.   The VA GOP probably wouldn't mind giving him the northern rural parts of VA-7.

And Spanberger wouldn’t mind giving them to him.  She just doesn’t want Hanover County in her district.

[Mr.Phips]

I do think Democrats are over worried about the supreme court here.

I could definitely see the court making slightly favorable decisions for Republicans when drawing VA-02 and VA-07.  How those seats are going to be drawn is where the action is.

[Mr.Phips]

This map also more or less axes Spanberger's seat and replaces it with a new northern VA seat, I really don't see what she'd do in this situation, maybe she'd challenge Bob Good?

I mean really this map will just be used at a starting for Republican negotiations so no it won't be enacted. It may not even be used . However she absolutely retires here. The more interesting question is Luria. That seat is winnable as its around Biden +1.5 but 2022 doesn't look great and she is facing an A tier recruit.

Would Spanberger run against McEachron?

[Mr.Phips]

Dude, Dems failed their voters.  All of them should be primaried for creating this useless commission that may cost Dems seats in the house when they could have shored up 2 incumbents and put a new seat in play.  Total miserable failure Dems 👎.

I’m convinced that Dem leaders and their consultants are morons that don’t want control of congress, state legislatures, or the courts.  They just care about winning the presidency at any cost.

[Mr.Phips]

Chill down, the dem legislators aren't this dumb lol. Mamie Locke knows redistricting.

The VA supreme court isn't even that hackish.  Democrats did screw up on starting negotiations but they are not accepting this map if you actually seen quotes from the hearing.

The VA SC won’t draw a map worse than this for Dems.  Dems could still easily end up with a map that produces a 6R-5D delegation in 2022 though.

[Mr.Phips]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Going to be really tough for VA Dems to hold the HoD if the governor's race is too close to call, though.

Well there are still the 2022 elections, which will likely be held on a slightly better map for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

Don't get too excited folks, I still expect 5-5-1

It's probably just one congessional seat at stake here realistically.

The bigger question is whether the new state legislative maps give Youngkin a trifecta in 2023.  In theory, it should get harder, because adjusting for equal population forces an additional senate seat and at least 2 HoD seats into NOVA.

Maybe, barely, but only in a year better for the GOP slightly than 2021. So I suspect it depends less on the maps and more do Democrats still run the sort of turnout operation they did in 2021, as I suspect in that case they probably would hold ties or narrow majorities under the most likely new maps.

Median seats will very likely be Clinton 2016 by 3 or so.

A tie in the state senate would just mean R control, but a tie in the HoD would be sufficient to block R legislation and 2 net seats have to move up to NOVA...

Honestly the bigger issue than NOVA(the 2 seats could be in Western and Central PWC) is that Charlottesville will get a 2nd seat and the Blacksburg seat will get more D>

Interesting.  So there's enough out there even without NOVA gains (and the close Loudoun and PWC seats inevitably get forced closer to DC in your scenario).  They probably get one more out of Chesterfield too with a compact redraw.  Almost a done deal then that they at least get back to a tie on the new map unless Biden is in Bush 2008 approval territory.

Also remember that Fredericksburg likely wouldn’t be split in a court drawn map.  That would probably mean Democrats win back the seat they lost there this year.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1461758918728769537

lol

Trende is a never Trumper type, I wouldn't bet on him being too kind toward Amanda Chase in VA-7.

IIRC

1. He's really not into maps that split counties/municipalities more than absolutely necessary.
2. He's ideologically somewhere between Youngkin and Romney, definitely not a Trumpist.
3. He would likely prefer to draw more districts winnable for traditionalist outer suburbs R's vs. rural populists.

#1 would help D's significantly in the HoD because their college towns downstate are all currently cracked and help R's significantly in the State Senate, because there's a bunch of Fairfax to Loudoun/PWC/Stafford crossings in NOVA on the current map and D's got nowhere in outer NOVA narrow Biden seats in 2021.  Also the SWVA Dem seat is drawn to connect as many college towns as possible.  They are too small to control a district in the upper chamber, so if it becomes a compact Roanoke seat, it becomes Likely R.  

On the congressional level, he could be very tempted to do the all-Fairfax VA-11+all-PWC safe Dem seat+Loudoun to the mountains Lean R narrow Biden+yuge Youngkin seat.  Similarly, there could be a way to do a Trump+3/Youngkin +15 version of VA-07?

That’s three safe Dem seats in NOVA right?  Fairfax, PWC, Arlington, and Alexandria have enough population for 2.5 districts.

[Mr.Phips]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate. 

That shouldnt be that difficult as long as Biden is more popular in November 2023 than in November 2021.

[Mr.Phips]

I mean, the CD map is pretty bad (although tbf not as bad as the previous decade's), but it's really bizarre to focus on that when there are far more blatant gerrymanders that are ripe for challenge (chiefly OH and NC).

Elias is wasting his time here.  He should be focused almost solely on OH and NC at this point, which are by far the most egregious Republican gerrymanders.

[Mr.Phips]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

The new VA-10 voted for Hillary by 1 and Biden by 9.