2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

[Skill and Chance]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

Given the current SCOTUS, it's pretty likely that VRA requirements to draw majority-minority districts will end before 2031.  So I guess it would come down to what the legislature wants and in some cases, state constitutional language (VA and FL that I know of).

[ProgressiveModerate]

While I don't think it'll happen, I'm really hoping VA gains a 12th district in 2030 cause it just makes a good map a lot easier to draw.

Idk, I actually think the current Virginia is pretty ideal--easily the best map in the country and basically no flaws, except the slightly awkward configuration of VA-2 and 3.

The court def did a good job working with 11 districts, but 12 districts would just solve a lot of the problems that inevitably exist in the western part of the map.

[kwabbit]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

[Хahar 🤔]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

Admittedly the California process prioritizes communities of interest to an unusual extent, but it's worth recalling that in 2010, when given the opportunity to create an Asian district around San Jose, the commission immediately did so even though it involved bringing together groups with nothing in common except their Census designation.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

Admittedly the California process prioritizes communities of interest to an unusual extent, but it's worth recalling that in 2010, when given the opportunity to create an Asian district around San Jose, the commission immediately did so even though it involved bringing together groups with nothing in common except their Census designation.

Speaking of Ro Khanna's 2010s district- are there any meaningful demographic differences between the Asian communities of western Santa Clara County (Cupertino, Santa Clara) and southern Alameda County (e.g. Fremont)? My outsider impression is they're both hubs for H-1B ish (bougie, highly educated, tech and tech-adjacent) ethnic Chinese and Indians, which is not the case for comparatively blue-collar East San Jose and Milpitas which appear to contain more Vietnamese, Filipinos, and possibly Punjabi Sikhs.

[Хahar 🤔]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

Admittedly the California process prioritizes communities of interest to an unusual extent, but it's worth recalling that in 2010, when given the opportunity to create an Asian district around San Jose, the commission immediately did so even though it involved bringing together groups with nothing in common except their Census designation.

Speaking of Ro Khanna's 2010s district- are there any meaningful demographic differences between the Asian communities of western Santa Clara County (Cupertino, Santa Clara) and southern Alameda County (e.g. Fremont)? My outsider impression is they're both hubs for H-1B ish (bougie, highly educated, tech and tech-adjacent) ethnic Chinese and Indians, which is not the case for comparatively blue-collar East San Jose and Milpitas which appear to contain more Vietnamese, Filipinos, and possibly Punjabi Sikhs.

You are correct; Cupertino and the Mission San Jose district of Fremont are basically equivalent demographically.

[kwabbit]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

Admittedly the California process prioritizes communities of interest to an unusual extent, but it's worth recalling that in 2010, when given the opportunity to create an Asian district around San Jose, the commission immediately did so even though it involved bringing together groups with nothing in common except their Census designation.

In GA's case, the area could likely not produce an Asian Dem by 2030. That leaves Texas and NJ as the two cases. In Texas' case, the area has a chance of being solidly Dem, but the Texas GOP have guaranteed through gerrymandering majorities through the decade. They wouldn't draw the district.

I view NJ as the state likeliest to draw an maximal Asian district. Not necessarily with that intent, but parochial interests could align to create such a district. Bonnie Watson Coleman's upcoming retirement significantly changes the reality of NJ's congressional map. Assuming Democrats are still in soft control of the redistricting process, but are still willing to throw a bone to Republicans, the following map could occur:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ee01f685-75e9-4c9d-bdd0-319d83a56ea7

Watson Coleman retiring frees up a huge chunk of Democratic land for Kim to take in Mercer, bar very Asian West Windsor. Frank Pallone's district, assuming he's still around, can snake into Union County. A large gap in Middlesex County is opened up to comprise the bulk of a district. It takes in the heavily Asian towns along Route 1, as well as some parts of Mercer and Somerset. It's bounded to the north by the Keanmander.

38% White 33% Asian. This version doesn't maximize the Asian percentage, but it should be plurality Asian by 2030. It was 49% White 26% Asian in 2010, so I'm guessing it'll be something like 32% White 37% Asian by 2030, and with further adjustments probably could be made 40% Asian.

[Torie]

Just for fun, I revised the VA map enacted to ruthlessly follow the Torie metrics (minimizing chops and their size, hewing to metro areas, compactness, without fear or favor), subject to checking compliance with the VRA when done. After drawing it, and concluding that the Richmond centered CD was black performing, so it could remain very compact, the result is that VA-07 turned into a CD that Trump carried by 2.5%. The way things are going, the Dem incumbent Spanberger I think would have held that CD as I drew it this year.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::a57ae27d-0a5a-447a-8ba7-c2b08e4f9b04

[If my soul was made of stone]

and concluding that the Richmond centered CD was black performing

I refuse to believe you didn't notice that it's majority-white VAP.

[Torie]

and concluding that the Richmond centered CD was black performing

I refuse to believe you didn't notice that it's majority-white VAP.

You are correct. I did notice that. And yet it is fully VRA compliant - 100% odds. Why do you think that is, if you don't know and had to guess?

[Sol]

It's pretty easy to get the Black % up in the Richmond seat in any case by just hooking Chesterfield to the eastern counties through the north rather than the south, as in the current map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Virginia does gain a district, it may be possible to draw an Asian-plurality district in west Fairfax/east Loudoun counties by 2030. Would be very interesting - the first such district outside of Hawaii, California and NYC, and the first truly new Asian-interest seat since Grace Meng’s created in the 2010 cycle.

Across the south there is lots of potential for Asian plurality/majority seats in the future. Georgia south of Cumming and Texas in Denton and Sugarland you can almost draw one as is. Heck even North Carolina you can draw a majority asian state house seat

I’d be surprised if there isn’t atleast one after 2030 somewhere in the house

In GA, you can get about 23% Asian, 44% White by total pop. In Denton/Collin you can get about 30% Asian, 42% White. In NJ in/around Middlesex County, you can get 35% Asian and 39% White. By 2030, I'm guessing the TX and NJ Asian populations will be large enough to draw a plurality seat.

However, a 40% Asian, 35% White seat is still plurality, maybe even majority White electorate. Asian voters, even wealthy ones, aren't particularly high propensity, and these Asians in suburban areas live among extremely high educated Whites. Not to mention the fact that 'Asian' refers to East Asians, Muslim South Asians, and Hindu South Asians, which weakens the argument further. I doubt even an advocacy group would sue for a plurality Asian district for this reason.

Admittedly the California process prioritizes communities of interest to an unusual extent, but it's worth recalling that in 2010, when given the opportunity to create an Asian district around San Jose, the commission immediately did so even though it involved bringing together groups with nothing in common except their Census designation.

In GA's case, the area could likely not produce an Asian Dem by 2030. That leaves Texas and NJ as the two cases. In Texas' case, the area has a chance of being solidly Dem, but the Texas GOP have guaranteed through gerrymandering majorities through the decade. They wouldn't draw the district.

By 2030, I think it's possible Rs still have complete control, especially if 2030 was a good year for them, but I think it's more likely that Dems at least have control of one of the Governorship and State House which would likely lead to partisan impasse. The State Senate map does a good job at likely locking in a GOP majority for the decade because there are only 31 State Senate districts, however, with the state House you have 150 districts and the county splitting rules making it much harder to overcome bad geography.

The median state House seat is only like Trump + 7, and all the seats Dems would need to gain a hypothetical majority are exclusively concentrated in areas where the GOP has been collapsing such as Williamson County, Northern Dallas, Collin, and Tarrant Counties, and northern Bexar County.

A split government would likely lead to partisan impasse throwing the maps to the courts. Since Texas will likely gain at least another 2 seats, and also since the map from this decade was extremely gerrymandered, it's unlikely the court would take a very strict "least change" approach. What's also good about Houston's Asian population is it's really out of the way of other VRA seats like TX-09

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, this is interesting!

On paper, the median district got slightly more Republican (Biden +9ish 1st draft to Biden +7ish final draft), but Democrats would probably prefer a setup where Spanberger, with her track record of winning highly competitive elections, can run in the median district instead of Wexton, who severely underperformed Biden?  Note Clinton actually did better in 2016 in final draft VA-07 than in 1st draft VA-10.

Final draft VA-02 is still Biden +2ish, as in the 1st draft.  Luria is probably out of luck in 2022 unless the national environment dramatically improves.   

VA-05 takes all of Charlottesville and Albemarle, but is still just safe enough to stay Republican for the decade (Trump +11 2016 to Trump +8 2020). 

Final draft VA-01 is now much more suburban dominated and looks like a Dem flip waiting to happen (Trump +14 2016 to Trump +7 2020).

Looks like the state legislative map changes were minor?  According to the document, median district partisanship stayed almost exactly the same in both chambers, meaning the state senate slightly favors Democrats on paper and the HoD slightly favors Republicans on paper vs. statewide results.

This held up very well.  Wexton would very likely have lost the 1st draft VA-10 to Cao while Spanberger landslided in the 1st draft VA-07 with all of Prince William in it (assuming she didn't lose the primary to a Prince William Dem).  Wexton and Spanberger had nearly the same margin of victory on the final map. 

VA is also interesting in this regard because the state house is a rapidly decaying R favorable map (largely because of outer NOVA and Richmond seats that are still narrowly R downballot) while the state senate is a D favorable map that is also probably decaying over time (largely because Hampton Roads is spread too thin).  It's entirely possible that both chambers flip in 2023 or 2027.

[jamestroll]

Wow, this is interesting!

On paper, the median district got slightly more Republican (Biden +9ish 1st draft to Biden +7ish final draft), but Democrats would probably prefer a setup where Spanberger, with her track record of winning highly competitive elections, can run in the median district instead of Wexton, who severely underperformed Biden?  Note Clinton actually did better in 2016 in final draft VA-07 than in 1st draft VA-10.

Final draft VA-02 is still Biden +2ish, as in the 1st draft.  Luria is probably out of luck in 2022 unless the national environment dramatically improves.   

VA-05 takes all of Charlottesville and Albemarle, but is still just safe enough to stay Republican for the decade (Trump +11 2016 to Trump +8 2020). 

Final draft VA-01 is now much more suburban dominated and looks like a Dem flip waiting to happen (Trump +14 2016 to Trump +7 2020).

Looks like the state legislative map changes were minor?  According to the document, median district partisanship stayed almost exactly the same in both chambers, meaning the state senate slightly favors Democrats on paper and the HoD slightly favors Republicans on paper vs. statewide results.

This held up very well.  Wexton would very likely have lost the 1st draft VA-10 to Cao while Spanberger landslided in the 1st draft VA-07 with all of Prince William in it (assuming she didn't lose the primary to a Prince William Dem).  Wexton and Spanberger had nearly the same margin of victory on the final map. 

yea, I did long think that Spanberger and Wexton would finish quite closely. I met both of them, and both are extremely nice. I do find Wexton a weak campaigner, but to be fair, Biden 2020 is not a baseline of VA-10. However, I think the natural lean of that district is closer to Biden 2020 than Youngkin 2021.