2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad thing is a fair VA map would be closer to 7-4 (on 2020 numbers) and we out here debating over if a fair map gives a Republican a chance at 50% of the delegation. Tbf VA geography isn’t great for Dems, but still

FTR VA geography is great for dems. This is why we have so many 8-3's/9-2's in this thread - it's very easy top do while protecting minority access.

Just because an 8-3 map is relatively easy to draw doenst mean geography is favorable. A 6-5 map is also pretty easy, even a 5-6

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad thing is a fair VA map would be closer to 7-4 (on 2020 numbers) and we out here debating over if a fair map gives a Republican a chance at 50% of the delegation. Tbf VA geography isn’t great for Dems, but still

What are you talking about? Almost all the Republican voting counties are 70-80% Trump whereas most of the blue ones outside of the independent cities are solidly but much less lopsidedly blue, and that really helps Democrats. Places like Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Loudoun, and Prince William are and can in theory anchor their own congressional districts.

At the same time though, NOVA is in a corner (simillar to Chicago), and Central VA means a lot of mid-sized cities are lumped into R districts (Salem, Lynchburg, maybe even Charlottesville).

Also D areas of VA are higher turnout, and there is some packing going on in Nova and black parts of VA beach and stuff

[lfromnj]

Williamsburg seems to be the Greeley of Virginia.(retarded idea on COI grounds that stretches a district but probably doesn't affect overall partisanship that much)

Do note that to go from VA beach to Williamsburg you have to cross Poquoson which is almost as red as Williamsburg is blue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Williamsburg seems to be the Greeley of Virginia.(retarded idea on COI grounds that stretches a district but probably doesn't affect overall partisanship that much)

Interesting perspective. I don't necessarily disagree.

[Oryxslayer]

Williamsburg seems to be the Greeley of Virginia.(retarded idea on COI grounds that stretches a district but probably doesn't affect overall partisanship that much)

Do note that to go from VA beach to Williamsburg you have to cross Poquoson which is almost as red as Williamsburg is blue.

More or less agree. I don't like putting Williamsburg in the Hampton Roads seats partially for the same reason, partially cause you can then shove the pop deviation from D2 -> D3 -> D4, and then have D4 reach across southside taking in the unserved AA population along the state border.

The Williamsburg residents won't like getting shoved into a seat with the the red counties between Richmond and NOVA though, probably why it was preserved by the (now-defunct) commission.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A fair map based on VA's natural geography would probably not be more than 6-4-1 or so. Sure, you can draw 8-3 if you really want to (and it certainly would be a nice buffer against GOP gerrymanders elsewhere), but it's pretty ludicrous to call that a fair map.

[Skill and Chance]

A fair map based on VA's natural geography would probably not be more than 6-4-1 or so. Sure, you can draw 8-3 if you really want to (and it certainly would be a nice buffer against GOP gerrymanders elsewhere), but it's pretty ludicrous to call that a fair map.

I don't know where people are getting the idea that VA has naturally pro-Dem geography from?  NOVA is a quarter of the state, not a majority.  Other than Biden 2020 (mild Dem advantage because he flipped the exurbs) and Northam 2017 (basically neutral because he did really well in Hampton Roads and Richmond), which were blowouts, there has been a huge Dem disadvantage in close races.  McAuliffe won with only 4/11 CDs in 2013.  Even assuming he holds on to win again this year, he's likely to lose the CD map 5/6.  At the state legislative level, the pro-GOP geography is still operative.  Republicans held onto a bunch of narrow Clinton seats in 2017/19.

[Oryxslayer]

A fair map based on VA's natural geography would probably not be more than 6-4-1 or so. Sure, you can draw 8-3 if you really want to (and it certainly would be a nice buffer against GOP gerrymanders elsewhere), but it's pretty ludicrous to call that a fair map.

I don't know where people are getting the idea that VA has naturally pro-Dem geography from?  NOVA is a quarter of the state, not a majority.  Other than Biden 2020 (mild Dem advantage because he flipped the exurbs) and Northam 2017 (basically neutral because he did really well in Hampton Roads and Richmond), which were blowouts, there has been a huge Dem disadvantage in close races.  McAuliffe won with only 4/11 CDs in 2013.  Even assuming he holds on to win again this year, he's likely to lose the CD map 5/6.  At the state legislative level, the pro-GOP geography is still operative.  Republicans held onto a bunch of narrow Clinton seats in 2017/19.

None of the statistics you stated are how you measure geographic bias of a states partisan delegation - especially the 2013 district number given that the state's congressional lines were still gerrymandered at that point.

Geographic bias is a measure of how many people live in the other parties turf. If 90% of precincts vote 55-45 for party A, and then 10% vote 90-10 for party B, party B is at a huge disadvantage. Their voters are wasted in districts party A will win most of the time. This is what would occur in Wisconsin even under a fair map: lots of 55-60% R seats, and a smaller number of 70%+ D seats. But it also matters for nonvoters. If in a different scenario Party A's turf has more nonvoters than party B, despite both parties have the same number of voters in each are, party A will get awarded more districts through reapportionment even though the vote distribution is equivalent.

So what about VA? Well, lets look at the 2016 presidential results - by no means an accurate measure of VA's modern political geography but the narrowest election result included in DRA. For every 1 resident in a Trump precinct, there is 1.25 in a Clinton Precinct.

This discrepancy persists after we remove the isolated Dem areas like Roanoke. It gets even worse when we look at what Trump precincts border the strong Clinton ones - in the metro areas these are comparatively tight marginal precincts. Trump's safest precincts are in the rural west far from Dem strongholds, whereas the Dem strongholds can take in large numbers of GOP voters and still remain safe. This occurs naturally in NOVA of course: 20% of Trump's statewide votes came from the three safe Blue counties and their cities. Which is why we continue to get puff pieces on GOP activist efforts in the region: Trump voters are still numerous and connected in NOVA, they are just disconnected from the even more numerous and increasingly diverse Democratic neighbors.

[Virginiá]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

[Dan the Roman]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

[Skill and Chance]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Going to be really tough for VA Dems to hold the HoD if the governor's race is too close to call, though.

[Virginiá]

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Still possible they will have to have another legislative election in 2022 because they are supposed to be holding elections under new legislative maps already but obviously because of COVID that was not possible.

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2021/10/08/will-virginia-delegates-have-to-run-again-in-2022-a-judge-could-decide-soon/
https://shoredailynews.com/headlines/three-judge-panel-appointed-to-hear-arguments-in-redistricting-issue/

So in theory the winners of this election still might not get to fill those seats, although the new HoD map probably won't be any more favorable for Republicans than the current one.

[Mr.Phips]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Going to be really tough for VA Dems to hold the HoD if the governor's race is too close to call, though.

Well there are still the 2022 elections, which will likely be held on a slightly better map for Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Going to be really tough for VA Dems to hold the HoD if the governor's race is too close to call, though.

Well there are still the 2022 elections, which will likely be held on a slightly better map for Dems.

On the contrary, court-ordered 2022 HoD elections on a map drawn by the conservative-leaning VASC with no statewide elections on the ballot and Biden's approval in the 40's would be a disaster for Democrats.

*Unless things have gotten to the point where McAuliffe is dragging everyone else down?

[Lognog]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e3b88341-806b-4494-bf30-8340de0c5c77

I made one that is 6-5 D, safe for each party (Kain only got within 5 points of winning one of the districts).

5 majority minorities, 2 40% black

overall pretty compact

[If my soul was made of stone]

I tried my hand at a State Senate map:




21-19 Clinton, 24-16 Northam (the colors shown here), 26-14 Kaine. Five Black seats, one Asian seat (in south Loudoun/west Fairfax), five other "mixed" majority-minority seats. Norfolk is ugly like that to squeeze out an additional Black seat.

[Non Swing Voter]

Geography for the GOP is pretty bad on the state level when 1/3 of the seats are in NOVA and it's really hard for them to win any, even in a massive county like Fairfax.  You get 12 or 13 seats out of NOVA and Dems basically just need to win a few suburbs downstate to hold the senate.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1452362404751450116

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1452362404751450116

Great job VA dems.  You are absolutely pathetic and should all resign.  You could have easily made 8 safe democratic districts.  Now we'll be lucky to come out with the same 7-4 delegation.  These elected morons should all lose their jobs for this level of incompetence.

[Dan the Roman]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Going to be really tough for VA Dems to hold the HoD if the governor's race is too close to call, though.

Well there are still the 2022 elections, which will likely be held on a slightly better map for Dems.

On the contrary, court-ordered 2022 HoD elections on a map drawn by the conservative-leaning VASC with no statewide elections on the ballot and Biden's approval in the 40's would be a disaster for Democrats.

*Unless things have gotten to the point where McAuliffe is dragging everyone else down?

VASC I think will not want to commit suicide. This is not WI where every election involves personal vitriol. If you strike to kill you need to succeed. With trends being what they are in VA, I don't think there is a majority on the VA SC to strike to kill, or at least to do so hard enough to be successful. Note the GOP proposed maps for the Senate and HOD still had 20/51 Clinton seats.

And if you strike to kill and fail you basically ensure the Democrats will destroy the VASC which they can.

Given trends I think the VASC will do what the Constitutional Amendment intended. They will save the VA GOP from oblivion, and maybe give them a chance at legislative majorities in a very good year if everything goes right. And probably 4-5 House seats v. 2-3 on a D drawn map.

Democrats will grumble, when the vacancies come up in 2027 they will fill them with anti-gerrymandering good government types who care about things like the effiency gap and they will get better maps in 2031.

Ironically, Democrats in VA will be helped by the narrow majorities the VASC will give them, as it will prevent them from going hard left, and that will prevent them from self-destructing during the transition period of the 2020s.

[compucomp]

Bump. To all the Dems that lambasted the commission, you still want the VA legislature and governor to draw the boundaries?

[lfromnj]

Bump. To all the Dems that lambasted the commission, you still want the VA legislature and governor to draw the boundaries?

Dems still have the senate and they could drawn it before.

[compucomp]

Bump. To all the Dems that lambasted the commission, you still want the VA legislature and governor to draw the boundaries?

Dems still have the senate and they could drawn it before.

I don't know if mid-decade redistricting was allowed in VA, but drawing a gerrymander just before getting destroyed would have given the new party in power the political capital to do that.

Plus, if we plug in tonight's results into the 8-3 maps everyone was drawing, would they still be 8-3 or would they end up like 5-6 or 4-7?

[lfromnj]

Bump. To all the Dems that lambasted the commission, you still want the VA legislature and governor to draw the boundaries?

Dems still have the senate and they could drawn it before.

I don't know if mid-decade redistricting was allowed in VA, but drawing a gerrymander just before getting destroyed would have given the new party in power the political capital to do that.

Plus, if we plug in tonight's results into the 8-3 maps everyone was drawing, would they still be 8-3 or would they end up like 5-6 or 4-7?

In 2011 the legislative maps were passed before the 2011 elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Bump. To all the Dems that lambasted the commission, you still want the VA legislature and governor to draw the boundaries?

Dems still have the senate and they could drawn it before.

I don't know if mid-decade redistricting was allowed in VA, but drawing a gerrymander just before getting destroyed would have given the new party in power the political capital to do that.

Plus, if we plug in tonight's results into the 8-3 maps everyone was drawing, would they still be 8-3 or would they end up like 5-6 or 4-7?

In 2011 the legislative maps were passed before the 2011 elections.

Which is what should have happened if the census went as planned. The moment the census data release got delayed this became impossible, cause candidates needed to know what district they were going to campaign in for the fall. So both VA and NJ have to use their old seats - for now.

And we still might get the stupid 3 years of elections:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1455735826357293059?s=20