2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

honestly, this "commission" was a mess and it seems like it was for the best to just end it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

honestly, this "commission" was a mess and it seems like it was for the best to just end it.

The follow up tweet I feel is important - turns out that Tom Davis map was more critical then we knew.

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450089522386153475?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

honestly, this "commission" was a mess and it seems like it was for the best to just end it.

The follow up tweet I feel is important - turns out that Tom Davis map was more important then we knew.

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450089522386153475?s=20

Damn. Well I'm glad this info was unearthed before this map got any further.

[Brittain33]

This is my third cycle paying attention and I wasn’t prepared for how comprehensive and disastrous a sh**tshow redistricting was going to be in every state.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

honestly, this "commission" was a mess and it seems like it was for the best to just end it.

The follow up tweet I feel is important - turns out that Tom Davis map was more important then we knew.

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450089522386153475?s=20

Damn. Well I'm glad this info was unearthed before this map got any further.

As I've said, the VA supreme court will probably just pick special masters who design a minimal change map (which given trends could be a decent 8-3 D by middle of decade). That map reeks of bad faith on the GOP's part though.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is my third cycle paying attention and I wasn’t prepared for how comprehensive and disastrous a sh**tshow redistricting was going to be in every state.

Yea this cycle (my first) has really made me realize how ineffective, untransparent, and easily manipulated "independent commisions" really are.

Sadly I don't know an alternative. I have thought of a (very large) comission selected by the supreme court but that seems a bit unrealistic and equallly problematic

[Brittain33]

This is my third cycle paying attention and I wasn’t prepared for how comprehensive and disastrous a sh**tshow redistricting was going to be in every state.

Yea this cycle (my first) has really made me realize how ineffective, untransparent, and easily manipulated "independent commisions" really are.

Sadly I don't know an alternative. I have thought of a (very large) comission selected by the supreme court but that seems a bit unrealistic and equallly problematic

Yeah. I think Michigan is doing ok, and Iowa could be ok, and Colorado isn’t as bad as a gerrymander would be. I think there are elements that can be successful but only if assembled properly and there are safeguards against one party gaming the system (VA, IA). But some of these commissions are just dead on arrival - OH, NJ, VA failed immediately.

[lfromnj]

This is my third cycle paying attention and I wasn’t prepared for how comprehensive and disastrous a sh**tshow redistricting was going to be in every state.

Yea this cycle (my first) has really made me realize how ineffective, untransparent, and easily manipulated "independent commisions" really are.

Sadly I don't know an alternative. I have thought of a (very large) comission selected by the supreme court but that seems a bit unrealistic and equallly problematic

Yeah. I think Michigan is doing ok, and Iowa could be ok, and Colorado isn’t as bad as a gerrymander would be. I think there are elements that can be successful but only if assembled properly and there are safeguards against one party gaming the system (VA, IA). But some of these commissions are just dead on arrival - OH, NJ, VA failed immediately.

How is this ok?
Not even talking about Detroit but Ann Arbor here.

 Democrats with a trifecta would have been less able to gerrymander the state house under the old rules.

[Virginiá]

That map reeks of bad faith on the GOP's part though.

Not terribly surprising for a commission that was crafted and passed in bad faith on the Republican Party's part. The vehicle Republicans created to facilitate their future shenanigans was never going to be used by them for actual fair (or reasonably so) redistricting.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is my third cycle paying attention and I wasn’t prepared for how comprehensive and disastrous a sh**tshow redistricting was going to be in every state.

Yea this cycle (my first) has really made me realize how ineffective, untransparent, and easily manipulated "independent commisions" really are.

Sadly I don't know an alternative. I have thought of a (very large) comission selected by the supreme court but that seems a bit unrealistic and equallly problematic

Yeah. I think Michigan is doing ok, and Iowa could be ok, and Colorado isn’t as bad as a gerrymander would be. I think there are elements that can be successful but only if assembled properly and there are safeguards against one party gaming the system (VA, IA). But some of these commissions are just dead on arrival - OH, NJ, VA failed immediately.

Michigan has actually had to keep drawing maps cause they kept drawing ones with two much republican bias and Colorado was fixated on a 4-3-1 map for the longest time for no reason while the main democrat appointee just became toxic… so I wouldn’t say they’re resounding successes

[lfromnj]

Colorado was bad because groups like LULAC/Hispanic Chamber of Commerce/CLLARO demanded absurd "VRA seats" when they could have just pushed for the logical Aurora to Adams seat. The commission gave over deference to these groups but the R commissioners didn't actually let the gerrymander's pass. I don't think anyone was in the mood for splitting Denver or El Paso either.

[politicallefty]

That map reeks of bad faith on the GOP's part though.

Not terribly surprising for a commission that was crafted and passed in bad faith on the Republican Party's part. The vehicle Republicans created to facilitate their future shenanigans was never going to be used by them for actual fair (or reasonably so) redistricting.

Exactly. This setup was a trap set by the Republicans and Democrats fell right into it by passing it. Republicans only threw up this measure to forestall a Democratic gerrymander, not as a good faith good government reform. Virginia may not be the Southern state it once was, but I think Virginia Republicans are still very much Southern in nature and there seems to be a particular vindictive spitefulness from Southern Republicans in general. It's not a coincidence that this is the one commission that has broken down (not including the essentially joke pro forma commissions like Ohio or the nonbinding ones in Iowa and Utah).

The issue isn't with commissions in general. There are right things to do and there are wrong things to do. I'm not a fan of the single tie-breaker model, for example. There are also a variety of different factors and standards to consider and some states balance them differently. As noted before, Michigan's constitutional amendment prioritizes partisan fairness. Most of them have been created as a reaction to partisan excesses as opposed to crafting actual good government reforms. It's still preferable to legislatures that are only interested in maximizing partisan gain and protecting incumbents. That's why it's essential for Congress to establish standards for the entire country (or consider moving away from single-member districts, but I won't hold my breath there). I think another big problem is that districts now are too large and unwieldy, with some states having districts with well over 800k people now.

[Stuart98]

It's not a coincidence that this is the one commission that has broken down (not including the essentially joke pro forma commissions like Ohio or the nonbinding ones in Iowa and Utah).

Utah's actually hasn't broken down (yet). The crazy Rmander that some of them drew has lost the support of 2/3 of its authors and I'm decently confident that the maps the commission ultimately submits to the legislature will be fair (if somewhat weird). Whether the legislature adopts any of them or not is another manner entirely, to be sure, but I wouldn't count it out just yet.

[lfromnj]

So the commission is using incumbents addresses when drawing the districts and David Suetterlein in SD-19 is listed as being from Salem, while John S Edwards in SD-21 is listed as being from Roanoke.   Does this mean the D-mander SD-21 will live on?  I was thinking they could add all of Montgomery County to SD-21 to make it a bit cleaner.

Also is there any way to draw Joe Morrissey out of a district or are they stuck with him?

Very hard to draw Joe Morrissey out. He has a VRA seat and he wins the black vote quite well.  The best hope is gentrification to hit the seat hard enough.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's very clear that Democratic politicians are bad at what they do and should all retire and let competent people run the party.

[Virginiá]

I would certainly credit VA Dems for expeditiously passing many parts of their agenda since taking power, but yeah, the redistricting commission was really a major self-own, and of the kind that should disqualify some of them in the eyes of primary voters. Giving Republicans a chance to backdoor a favorable map for themselves is exactly the kind of thing they should be able to trust their party not to do, and somehow the Democratic-controlled legislature did just that. All they had to do was vote down the GOP's amendment and put forward their own, and yet, here we are. There was never any rush, either, despite what people tried to say prior to its passage. If they still wanted to go the commission route, Democrats could have had a better commission amendment on the ballot in 2022 which forced another redraw in 2023. Absolutely no excuses here.

[Oryxslayer]

Fresh start dem maps, this time clearly Dem maps. Second link takes citizen input from the first failures:

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/421/1

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/423/1

[Sol]

Fresh start dem maps, this time clearly Dem maps. Second takes citizen input from the first:

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/421/1

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/423/1

Ugh, that's ugly. Charlottesville with suburban Richmond isn't bad in theory, but the way the population map works out means that it insures a split Shenandoah Valley--which is way worse than putting UVA with Southside Virginia.

[Gass3268]

It's dead Jim

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1450843639576412169?s=20

[Nyvin]

It's dead Jim

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1450843639576412169?s=20

Working as intended.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sad thing is a fair VA map would be closer to 7-4 (on 2020 numbers) and we out here debating over if a fair map gives a Republican a chance at 50% of the delegation. Tbf VA geography isn’t great for Dems, but still

[Oryxslayer]

Sad thing is a fair VA map would be closer to 7-4 (on 2020 numbers) and we out here debating over if a fair map gives a Republican a chance at 50% of the delegation. Tbf VA geography isn’t great for Dems, but still

FTR VA geography is great for dems. This is why we have so many 8-3's/9-2's in this thread - it's very easy top do while protecting minority access.

[patzer]

It looks like a 10-1 should be easy if they weren’t worrying about bipartisanship

[wbrocks67]

So what's next? What can we realistically expect from the VA supreme court?

Also, how is the VA supreme court still a conservative majority in 2021?

[Spectator]

Sad thing is a fair VA map would be closer to 7-4 (on 2020 numbers) and we out here debating over if a fair map gives a Republican a chance at 50% of the delegation. Tbf VA geography isn’t great for Dems, but still

What are you talking about? Almost all the Republican voting counties are 70-80% Trump whereas most of the blue ones outside of the independent cities are solidly but much less lopsidedly blue, and that really helps Democrats. Places like Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Loudoun, and Prince William are and can in theory anchor their own congressional districts.