2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Oryxslayer]

Virginia

I figure it is time to finally start discussing redistricting and potential maps for 2021. I'll get these synopses going on most of the notable states in the coming days. Even though the final census numbers will not be out for a while, state governments are beginning to lock in for the 2020 cycle. Last night, Virginia locked in a (Liberal, not Dixiecratic) Democratic Trifecta that seems poised to align the Commonwealth with her Mid-Atlantic cousins. The new trifecta could stand for quite a while, thanks to NOVA migration making the state even more blue.

Redistricting History

Virginia republicans were riding high in 2010. In 2008, the democrats captured a majority of congressional districts, each with a different base. Democrats added the 11th onto their previous pack in the 8th, Perriello flipped the Southside + Charlottesville 5th, and Nye flipped the second. This brought the state to a 6-5 D-R gap. Obama flipped the state for the first time, truly unveiling the power of NOVA nationally for the first time. However, Virginia would turn out to be a democratic bloodbath in the coming years. Republicans rebounded in 2009, capturing the governorship and improving their position in the state govt. They wiped away all the dem gains in 2010, returning the state to its 8-3 breakdown. Nye and Perriello would prove to be one-termers, but the bigger scalp was the 9th’s Rick Boucher. Like many a southern dem, he had been there for as long as people could remember, anchored by popularity until partisanship finally caught back up. Connelly held on to what was increasingly becoming a diverse part of the NOVA stretch. The last democratic holdout was the State Senate.

Congressional Redistricting was therefore was primed to be a battle. The state house drew up their own plan that reinforced the 8-3 divide, locking down the 11th for team blue and reinforcing every other incumbent. Senate democrats meanwhile drew up their own plan which broke up the African American voters in the south, creating two easy opportunity seats in addition to improving other democratic opportunities. Neither side wanted to budge. Legislatively, the divide was solved by an agreement to ‘protect your own’ and saw the House and Senate draw up their own plans for their own chambers. The Republicans gerrymandered up the House, and the Democrats squiggled away the Senate. McDonnell unsurprisingly only found issue with the Senate map and through negotiations get the democrats to concede away on a few specific cuts. Legislators entered the 2011 Virginia off-cycle with new state lines but a deadlocked Congressional process.

Wikipedia map of the 2011 Congressional Redistricting Plan

2011 saw republicans capture the senate and with it unilateral control over the state. The 8-3 map passed on party lines through the senate and was approved by governor McDonnell. But that was not all, in 2012, after Virginia’s legal deadline for redistricting, the new senate republicans tried to reinforce their new majority with a new legislative plan. The plan was killed by the Republican house both because of the changes in brought to that chamber and because of the obvious legal consequences.  The case went to and was thrown out of the Virginia courts.

Since the 2011 Redistricting

What began as a drip became a tidal wave. I shouldn’t need to elaborate any further on how Virginia flipped from one side of the isle to the other. However, that change was precipitated by the 2015 redistricting. The new maps gave Democrats their second African American seat in the south, and the courts decision to limit the scope of redistricting to a handful of seats forced changes that would later benefit the democrats. The groundwork was laid for the 7th and 2nd to flip in 2018 with that decision to redraw the 4th. The 2016 election provided new data on the reach of NOVA’s democratic lean: it was here where the GOP legislature lost their majority. There really was nothing that they could have done to prevent these laws with the redistricting pen. In 2008, the GOP was drawing marginal McCain seats that would be hopefully held long term by GOP reps – marginal McCain seats were far to the right of the nation in 2008. Growth and the job boom brought in new families, enough so that even a small swing could push all the seats away. What was sowed in 2016 was reaped in 2017. From the republican perspective, Virginia is increasingly hard to gerrymander long-term. Their voters are packed into the Southwest, and tentacles would be needed to bacon-strip the suburbs – but this would easily be thrown by the wayside via a court.

2019 was merely the capstone to a long process that saw a southern state flip. The court redrawing the entire tidewater State house region was merely the icing on the cake.

2021

The Geographic Advantage

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: the Democratic geographic advantage. Looking at all precincts more democratic then Trump+9 (what you want for your Blue-seat foundations), we get a near 2-1 pop divide. The Democrats are not stranding much votes besides Roanoke in red territory, almost everything can be reasonability put inside a blue seat. These numbers just use the 2016 data, not the far more blue numbers that are present from far more recent elections. Even if the state draws the most fair map imaginable, it will tilt in their direction thanks to this advantage. The GOP get far higher totals in the West and Southwest which can easily end up all in just 2-3 seats on accident. It’s not hard to draw democratic supermajority maps with all the Clinton-Northam-Kaine seats bordering on safe.

Growth similarly benefits the democrats. Loudoun, and in general the greater NOVA, is growing like lightning when compared to the rest of the state. Unless the state legislature increases in size, legislative seats will be reapportioned from the GOP West/Southwest to democratic NOVA. Democrats hold all the cards because the GOP are self-packing themselves into the rural ‘dixie’ side of Virginia.

The new trifecta means that maps will be passed in 2021 before more legislative elections and preventing GOP input…unless the commission takes effect. This is the only potential wrench in the democrats gears from locking down 7-4 and then potentially going for more. This commission on paper in many ways is the republicans last effort to hold some power in the coming cycle. The commission is half made up of state legislators (equal either side), 4 are retired judges, and four are recommended non-politicians. The legislative leaders pick the judges and civilians, producing an equal divide. This is incentivized since both sides are necessitated to cooperate. This commission has no restrictions on partisan gerrymandering, communities of interest, or local authorities. Essentially then, the proposed amendment is seeking to establish a New Jersey style incumbent-protection commission. It would also be tilted towards the GOP, because they currently control the supreme court.

Now, the democrats can have their cake and eat it too. A majority of democratic voters support redistricting reform and want it in place in Virginia. However, a constitutional amendment like this is required to pass the legislature in two sessions before going on the ballot. It will pass the ballot, if it makes it there. Democrats though can look at this commission and make changes that increase its legitimacy: add more civic input, get rid of the legislative roles, add restrictions on communities of interest – make it more like California or Michigan. This redistricting bill would be a different bill then the previous, and itself would have the 4-year timer on it. Already the VA African American caucus is expressing displeasure that the current fair districts bill has no protections for their communities, and Northam's legislative agenda didn't mention the acting upon the previous bill. So, democrats can get away with not having redistricting reform in 2021, but still claim success in passing redistricting reform – if they so desire to take this obvious yet devious route. The shear volume of cash and the strategy behind it that went into the 2019 elections suggest dems certainly don’t want to hand over some of the kingdom’s keys to their recently defeated foes.

VRA-wise, the democrats have two AA seats in the south, and Connolly’s seat in NOVA is majority-minority coalition. Virginia has established a tradition though this decade’s court cases that the low-to-mid 40s is a fine AA% to have in your seat, as long as there is a reasonable amount of other dems alongside said AAs. If there are only three seats in NOVA, then the 11th can keep its Majority-minority status while the 10th becomes safe dem. It should easily be possible to draw 7 reliable democratic seats, even if you want your map to pass the ‘smell test’ and look fair at first glance.

A obviously gerrymandered ROVA Block

A more approachable, but still D-Leaning ROVA/i]

When drawing districts, it is best to think of Virginia as NOVA’s 5 seats vs ROVA’s 6 seats. ROVA needs the two AA seats, some fashion of a Virginia Beach/East Shore seat, and the rest is flexible. Excluding only the AA seats, ROVA has 4 other seats, which could be anywhere from 4-0 R to 2-2 tied. NOVA meanwhile has to have three seats at minimum in the ‘True Blue NOVA’ which would all be safe dem thanks to growth. Beyond that, the region could get bacon-stripped to produce a fourth Blue seat, It could be made compact with three dem seats and 2 gop ones, or the dems could mess with the 1st and make it a swing seat all while preserving the integrity of the regions communities of interest.

What’s left to decide

Not much after last night. There are only two big questions: how many seats will team blue hold in 2021, and if redistricting reform will be passed. If it is passed, what will be the shape of the said redistricting agreement?

[Oryxslayer]

Everything uses the latest data unless mentioned. However, I am a big supporter of drawing your maps in the '16 data for pop, then redrawing them in the '10 for the  partisan information which is gatekept to the '10 maps right now in most cases. You may therefore see some oddities in the coming weeks.

[Oryxslayer]

Also if you look West of Richmond and South of Nova  D's currently only hold 3 state house seats in a region with 2.5 million people. Sure its +24 Trump but they can definetely get a few more seats in this region.

Charlottesville currently has 1 packed D rep in an 80% district, A fair map would definetely have 2 D reps. However you can definetely get upto 3 D reps or even 4 if you are willing to use Eastern Lynchburg. I got 2 D+13 and one D+18 district by dividing Charlottesville 3 ways. D+2(from OG charlottesville seat)
Now next to Charlottesville there is another collegetown called Harrisonburg which clinton won by 24 and has 50k people. Another smaller town called Staunton is hillary +2 with 25k people. Add these 2 up with a few super red rurals to connect them and you get a Hillary +8 district. D+3
Take another seat using Danville+martinsville + a few black rurals in far south VA and you get another seat thats 44% black thats Clinton +10(super polarized). Likely D as its pretty black which means turnout could fall in an R wave. D+4
Finally shore up the radford/montgomery county seat. Its currently a tossup at Clinton +1, move it to Clinton +15 by removing the red rurals north and adding more of the college campus. This isn't even a gerrymander, this is a good COI map. This basically Wave proofs the seat from Lean D to clearly  Safe D. Anyway this gives D's an extra 5 seats to hold in a wave although 2 are slightly vulnerable(Harrisonburg and The Martinsville seat.)

Yeah the W/SW region is the only place  the Republican Gerry held for all 10 years because the region kept it's character for all 10 years. The universities are still universities and they are getting bluer - Obama was the first Dem to win Harrisonburg since the 20th century landslides for instance. It's the least flexible area so if Dem seats are drawn then they are likely to stay blue. Danville though is interesting: the southside in general has piss turnout during the off season: see how dems almost lost the nominally Clinton+10 HD75 last week, and couldn't even muster realistic opposition for the other southside seats. Shrinking AA pop is also a problem down here, so the rural southside seats probably need to be bluer unless VA Dems attach their elections to the regular midterm calendar schedule.  

[Oryxslayer]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

[Oryxslayer]

If I was to draw a non partisan independent map I would draw something like this. Ik the green district isn't the most clean but it includes a lot of colleges. Its also Trump +5 and has only 2 county splits. Anyway the rest of the map is pretty clear
A Clinton +3 Loudon district(I underpopulated this one to account for growth by 2020)
The other 3 in NOVA are Safe D.
The regular Yellow and Red AA districts.
Light blue white Richmond +suburbs+ rurals to west = Trump +1. I wanted to include Hanover but it made the map too ugly. Spanberger clearly gets this. Purple = VA beach district, pretty simple as always as it should have a light GOP lean.
Safe Ds are AA + 3 NOVA. Safe Rs  are Western VA and Tidewater.


Overall its a 5-2 -4 map. I guess it slightly favors the D's and if one wants they can make the college district a Safe R district to make the map both cleaner and make it 5-3-3.

The green district also gets blacksburg and lynchburg so take that as you will

So after looking at this map for a while, I then decided to redraw it with more 'selective' choice of precincts. The end result is perhaps the only way VA dems can get a 9 - 2 map to work. All I have to say is that I'm surprised this thing is even possible. The map is even study  partisan-wise. I guess it's a testament to the absurd geographic advantage that you can get a (not ugly) 9 - 2 going without stranding any Dem voters or compromising AA opportunity. Of course 3 of these seats right now are competitive, but 6-2-3 with all three leaning blue is impressive. Every present D is in their seat. Like I didn't even need to carve up Alexandria or Arlington!



VA01 (Green) 59/36.2 Clinton (50% White)
VA02 (Purple) 51.5/42.6 Clinton
VA03 (Red) 57.4/38.2 Clinton (AA opportunity)
VA04 (Yellow) 56.8/39.9 (AA opportunity)
VA05 (Teal) 48.3/45.6 Clinton
VA06 (Grey) 67.3/27.9 Trump
VA07 (Lavender) 50/44.1 Clinton
VA08 (Light Blue) 61.1/33.4 Clinton
VA09 (Pink) 73.6/22.9 Trump
VA10 (Light Green) 59/35.1 Clinton
VA11 (Grey-Blue) 59.2/35.1 Clinton

Look how they massacred my boy
Yeah overall its not that big of a difference with regards to COI besides one district but you got a much safer 9-2 in the end when mine was probably 5-4-2.

Yeah yours was a fair map. I just never thought Charlottesville to Radford seriously worked, I always assumed the Red rurals would outvote the blue islands. But once I saw it did, I had to mess around with it on a Max-Dem style map. Interestingly, the seat voted for Obama by more that Clinton, which stands in contrast to almost every other blue seat where obama either underpreformed or matched Clinton - while doing several percentage better nationally.

[Oryxslayer]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded.  

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

Everything is with current projections. Using 2010 Data, NOVA just barely passed the pop for three districts in PW, Fairfax, Loudoun, and the cities. The Republicans used this to their advantage with VA-10 reaching beyond the core NOVA, and VA-01 reaching in. In 2020, this core NOVA is projected around 3.4 districts of the 11. That's still impressive growth, even if it doesn't demand a fourth district. Even more impressive when you remember that every 11 people added to the state raises the district pop requirements by 1, AKA a miniature version of the California paradox. This distribution favors the democrats, since they have NOVA votes to add into a 4th seat and make it competitive if they are nice, or it allows four districts to have ~70% of their pop in NOVA and 30% cracked outside, if Dems are aggressive.

[Oryxslayer]

Not that this bill has amendments so that the commission no longer truly an attempt by the GOP to hold some say in this as they lose control of the state. The bill was opposed by  Filler-Corn for instance until the amendments.

Read more here: https://mynorthwest.com/1744814/after-delay-virginia-democrats-advance-redistricting/

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1235680451039293455

Hey look it's that dirty trick I expected earlier.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not quite sure what you are doing with VA04, but I'm also getting the feeling that a 6-4 incumbent protection map is going to be hoisted up by the partisans that is clean enough for the retired judges/citizens. It'll be a map that benefits the GOP for the decade in NOVA since the dems will be packed and cracked into 3 safe seats, but it will benefit the dems in Richmond since Spanberger would get a Safe seat. I say 6-4 since geography kinda leaves VA02 with not much wiggle room, so the partisans will probably find a way that the district ends up as a 'fair fight' based on whatever metrics are best in 2021.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's what I did when I tried the 6-4-1 deal last week - there's still ways to get Riggleman and Cline to remain seperate yet distinct from each other while spanberger also gets a safe seat. Obviously VA02's lines would be subject to whatever adjustments are needed to preserve partisan equity, but I'm fairly sure Williamsburg will need to be in there to ensure VA01 remains safe GOP for all 10 years, even with NOVA growth.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's what I did when I tried the 6-4-1 deal last week - there's still ways to get Riggleman and Cline to remain seperate yet distinct from each other while spanberger also gets a safe seat. Obviously VA02's lines would be subject to whatever adjustments are needed to preserve partisan equity, but I'm fairly sure Williamsburg will need to be in there to ensure VA01 remains safe GOP for all 10 years, even with NOVA growth.

I did say there were legislators but also citizens who may not be inclined to excessively do a bipartisan gerrymander especially if it did look a bit dirty, albeit your VA 5 to 7 does work . Id probably just have Spanberger expand into Chesterfield while losing the arm to Harrisonburg(she would probably prefer it anyway, not wanting a whole 200k of her citizens to come from liberal college towns) while still remaining pretty Safe as double digit Clinton is safe for someone like Spanberger, but I think yes a 6-4-1 seems like a median outcome if the commission doesn't deadlock. If they can agree about the first 10 districts then it will probably just be bickering about how D VA 2 should be. Im pretty sure VA 1 could take in Williamsburg there, its still would be Trump +15-16 and still has the tidewater area which has a lot of ancestrally D whites who are trending R. Btw your map is with 2016 populations as our VA 9ths look quite different?

Nah, it's 2018 pop. The VA09's are more similar than they seem. You kept Roanoke County whole and took Craig and park of Giles to fix the pop, whereas I put those two in VA09 and exhumed the 10K using a micro-cut into Roanoke.

On Harrisonburg, yeah I doubt Spanberger would want too much non-Richmond pop in the seat. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the citizen forums argue that two relatively close college towns (albeit separated by mountains with narrow roads) should be considered a COI and paired. Once the citizens suggest something the party that benefits doesn't let go of it - see WA in 2010 and the minority-majority Dem pack in WA09.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, here's another thing to keep in mind: Riggleman may loose his nomination. Bob Good claims he has a majority of delegates ready to oust Riggleman over that gay marriage incident. Of course, the future of this convention is uncertain given the virus, and if a primary just ends up getting ordered than Riggleman will probably keep his seat.

https://twitter.com/VaPoliticalNews/status/1258150366060953600

Concerning redistricting, Good lives and works around Liberty University in Lynchburg. This would clean up the incumbent residency issue between VA05 and VA06.

[Oryxslayer]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

[Oryxslayer]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

[Oryxslayer]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

Because VRA is a thing. VA03 and VA04 both need to have high AA population, ideally about over 42%ish.

[Oryxslayer]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

Because VRA is a thing. VA03 and VA04 both need to have high AA population, ideally about over 42%ish.

Aren't Scott and McEachin popular enough that they could easily get re-elected without it? The 4th may be a bit dicey in a red-wave year, but especially McEachin in the 3rd, I don't see how these VRA seats are as absolutely necessary as say AL-07 or SC-06.

Doesn't matter if someone is popular or not. Minority access is a crucial part of the law, and it must be guaranteed. Any map of any state is a non-starter without maintaining minority seats that are presently protected - unless the states minority population and patterns of settlement have significantly changed of course.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, for those wondering I would pair the Charlottesville region, which is very different from most of its neighbors, and Richmond, even under a fair map. Why? Well, here's your dominant COI which influences the cultural perceptions of the resident population.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, for those wondering I would pair the Charlottesville region, which is very different from most of its neighbors, and Richmond, even under a fair map. Why? Well, here's your dominant COI which influences the cultural perceptions of the resident population.

Ok then put VA beach with Cheasapeake instead of Norfolk, and of course Hanover must go with the Richmond white district before Charlottesville gets shoved in.

You Know, I mostly agree with you, albeit with specific modifications...

[Oryxslayer]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

[Oryxslayer]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

That's good, right?

Yes, basically means that you don't have former districts impart their influence over the shape of new ones. See Arizona for how this shakeup influences things. It also is important in states with concentrated growth where multiple districts move from one side of the state to the other, so you let new and old districts follow community lines rather than having their surroundings mutually eat or disgorge precincts with no rhyme or reason.

Its also important to note here how the citizen commissioners are exhausted with the explicitly legislative ones.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1433428442712711170

They look like pretty bland maps so far, nothing crazy or special.

House and Senate proposals for the Fairfax region released. There are a few different proposed alignments for both chambers regarding the specified region in the linked PDF.

EDIT: got ninja'ed

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1435670069862879237?s=20

Greater NOVA district proposals. There's some good stuff in here, also some weird proposals like B2 Loudoun.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1439258925845651463?s=20

Legislative proposals are now accessible on the site. I don't these have any relation to the NOVA lines already drawn by the commission in its various hearings.